Stimulating Package

[Juliar]

Roll up Roll Up and wipe your troubles away!


The Socialists will be hoping for a HANDOUT they can waste on grog, drugs, pokies, fast food to make them sick, and other waste.

But the ScoMo Govt won't follow Labor's Ruddical incompetency here.


Government prepares to spend billions amid recession fears
Phillip Coorey, John Kehoe and Matthew Cranston Updated Mar 5, 2020 — 7.19am, first published at 12.01am


Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg are preparing to spend billions to try and ward off recession. Dominic Lorrimer

The Morrison government harbors real fears Australia is at risk of falling into recession from the coronavirus, as it prepares a multibillion-dollar economic stimulus package which will focus heavily on tax relief measures.

The Reserve Bank of Australia estimates the coronavirus impacts on education and tourism exports has already slashed Australia's economic growth in the first two months of this year by 0.5 of a percentage point.

That's on top of the bushfires subtracting about 0.2 of a percentage point off growth.

RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle told a Senate committee on Wednesday night the bank had analysed visa and students numbers and expected a 10 per cent drop in activity already with a month still to go in the March quarter.

Big business groups said one of the Morrison government's tax breaks to be included in the imminent stimulus package, a business investment allowance, must be as broad-based as possible to be effective and not subject to low spending caps, or limited to investment above normal levels.

Small business is calling for direct cash injections, tax forgiveness, and wage assistance to ward off forecast cash flow problems.

The government stimulus package, set to be announced next week and which will target jobs, small business cash flow and capital investment, will come at a cost of "billions'' to the federal budget, sources confirmed.

Inside government there is now a view Australia was at ''real risk of recession''.

Likely deficit
As the government continues planning for the May budget in parallel with the stimulus package, ministers have also been told to curtail new spending requests to protect the “structural integrity” of the budget after the coronavirus stimulus and bushfire relief is deployed.

This is a recognition the budget is now most likely to fall into deficit and Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants to maximise the chance of recovery once the crisis has passed.

Market economists are calling on the government to quickly pump an initial $4 billion into the economy to cushion the coronavirus downturn, because the economy's growth will probably be negative in the March quarter.

Following a phone hook-up on Wednesday night with the International Monetary Fund, Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy will on Thursday reveal his department's estimate of the hit to economic growth for the March quarter as a consequence of the bushfires and the coronavirus outbreak.

There's no point giving people money if businesses have nothing to sell them.

— Government source

Treasury has already warned the fires would reduce growth for the March quarter by 0.2 per cent and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg warned the additional impact from the coronavirus would be "substantial'', an upgrade from his previous assessment of ''significant''.

The fragility of the situation was exposed on Wednesday when national accounts figures for the December quarter, which was relatively unaffected by the fires and not affected by the virus, showed the economy grew by 0.5 per cent.

Supply-side hit
Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said the coronavirus would have "a material impact on economic growth over the next two quarters''.

If both quarters were negative, that would constitute a recession – the first since Paul Keating's infamous "the recession we had to have" in 1990-91.

The Morrison government stimulus package, which has grown in scale over the past week, will focus on tax measures to address what is viewed as a supply-side hit to the economy, rather than one of demand.

For this reason, the government will not be handing out cheques along the lines of the cash handouts Labor distributed in 2008 during the global financial crisis.

"There's no point giving people money if businesses have nothing to sell them,'' said a source.

December's mid-year budget update lowered the projected budget surplus to $5 billion for 2019-20, but the forecast surplus is now expected to slide into a deficit.

Mr Morrison has signalled that he wants any deficit to be temporary, without recurrent spending after the crisis passes.

He wants to avoid repeating the perceived mistakes of the Rudd government baking in higher permanent spending into the budget over the medium term after the 2008 global financial crisis passed and the economy recovered.

New investment
An exception could be the business investment allowance, which was originally slated for the May budget, is all but certain to be brought forward to next week.

The allowance, worth over $1 billion a year, offers a bonus tax deduction on new investment.

A similar scheme was introduced by Labor in 2008 during the GFC and Labor promised another similar scheme before the last election, as an alternative to a company tax cut.

When we are over this economic shock, we want the Australian economy to be stronger.
— Josh Frydenberg

Mr Frydenberg said a new scheme "is obviously under very serious consideration''.

