Iowa Hiho!

[Plough]

Did we note that Herman Cain endorsed Newt? Can't imagine that helping matters.

They probably did a deal at the swingers club!

[AiA in Atlanta]

First Cain the Clown endorses Newt. Now Trump the Turd endorses Romney. One fires people on TV. The other in real life.

[Mattus]

As polls begin to close in Nevada, the question becomes not will Romney win, but by how much? Right now he's a good chance of holding more votes than all the other candidates combined, which would be a first for the 2012 campaign.

Early polls show Ron Paul just ahead of Newt in second place, which is a great result for him. This may strengthen as the night wears on. Ron Paul's supporters may be few, but they are foaming at the mouth. They are young and don't mind a late night. Newt's supporters are likely to head home to bed when the nachos run out and the speeches start to drag on. Ron's already off in Minnesota stumping for the next caucus, but expect a stirring victory speech if he holds second place in Nevada.

Remember, Las Vegas is funding Newt's campaign. If he doesn't surge ahead of Paul in the next hour to a more respectable second place, this will hurt him, and will embarrass his funding.

[Mattus]

Well, the show's not over yet. Romney's won it handsomely, but he's lost 6 or 7 % of the numbers he had in 2008. Paul probably won't eek into second, trailing Gingrich 18% to 25% with nearly half the caucuses reporting. Not the knockout punch to Gingrich it could / should have been so the circus moves on.

Paul spent millions in Nevada (Gingrich hasn't spent a dime, but his little mobster friends no doubt did). Paul managed to up his tally over his 2008 results by about 5%, but without enough to pinch second place it's a big let down. There will probably be a lot of pressure for him to get out before super Tuesday. But he handles that sort of pressure well.. Just turns his hearing aid off.

[AiA in Atlanta]

Gingrich: "If you can't tell the truth as a candidate for president, how can the country possibly expect you to lead as president?"

[Jovial Monk]

So 5% went from Mitt to Paul? That about the extent of TeaBagger influence these days?

[Mattus]

So 5% went from Mitt to Paul? That about the extent of TeaBagger influence these days?

Well I spoke too soon. With now 91% of the caucuses counted Mitt's back to within 1% of his 2008 result, and is more than the others combined. Pretty solid win!

According to entrance polls, those who described themselves as tea partiers in Nevada voted for Romney, in stark contrast to Tea Partiers in South C where they voted for Newt. Funnily, they're not voting for Ron Paul, the gran-daddy of the teaparty movement. Maybe they hate Obama more than they love Ron Paul? Or maybe the movement has fragmented and lost organization since Fox lost interest.

In any event, it's hiho off to Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri we go tomorrow(ish). Can Mitt run the tables?

[Jovial Monk]

So, things are looking up for Mitt and Gingrich is pissed as a newt?

[Jovial Monk]

Not a drop, your Honor!

Global mail on the real election campaign:
Election proper—Obama’s likely strategy:

Don Rose prefers to draw an analogy with Democratic president Harry Truman, who ran for re-election in 1948 amid widespread predictions that he would lose by a big margin. Truman ran a campaign against a Republican-controlled Congress which had stymied his "Fair Deal" package of reforms. "Obama is going to run a Trumanesque campaign against Congress," Rose predicts. "He'll say this is a Congress that voted to kill the popular Medicare program, to turn it into a voucher system. He will argue that the Republican candidate is beholden to the Republican Congress.

"Obama chose much too long to maintain the myth of bipartisanship," adds Rose. "He should have got off that hobby horse much earlier."

http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/ob ... g-game/28/

[Jovial Monk]

Obama No Longer Doomed, According to Fresh Poll

President Obama -- the guy whose economic policies inspired the creation of the Tea Party -- is the guy more Americans trust, compared to Mitt Romney at least, to handle tax policy, a new poll from ABC News and The Washington Post finds.

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics ... oll/48330/

Then again, with unemployment going down, partly to a drop in the participation rate but also genuine job creation, I had thought Obama had a good chance. The Repugs primaries would be helping Obama too.

Romney criticizes Obama for having same position on contraception as Governor Romney in 2005
President Obama this week of ordering “religious organizations to violate their conscience,’’ referring to a White House decision that requires all health plans - even those covering employees at Catholic hospitals, charities, and colleges - to provide free birth control. But a review of Romney’s tenure as Massachusetts governor shows that he once took a similar step.

http://www.americablog.com/2012/02/romn ... -same.html