Australia on verge of recession

[Bobby]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy ... d3b664224b


Mark Bouris warns Australia now on the ‘verge of a full-blown recession’

One of Australia’s top finance experts has issued a grim warning about the economy -
and shared a telling clue about what’s to come.

Mark Bouris
3 min read
December 11, 2024


But now, the negative impacts of high interest rates outweigh the benefits.
High interest rates have slowed the economy to the point whereby we’re on the verge of a full-blown recession.
High interest rates are killing household budgets because the cost of servicing mortgages has skyrocketed.
As a result, households are spending less money at the shops.
That means businesses are seeing their sales tank at the same time as their costs rise.
If the situation gets any worse for businesses, bosses will have to cut their costs.
That means they’ll have to let go some of their workers, which will drive unemployment and see people forced onto the dole.
This is a recipe for disaster, and the Reserve Bank can’t let it happen as a result of its one-dimensional anti-inflation crusade.

By the way, the situation out there is worse than the economic figures out from the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest. Because the economy is being propped up by government policies.
First of all, record-high immigration is artificially inflating economic growth.
That’s hiding the full extent of the pain households and businesses are feeling at the moment.
The same goes for public sector spending.
The majority of new jobs being created at the moment are in the public sector.
The taxpayer is paying for all of that.

Meanwhile, the private sector is struggling.
Business investment is down.
New private sector jobs aren’t being created.
But the boom in the public sector is hiding this.
It’s making things look better than they really are in the economic data published by the ABS.
The RBA must take this into account, just as it has to take into account the supply side of the economy.
You may be led to mistakenly believe that the only way to kill inflation is to hike interest rates.
But that’s not true.

One of the core drivers of inflation at the moment is electricity bills.
But high interest rates won’t bring down power prices.
The only thing that will bring down power prices is building more baseload power stations and increasing domestic gas supply.

The same goes for grocery prices.
One of the reasons grocery prices are so high is because the supermarket system in Australia is a duopoly.
Woolworths and Coles control most of the market.
That means they can charge high prices without losing customers to competition offering lower prices.
Again, interest rates won’t do anything to boost competition in the supermarket sector.
That’s a job for the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).

This is why the RBA should hand down a rate cut in February, especially considering the rest of the world is already doing it.
In New Zealand and Canada, rates have already come down by 1.25 per cent.
In the EU, rates have come down by 1.1 per cent.
In the US and Switzerland, they’ve come down by 0.75 per cent.
In the UK and Korea, they’ve come down by 0.5 per cent.
Let’s hope the Reserve Bank follows in February.
Because if they don’t, we’ll trade high inflation for a recession.

[tllwd]

Australia's unemployment rate is rising, with Deloitte estimating that up to 100,000 Australians could be unemployed in the coming months.

Australia's economy grew just 0.1% in the last quarter of 2023. The RBA's revised forecasts indicate that unemployment will rise, but GDP growth will remain positive.

[mellie]

Australia's unemployment rate is rising, with Deloitte estimating that up to 100,000 Australians could be unemployed in the coming months.

Australia's economy grew just 0.1% in the last quarter of 2023. The RBA's revised forecasts indicate that unemployment will rise, but GDP growth will remain positive.

Remember Keatings recession we apparently had to have back in the early 90s? When Liberals get back in, expect to see them in for a number of years because Australians won't forget the 2020s "struggles" even our middle class have unnecessarily had to endure, regardless of "Covid". Labor will blame covid of course and the previous Liberal government, but at the end of the day, Labors immigrated well beyond our means, hence housing crisis, crime, education, health and all public sectors have buckled under the pressure.
It's going to take a numbers of years to get back on track, but you will get those who like usual, expect a new government to fix things overnight.

We are one of the highest taxed nations on earth, we can afford to sustain and repair the damage done to our public sectors, but we need to demand better.

Australians need to be more vocal in general, we've always been too chill, and we tend not to complain about things until faced with chaos ourselves. What's happening in public health, education, housing ( both public and private are suffering) due to increased pressure ...the crime in Alice Springs is a national disgrace, should be declared a state of emergency.
THIS WILL IMPACT ALL AUSTRALIANS REGARDLESS OF WHERE WE LIVE, THE TRICKLEDOWN EFFECT WILL REBERERATE THROUGHOUT ALL AUSTRALIA BECAUSE WE ALL HAVE TO FOOT THE BILL!!!!

It's not just Australians, there's gangs of immigrant's taking over the streets simply because they can.
They've seized upon an opportunity to take over the existing organised crime gangs in Alice, and there's simply not enough resources, police , community, health etc to do something meaningful about it at the present under a government who's on it's way out the door and is deliberately trying to make things difficult for the incoming government.

Immigrants engaging in criminal activities need to be deported, along with their families ( custodians) they arrived with. Why should they be allowed to stay when they are destroying our economy and our own way of life.

Deportation and detention for youths regardless of their cultural identity.
Drastic times call for Drastic measures.

Nows not the time to pander to the PC brigade or those who genuinely mean well but really have no idea or aren't prepared to take care of these criminals inside their home's themselves.

Bring the military in .... there's not enough police to fulfil the promises Labors made.

Open military reform boarding schools for wayward juveniles and youth, up to 25, and build towards getting them on track and becoming useful members of society.

If my child was a repeat offender, and the authorities told me they were going to incarcerate him/her with a view to providing military education and learning a trade, I'd probably kiss their feet.