"This is something that the business community has asked for and if you look abroad, some other countries have put in place fiscal responses which include support for business and investment,'' he said.

"We want obviously Australian businesses to get the support through this economic shock. But when we are over this economic shock, we want the Australian economy to be stronger.

"We want to have greater productivity and investment is a key part of that. So obviously that will be a focus for us."

Downside for retirees
In a proposal to the government, the Business Council of Australia said the allowance must be as broad based as possible so as to reduce complexity and not distort investment decisions.

The bonus up-front depreciation should apply to assets to be principally used in Australia for the principal purpose of carrying on a business.

It should apply to new assets that have not been installed or previously used and the policy should become effective the day it is announced.

Mr Frydenberg also said the government will reduce deeming rates for pensioners for the second time in less than a year on the back of Tuesday's decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the official cash rate to a record low of 0.5 per cent.

He said the interest rate cut, which the government demanded the big banks pass on in full – which they did – had a downside for retirees.

"I understand it is also very difficult for savers ... we are now having another look at the deeming rate.''

National Seniors Chief Advocate Ian Henschke said another cut would act as an economic stimulus.

“The top rate needs to be lower by at least 1.5 per cent and the lower by 0.5 per cent,'' he said.

"As the cash rate has dropped, the higher deeming rate of 3 per cent on savings over $51,800 is now double the typical return on a term deposit.

“To deem pensioners are earning 3 per cent is unconscionable.

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/go ... 304-p546n1

[Juliar]

The Socialists with their tongues hanging out for a Kruddy style handout will be disappointed.

The finance minister told Sky News on Friday that the government would focus on encouraging businesses to invest in and employ workers, appearing to rule out cash payments to all individuals, although measures to help sections of the population such as pensioners are still on the table.




Cormann rules out Rudd-style cash splash to boost Australian economy as coronavirus bites. Package of stimulus measures due in ‘the next few weeks’, finance minister says
Paul Karp and Ben Butler Fri 6 Mar 2020 12.13 AEDTLast modified on Fri 6 Mar 2020 13.34 AEDT


Households should not expect cash payments as part of the government’s stimulus package to counter the effects of coronavirus on Australia’s economy, Mathias Cormann says.

Australian households should not expect Kevin Rudd-style cash payments to stimulate the economy in the wake of coronavirus, Mathias Cormann has warned.

The finance minister told Sky News on Friday that the government would focus on encouraging businesses to invest in and employ workers, appearing to rule out cash payments to all individuals, although measures to help sections of the population such as pensioners are still on the table.

The Morrison government is working on a stimulus package believed to include a new business investment allowance, a boost to pensioners’ income via deeming rates, and measures targeted at affected industries such as tourism.

Cormann said the package was expected in “the next few weeks”, well ahead of the May budget, which is expected to show the budget is in deficit despite the government forecasting a surplus of $5bn as recently as December.

The package comes as the Treasury secretary, Steven Kennedy, revealed that the department was forecasting a 0.7% contraction in economic growth in the March quarter, equivalent to lost activity worth about $3.5bn.

On Friday Cormann said the government wanted to “keep businesses in business and keep Australians in their jobs”.

“Obviously we are going to enter a pretty challenging period, both from a public health and from an economic point of view,” he told Sky News.

“But we also know on the other side there will be a strong recovery and we want to be sure we put Australia in the strongest possible position to maximise the recovery.”

Cormann said the uncertainty and anxiety caused by the external shock of coronavirus was reducing business investment, although he also conceded investment “needed to be boosted in any event”.

Asked if the government could boost the unemployment payment, Newstart, as Labor has proposed, Cormann replied that he would not “speculate” on individual measures but the focus of the package was to bring forward business investment.

He said the stimulus would consist of “targeted, responsible and scaleable” interventions but did not rule out relief for some individuals.

But asked if voters should expect a cheque in the mail, Cormann replied: “We will not be pursuing a cash splash in the reckless Rudd-Gillard fashion, no.”

In the wake of the global financial crisis, the Rudd government supplied stimulus in several stages, including $8.7bn for cash payments to pensioners and family tax benefit recipients in October 2018, and $12.7bn for cash payments of up to $900 for most taxpayers in February 2009. The measures helped avert a recession.

