Post
by Mattus » Wed Jul 04, 2012 12:22 pm
Have you moved to the big bad, AM? If so, my condolences.
In fact Obama is still on the front foot. You have to understand that America is not one country to be won over, but rather it's 50 different states.
Now in America's great Orwellian tradition, all states are equal. But some are more equal than others. In order to win office, a candidate needs to win 270 points. They gain points by getting the majority of votes in a state. How many points a state is worth depends on the relative population of that state. California, for example, is worth 55 points. Obama is big in California. Romney is not.
If you wins state, you win all the points for that state.
Romney is big in states like Alabama (9 points) and Nebraska (5 points). Now if you think BillyRay Cornhauler is going to get energized and excited about voting for a Yankee Massachusetts Mexican loving socialist for president you're daft! But even if every redneck and his 37 illegimitimate children are energized enough to catch a bus on voting day it won't make much difference. Whether you win a state by 1% or 100% the score is the same.
As it stands Obama has 142 of the 270 points he needs from "sure thing" states, like California, Illinois (20 points), New York (29 points) and new jersey (14 pts). Romney can count on states like Texas (38 points) and Tennessee (11 points), but all up only has 76 points he can absolutely count on.
So what are the important states then, if most of the election is already decided? Well you're looking at Florida (29 points) and Michigan (16 points) and Ohio (18 points). Absolutely the state of (un)employment is going to play large in states like mish and Ohio. But I think when obamapac and get up start hammering the vulture capital attack ads backed by the "I killed bin laden yo" and reminds mish of who actually owns general motors now, there's a very good chance that he will swing these states blue.
Remember that obama may not be a fantastic commander in chief of the world, but he's an awesome campaigner, while Romney is wooden and out of touch. In the end, I don't think it will even be that close.
Which is a shame, because even though I'm a commie leftwad and proud of it, I would vote fr Romney. And not just so I can tell people at parties that I once shook the hand of the president of the USA, but because the miracle he performed sweeping out corruption a d turning the books around as governor of Massachusetts, in the face of a staunchly liberal state legislature and electorate, was amazing. He's not much chops at the stump, but his business brain is exactly what America needs right now.
"I may be the first man to put a testicle in Germaine Greer's mouth"
-Heston Blumenthal
