Iowa Hiho!

[Plough]

So Romney takes Florida comfortably. Is this the end for the rest of them?

[annielaurie]

Probably.

[Mattus]

The end? Over? Are you kidding me? I bet you guys switched to watching Birds of a Feather reruns after the first set of Raf vs Novak too.

Please. It's not over.

National Poll as of 31/1/2011:

Gingrich: 30.3%
Romney: 27.8%
Santorum: 16.8%
Paul: 12.5%

It's not over until the leader has more votes than the other runners combined. Even Ron Paul, who has the least number of voters would tie for the lead if Rick Santorum dropped out and all his voters crossed over to Paul.

It's a bloody long way from over. Romney isn't even in the front seat, nationally. He has 65 delegates and needs 1444 to win. You may be temped to count out Paul, but the next race is Nevada. That's Ron Paul country, son. It's a caucus to boot, and we've seen Santorum win a Caucus already.

Hold on to your balls, ladies, Raf vs Novak has got nothing on this. It'll be over in August.

[Plough]

So Mattus, which are the big states that will really decide the outcome? What is your opinion on whom will be more popular/more likley to take these? EG Will Californication play a major role? How important is Nevada? What about Texas etc?

[Neferti]

Thanks, Mattus. My American friends are still not saying much. They "hate" Obama though, regardless of who he is and what he has done.

Don't understand this irrational hate at all.

It's all the stuff that floats around via email as "jokes". It's much the same with Julia Gillard .... people in power get loathed by the plebs.

[Neferti]

The end? Over? Are you kidding me? I bet you guys switched to watching Birds of a Feather reruns after the first set of Raf vs Novak too.

Please. It's not over.

National Poll as of 31/1/2011:

Gingrich: 30.3%
Romney: 27.8%
Santorum: 16.8%
Paul: 12.5%

It's not over until the leader has more votes than the other runners combined. Even Ron Paul, who has the least number of voters would tie for the lead if Rick Santorum dropped out and all his voters crossed over to Paul.

It's a bloody long way from over. Romney isn't even in the front seat, nationally. He has 65 delegates and needs 1444 to win. You may be temped to count out Paul, but the next race is Nevada. That's Ron Paul country, son. It's a caucus to boot, and we've seen Santorum win a Caucus already.

Hold on to your balls, ladies, Raf vs Novak has got nothing on this. It'll be over in August.

The Yanks really know how to drag something out and make it Hollywood, don't they?

It won't be over until the Nation gets to vote. Obama versus .....? Does it matter, really?

PS What sort of name is Newt? If he wins can you imagine the jokes that will go around the Net? For that matter what sort of name is Mitt?

[Mattus]

So Mattus, which are the big states that will really decide the outcome? What is your opinion on whom will be more popular/more likley to take these? EG Will Californication play a major role? How important is Nevada? What about Texas etc?

I don't want to undervalue what Mitt has achieved in Florida. He ended up with more votes than both Gingrich and Santorum combined. It's a decisive win. But look at what he had to do to achieve it.

Florida spending: (candidate and superPAC combined)
Mitt Romney: $15.8 million
Newt Gingrich: $3.4 million

Can Mitt sustain that level of effort and expense? It's a tough ask. Lets look at what's coming up.

Nevada Hiho! Saturday Feb 4th.
Nevada is a caucus, we've covered how these work. In 2008 Romney won the Nevada Caucus by a massive 37% margin (and then went on to lose the nomination to McCain... see what I mean about this being not over yet?). Clearly second place was in 2008 was Ron Paul. Romney and Paul have both maintained links and networks in Nevada and should storm it in, in theory. No recent poll data to go on, but in December Romney's lead over Newt was down to 3 points.

Why? Because Newt's biggest financial baker (to the tune of $10 million out of the $16 million his superPAC has raised so far) is a single mobster... I mean casino owner from Las Vegas. Sheldon Adelson owns Nevada, no doubt, and he has a hard on for Newt. To illustrate this, because Sheldon is an observant Jew, he wouldn't be able to participate in the Saturday morning Causcus, so the state is going to hold him a Caucus all of his very own, at 7pm. In a venue called Adelson Educational Campus. Getting the picture?

Santorum's not giving up on Nevada because it's a caucus. Also there will be cameras. Ricky likes cameras.

Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri Hiho! Tuesday Feb 7th
128 delegates up for grabs, some of these are full on Southern states, two caucuses and a primary. Newt leads in Colorado - though I think Romney will peg it back, Santorum and Newt should do well in the others. Missouri is a two way race between Santorum and Gingrich. It's entirely possible that Newt will have more delegates than Romney by this time next week. Watch out for an endorsement from Crazy Shelly, though. She's out of the race but can still make a king in Minnesota.

Maine Hiho! Feb 11th.
More caucuses. These ones are funky. The barbeques actually take place all month, but the results of a "straw poll" will be revealed on Feb 11th, even though more bbqs will take place afterwards. Anyway, no one really cares because, hey, it's Maine. There's only 24 delegates, and it'f fucking Maine. They'll probably like Romney because he's a redsox man, and Paul because they live in unabomber shacks and eat beef jerky.

You can then catch your breath for a few weeks before Arizona and Michagan on Feb 28th, and Wahsington State on Mar 3rd. Then it's money day.

Super Tuesday Hiho March 5th
437 delegates up for grabs from Alaska (Newt's), Georgia (Newt's), Idaho (Newt's), Massachusetts (Mitt's), North Dakota (Who cares?), Ohio (Newt), Oklahoma (Newt's), Tennessee (Newt's), Vermont (Romney's), and Virginia (Romney's but only because Newt forgot to register on the ballot.)

Texas' 155 delegates come up on April 3rd. Texas is Ron Paul's home state, but he only got 5% of the vote there in 2008 (McCain won). Chuck Norris has endorsed Newt Gingrich, so Texas will vote Newt.

There's a series of later states. I really don't know if it will still be in doubt when California's 172 delegates are up for grabs on June 5th. Fittingly, the last primary will be Utah on June 26th. Gee.... I wonder who Utah will vote for?

[Neferti]

It's like a football game or a tennis match for you, hey? Mattus? Or even a Horse Race? Which horse do you think will win? Mitt or Newt.

Somehow, I think Obama will get a second chance. He hasn't done anything for his fans to hate him for.

Regardless ........... what happens in America doesn't mean that it has a flow on down here. Annie.

[Mattus]

It's like a football game or a tennis match for you, hey? Mattus? Or even a Horse Race? Which horse do you think will win? Mitt or Newt.

Yes. I am Dr Gonzo on the campaign trail. This forum is my mojo wire.

This thread has hit 1000 views. There's hope for PA yet.

[AiA in Atlanta]

Did we note that Herman Cain endorsed Newt? Can't imagine that helping matters.