Cormann noted that although the Coalition had supported the initial phase of Labor’s stimulus during the GFC, which he described as “proportionate”, the then opposition was “very concerned and totally opposed” to the second phase.

At a press conference in Canberra, Scott Morrison said that economic conditions had changed “very significantly” since 0.5% growth in the December quarter, and noted weak retail figures, released on Friday, showing a 0.3% contraction in seasonally-adjusted terms in January.

Morrison told reporters stimulus would be “something that is needed for a fixed period of time, that can be delivered with maximum effect, that also at the same time does not undermine the structural balance of the budget over the medium term”.

“So when the economy bounces back, which it will, the budget will bounce back in the same way,” he said.

In a new report on Friday, the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said Australia was “vulnerable” to a recession and slashed its estimate of growth for the country in 2020 by a full percentage point, from 2.2% to a miserly 1.2%.

S&P said unemployment, which is now 5.2%, could rise to 5.3% because the sectors of the economy hit hardest by the coronavirus outbreak – travel, tourism and education – were labour-intensive and the casualisation of the workforce made people easier to sack.

“If the unemployment rate rises by up to one percentage point, as our models suggest, this will further dampen consumer confidence, drag on spending, and could stall the nascent property market recovery,” said its chief Asia-Pacific economist, Shaun Roache.

Across the Asia-Pacific region, S&P expects the outbreak to carve $211bn from the incomes of households, companies and governments.

Roache said a recovery would now be later in the year than S&P previously forecast “due to a harder hit to China’s economy in the first quarter, viral transmission outside China, and tighter financial conditions”.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... irus-bites

[Juliar]

The hidden impacts of the Corona Virus.



COVID-19, charities and misplaced stimulus
David Crosbie Thursday, 5th March 2020 at 8:26 am

The news is all about coronavirus. But, what does this mean for charities, asks Community Council for Australia CEO David Crosbie.


man wearing basically useless face mask which just protects others from the wearer!!!!

I think it is important to start any discussion about coronavirus with a little perspective.

Each year in Australia, influenza kills on average 3,500 people. The best predictor of who is susceptible is age – 3,000 of these deaths are people aged over 50. Death rates for influenza in Australia are below 0.2 per cent of people who contract the disease. Estimates suggest close to half a million people die each year from influenza worldwide.

The last global pandemic – the H1N1 or swine flu – resulted in around 19,000 hospitalisations and 200 deaths in Australia. It is estimated that one in five people worldwide contracted swine flu and the death rate was 0.02 per cent (less in Australia).

Coronavirus (properly known as COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2) has so far resulted in one death in Australia and less than 20 hospitalisations. Reports indicate COVID-19 is more deadly than influenza – early estimates suggest death rates from COVID-19 are close to 1 per cent. This may change over time as it is likely that many people with COVID-19 only experience mild symptoms not requiring any medical intervention and are therefore not counted in the statistics. Many experts believe it is now inevitable that COVID-19 will continue to increase in prevalence. Although many of us may eventually contract COVID-19, most of us will experience relatively minor symptoms. As with influenza, the most susceptible to COVID-19 are the elderly.

These alarming statistics about influenza (a death rate higher than our road toll) are exactly the reason governments and health experts are so concerned about COVID-19. No-one wants a disease equivalent to influenza spreading widely in our communities, even if most of us will only experience mild symptoms. Clearly, preventative measures are warranted and the likely increase in the disease will place increased pressure on our health services, so we need our health system to be prepared as best it can. This does not mean everyone stocking up on toilet paper.

While health and wellbeing are important for all of us, in practice Australian charities are most likely to experience the effect of COVID-19 more in relation to its impact on our economy than our health.

“If cuts are made to support a business stimulus package it is the poorest that are likely to face a reduction in government support.”
The cumulative impact of bushfires and COVID-19 means an already brittle economy is now facing the very real possibility of a recession – two quarters in a row with negative GDP growth. The loss of economic activity (tourism, international trade, etc.) will translate into a loss of government revenue at exactly the time when governments need to stimulate investment and job creation to maintain growth.

History suggests governments look to business incentives and tax cuts to drive increases in economic activity, while at the same time seeking to make as many cuts to their expenditure as possible. This approach would not be good news for charities.

