Oh dear... socialists think that can manipulate the market

[lisa jones]

Now .. my on-topic posts in here are directed at Mr Leftwinger .. with whom I am having been having an awesome discussion for some time.

I will return here again AFTER Mr Leftwinger has come back .. so that we can continue that discussion.

[Outlaw Yogi]

Ahh the above 2 trolls are back .. where is that ignore button again ?

If you weren't so busy on your fairy stories, maybe you could remember

[IQS.RLOW]

I want IQ to see this. Not sure wtf happened to him tonight. He suddenly went all quiet on me for some reason.

I've seen it and the most notable thing is your avoidance of a valid question asked of you.

Answer. Now.

[lisa jones]

Hmmm Mr Leftwinger's not been in yet.

[IQS.RLOW]

lol

[Leftwinger]

Ok, I'm supposing we've all seen this. International investment rating agency UBS has downgraded ANZ and is no doubt looking critically at Westpac....

Arrears rose alarmingly. Early warning sign for consumers?

ANZ’s arrears levels have risen sharply. Since September its >30 days arrears have risen 41% to $5.8b, while >90 days are up 26% to $2b.
We believe higher arrears are heavily skewed to mortgages, primarily the 2008 vintage First Home Owners across Australia (not just QLD).
Although at ~65bp 90 day mortgage arrears are still low, this sharp rise is an ominous lead indicator for the domestic economy.

Alarms ring on rising mortgage arrears

ANZ and Westpac's rise in mortgage arrears highlights an "alarming" problem lurking in the broader economy, say analysts.
As Westpac today reported a 7 per cent rise in its closely watched cash profit to $3.17billion, analysts at UBS said ANZ's sharp rise in arrears -- or overdue debt -- was an "ominous lead indicator for the domestic economy".

The warning came as Peter Esho, chief market analyst at Cityindex, said a similar rise in arrears in Westpac's results today "suggests mortgage stress is rising", particularly in recent months.

ANZ reported yesterday a sharp rise in arrears since September, with more than 30 days arrears rising 41 per cent to $5.8bn, while more than 90 days jumped 26 per cent to $2bn, with the majority related to its Australian mortgage business.

UBS analyst Jonathan Mott, who today cut ANZ to neutral, said the arrears are heavily related to first home owners across the country who piled into housing on the back of the government's incentive scheme post the global financial crisis.

"This sharp rise is an ominous lead indicator for the domestic economy," said Mott, adding the rise was the most surprising element within ANZ's first-half result.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... 6049758390

Now we shouldn't read too much into it - the arrears are coming off a fairly low base. However, the sharp jump is concerning in a time when unemployment is below 5% and interest rates payable on your average mortgage are fairly low by historical standards. It indicates what should be obvious - house prices have risen to dangerously high levels and all it takes from here is a relatively small rise in the cost of living (fuel and food - both of these are beyond the government's control) and some people who took on huge mortgages are beginning to get tipped out.

In general, the news continues to deteriorate...

South West leads national mortgage misery – Australian property bust deepens


Households south of Perth are now among the worst in Australia for home loan defaults, and the situation is only getting tougher for WA homeowners.

Recent data from various reputable sources indicate that the South-West of WA was currently either leading the nation or fighting for a podium position in terms of long-term mortgage delinquencies – mortgage-holders running into arrears by 90-plus days.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s bi-annual “Financial Stability Review” from March, which analysed the nation’s finances up until January 2011, suggested the South-West was experiencing unusually high arrears rates as compared to the other parts of Australia.
The RBA defined the South-West as the south western corner of the State stretching from Mandurah to Augusta in the south and then east past Albany.

This region was now ranked third behind the Gold Coast and Western Sydney in terms of long-term delinquencies.

http://www.australian-real-estate.net.a ... t-deepens/
We always knew that people could not keep taking on more and more debt relative to their income forever and that at some point, the private sector needed to repair it's balance sheet. Each day I suspect more and more that we have reached that point. If the federal budget is tight as promised, it will likley exacerbate the woes of the housing market, though we should be careful not to blame the federal budget for a process that clearly began a full one year ago and a full six months before any floods or cyclones.

[Leftwinger]

Just more of the same....

WA's property slump is now the worst in 20 years


WA's property market has fallen into the worst slump in nearly two decades, the latest government figures reveal.

Activity in the housing market has fallen 15 per cent in just 12 months and more than one-third since the height of the boom in 2005-06, according to Landgate, the government's official land information authority.

The depressing news follows data revealing Perth median house and unit prices fell for the third consecutive quarter during the three months to March and show no sign of stabilising.

http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/was-p ... 1ek9p.html

Of course, the article has to contain the obligatory spruik......

The buyers have the sellers' expectations and the sellers have the buyers'," Mr Bourke said.

However, he was more optimistic than Mr Bradford, saying an increase in the number of sales in the past month, which were too recent to be included in the Landgate figures, marked the beginning a slow recovery.

"We're starting to cut into that oversupply, albeit in a minor way," Mr Bourke said.

So even though prices are still highly unaffordable to large numbers of people in real terms, they will soon begin to grow again. A long, slow fizzle out seems more likely to me.

[Jovial Monk]

While families and businesses continue to deleverage and repair balance sheets I doubt prices will do anything but soften. Incredibly, the RBA still wants to raise rates further, that would turn a retreat into a rout!

[lisa jones]

So even though prices are still highly unaffordable to large numbers of people in real terms, they will soon begin to grow again. A long, slow fizzle out seems more likely to me.

- Leftwinger

Hmm possibly.

I'm not overly fussed because the areas within Sydney which I concentrate on .. remain more or less unaffected.

Bottom line? Position.

[lisa jones]

I've been looking at properties for most of this evening .. and studying a few property reports as well Mr Leftwinger. There are areas which are positively booming in Sydney atm.

It all comes down to taking a closer look at certain areas. And that takes time and dedication.