In a more evidence-based world, governments might recognise the economic benefits of providing increased spending power to the poorest in our community, significantly raise Newstart, and boost the funding of charities. It should be noted here that charities are more likely to use increased funding to employ people, unlike business where government incentives may well be used to deliver increased dividends for company owners.

If cuts are made to support a business stimulus package it is the poorest that are likely to face a reduction in government support, and it is charities that will likely face a reduction in the government funding available to support their programs and services.

Many charities are already doing it tough. In some cases, charities have been waiting over a year for promised government funding. Some areas of government funding have already become so competitive and uncertain that charities relying on government support no longer feel confident in offering ongoing employment contracts. Casualisation of the charity workforce is increasing. Charities trade in trust. The casualisation of staff can reduce the opportunities for organisations to develop strong ongoing relationships with their communities.

What governments have repeatedly failed to recognise or accept is that the charities sector is the biggest employer in the country with over 1.3 million people employed across the sector. Any boost in the activity of charities not only provides more employment, it also delivers real community benefit through increased community support and activity.

Even within the government’s short-term stimulus frame of reference, there are many opportunities to provide leveraged community benefit as well as boosting employment and the economy. If a capital fund could be established to enable charities to upgrade their facilities, improve their work environments, or offer more dignified surroundings to their clients, the benefits to the economy and our communities would be far greater than a similar investment in business infrastructure. There is a huge unmet need in this area as most charities would sooner offer more services to their community than invest money into their capacity in areas like purpose-built facilities, a more efficient computer system, or safer work environments.

Some in government bemoan what they describe as the inefficiency of charities, but there is rarely any acknowledgement that their own government’s approach to charities often drives increased inefficiency. If you reduce funding in real terms to charities while expecting them to provide the same level of programs and services, the inevitable outcome will be that charities have to cannibalise their organisational infrastructure in order to stay viable and continue to offer services to their communities. Achieving increased organisational efficiency invariably requires some up-front investment in infrastructure and capacity. Where is the investment coming from to support a more efficient charitable sector?

Governments often see the work of charities as discretionary, an area where cuts can be made without significant harm. Support for stimulating business activity on the other hand is seen as a high priority.

We can all look forward to the day when governments think beyond the politics of a short-term crisis, beyond the desires of business to be more profitable, and genuinely focus on broader economic and community investment opportunities. Ensuring adequate social safety nets and enabling charities to be more effective in their work are good starting points.

The real impact of COVID-19 and bushfires is likely to mean more charities go out of business, not because that makes sense for our economy, not because it makes sense for our communities, but because the government myopia prevents them from seeing the huge potential for genuine economic and social stimulus through the charities sector.

How good would it be if COVID-19 helped remove blind spots?

About the author: David Crosbie is CEO of the Community Council for Australia. He has spent more than 20 years as CEO of significant charities including five years in his current role, four years as CEO of the Mental Health Council of Australia, seven years as CEO of the Alcohol and other Drugs Council of Australia, and seven years as CEO of Odyssey House Victoria.

David Crosbie writes exclusively for Pro Bono News on a fortnightly basis, covering issues of importance to the broader not-for-profit sector.

https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/20 ... -stimulus/


COMMENT

Michelle O'Flynn says: March 5, 2020 at 9:43 am
Sent yesterday to: Mr. Martin Hoffman NDIA CEO ; Hon Anne Ruston, Minister for Families and Social Services ; Hon Stuart Robert, Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme ; Hon Michelle Landry Assistant Minister Children and Families ; Hon Luke Howarth, ; David Moody, CEO NDS ; Ian Montague, State Manager NDS Qld ; Natalie Siegel-Brown, Public Guardian,
Dear Eminent and Very Important People,

I am writing to you with concerns for people with disability living in congregate care arrangements in light of the potential for transmission of COVID-19 “Coronavirus”.

There appears to be a lack of concerted and cohesive policy for ensuring the health and safety and well-being of vulnerable people with disability who have heightened risk of contracting this disease due to the nature of their living conditions.

I note that the website for National Disability Services has information about protection of health and wellbeing of staff but no statement about ensuring protection for the health and wellbeing of the people for whom they provide supports and services. In fact the website also notes the following: “At this stage there is no formal advice from the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) for providers relating to the coronavirus. We will monitor and when it becomes available, include this advice here.”

I am deeply concerned that as ever, vulnerable people with disability are low on the agenda for government. Even the recent announcements for targeted economic stimulus puts business ahead of the needs of people with disability.

Our organisation is an independent community-based systems and individual advocacy organisation and a community legal service for people with disability. Our mission is to promote, protect and defend, through systems and individual advocacy, the fundamental needs and rights and lives of the most vulnerable people with disability in Queensland.

QAI’s constitution holds that every person is unique and valuable and that diversity is intrinsic to community. As a Disabled Persons’ Organisation, people with disability comprise the majority of our board and their lived experience of disability is our foundation and guide.

We request that urgent explicit directives and actions are publicly made to promote and protect the health and well-being of people with disability with particular regard to those who are supported by direct support providers.

It is imperative that this is undertaken imminently for people living in congregate care arrangements where workers may come and go, and in some circumstances, where the premises may have multiple purposes. An example of this is a group home that was utilising a spare room as an informal respite service on an ad hoc basis.

Further to this we seek your urgent advice as to what procedures might be instigated if a number of people in shared care/living arrangements should become ill. Will they be sent to hospital? What measure will be implemented if people are confined to their homes? What protections will be implemented that do not in any way inhibit their rights to conduct their lives as other citizens in similar circumstances?

I look forward to your individual responses, so that I may convey them to other advocacy organisations across Queensland.

Yours sincerely,
Michelle O’Flynn
DIRECTOR | Queensland Advocacy Incorporated

[BigP]

Be careful Julie , all that cutting and pasting will give you carpal tunnel syndrome, And stay vigilant, you wouldn't want to be run over by someone with
the Chinese car owner virus

[Juliar]

BigP, calm down as I know all this anti-Socialist stuff stresses you.

It is a LOT SIMPLER to simply show the original article and then to highlite the interesting anti-Socialist parts than to make some clumsy copy in stumbling "English" as most Lefties do.

Some stuff is behind a paywall too so reproduction is essential to show the anti-Socialist message.

Rest easy BigP, as the Greeny controlled Labor Party does not have a Snowball's Hope in Hell of winning the next election.

You must appreciate ScoMo's masterful handling of the Bushfires that the Greenies lit and burnt Australia to the ground and the Corona Virus crisis.

Just think what an absolute disaster it would be now with panic in the streets if the Greeny controlled Labor Party had gotten in and RESTARTED the BOATS and brought thousands of Illegal Invaders all dripping with Corona Virus into Australia infecting and killing thousands of Australians.

By now the GG probably would have dismissed Shifty old Shorty for gross mismanagement of the Australian economy.

[BigP]

BigP, calm down as I know all this anti-Socialist stuff stresses you.

It is a LOT SIMPLER to simply show the original article and then to highlite the interesting anti-Socialist parts than to make some clumsy copy in stumbling "English" as most Lefties do.

Some stuff is behind a paywall too so reproduction is essential to show the anti-Socialist message.

Rest easy BigP, as the Greeny controlled Labor Party does not have a Snowball's Hope in Hell of winning the next election.

You must appreciate ScoMo's masterful handling of the Bushfires that the Greenies lit and burnt Australia to the ground and the Corona Virus crisis.

Just think what an absolute disaster it would be now with panic in the streets if the Greeny controlled Labor Party had gotten in and RESTARTED the BOATS and brought thousands of Illegal Invaders all dripping with Corona Virus into Australia infecting and killing thousands of Australians.

By now the GG probably would have dismissed Shifty old Shorty for gross mismanagement of the Australian economy.

""Rest easy BigP, as the Greeny controlled Labor Party does not have a Snowball's Hope in Hell of winning the next election.""

Dont bet on it asswipe,

[Juliar]

BigP is a set in concrete Socialist who loves the Socialist handouts.

[Black Orchid]

Roll up Roll Up and wipe your troubles away!

LOL that's pretty amusing.

[BigP]

Roll up Roll Up and wipe your troubles away!

LOL that's pretty amusing.

But Julian looks like a farkin dick with that red hair ,,

[Juliar]

But BigP that's kind of disloyal!

Your famous Socialist HERO Juliar Gillard had red hair.