These parents are against reform because most of them are as antisocial and dysfunctional as their offspring. They know no better and cannot see the bigger picture. This is why we have governments, to take care of these issues.

Apples don't fall far from the tree.

Military boarding schools for wayward youth citizens ( regardless
of their cultural/ sexual identity- we are all Australians!) and deportation for non Australian citizens.

The gender you were assigned at birth should determine the facility you are incarcerated in, except for the rare few who are born hermaphrodites, in which case, the court decides.

1 flag
1 national anthem
1 people


Fed up with divisive politics disrupting our society for political point scoring purposes+ votes, especially our youth and those who are impressionable and quite vulnerable.

Finally, this needs to be a federal government reform, not left to the responsibility of individual state governments.

It's too important for us NOT to be on the same page about this.

Needs to be actioned immediately or we'll end up a global embarrassment and not even tourists will feel safe coming here.

[mellie]

Australia's unemployment rate is rising, with Deloitte estimating that up to 100,000 Australians could be unemployed in the coming months.

Australia's economy grew just 0.1% in the last quarter of 2023. The RBA's revised forecasts indicate that unemployment will rise, but GDP growth will remain positive.

Remember Keatings recession we apparently had to have back in the early 90s? When Liberals get back in, expect to see them in for a number of years because Australians won't forget the 2020s "struggles" even our middle class have unnecessarily had to endure, regardless of "Covid". Labor will blame covid of course and the previous Liberal government, but at the end of the day, Labors immigrated well beyond our means, hence housing crisis, crime, education, health and all public sectors have buckled under the pressure.
It's going to take a numbers of years to get back on track, but you will get those who like usual, expect a new government to fix things overnight.

We are one of the highest taxed nations on earth, we can afford to sustain and repair the damage done to our public sectors, but we need to demand better.

Australians need to be more vocal in general, we've always been too chill, and we tend not to complain about things until faced with chaos ourselves. What's happening in public health, education, housing ( both public and private are suffering) due to increased pressure ...the crime in Alice Springs is a national disgrace, should be declared a state of emergency.
THIS WILL IMPACT ALL AUSTRALIANS REGARDLESS OF WHERE WE LIVE, THE TRICKLEDOWN EFFECT WILL REBERERATE THROUGHOUT ALL AUSTRALIA BECAUSE WE ALL HAVE TO FOOT THE BILL!!!!

It's not just Australians, there's gangs of immigrant's taking over the streets simply because they can.
They've seized upon an opportunity to take over the existing organised crime gangs in Alice, and there's simply not enough resources, police , community, health etc to do something meaningful about it at the present under a government who's on it's way out the door and is deliberately trying to make things difficult for the incoming government.

Immigrants engaging in criminal activities need to be deported, along with their families ( custodians) they arrived with. Why should they be allowed to stay when they are destroying our economy and our own way of life.

Deportation and detention for youths regardless of their cultural identity.
Drastic times call for Drastic measures.

Nows not the time to pander to the PC brigade or those who genuinely mean well but really have no idea or aren't prepared to take care of these criminals inside their home's themselves.

Bring the military in .... there's not enough police to fulfil the promises Labors made.

Open military reform boarding schools for wayward juveniles and youth, up to 25, and build towards getting them on track and becoming useful members of society.

If my child was a repeat offender, and the authorities told me they were going to incarcerate him/her with a view to providing military education and learning a trade, I'd probably kiss their feet.

These parents are against reform because most of them are as antisocial and dysfunctional as their offspring. They know no better and cannot see the bigger picture. This is why we have governments, to take care of these issues.

Apples don't fall far from the tree.

Military boarding schools for wayward youth citizens ( regardless
of their cultural/ sexual identity- we are all Australians!) and deportation for non Australian citizens.

The gender you were assigned at birth should determine the facility you are incarcerated in, except for the rare few who are born hermaphrodites, in which case, the court decides.

1 flag
1 national anthem
1 people


Fed up with divisive politics disrupting our society for political point scoring purposes+ votes, especially our youth and those who are impressionable and quite vulnerable.

Finally, this needs to be a federal government reform, not left to the responsibility of individual state governments.

It's too important for us NOT to be on the same page about this.

Needs to be actioned immediately or we'll end up a global embarrassment and not even tourists will feel safe coming here.

"Safe schools " are not safe schools and the community at large has made their feedback clear.
We don't want unisex toilets or transgendered teachers assisting our vulnerable children into their bathers at aquatic centres for swimming programs.
Males in males bathrooms, females in females bathrooms and parents rooms for parents who need to attend to their young children's bathroom needs.

Labor has mislead Australia's into believing that Australians are ok with their overly liberal policies, especially concerning sexualising kids in primary schools with information they simply don't need.

It's time to pump the breaks on this insanity before it's too late.

[mellie]

Am I old-fashioned?
No, I'm actually gen- X, however had I been born a couple of year's later I would have been Gen Y.

I consider myself politically centrist, but feel this craziness needs to end.

We are seeing kids in classrooms identifying as pot-plants and animals.... this insanity knows no boundaries because our government enables , encourages people to be non-conformist in exchange for votes.

The objective is to destroy capitalism by destroying our youth and economy with it, to create the perceived need to install a new order. A socialist regime more compatible with their foreign bedfellows.

Labor is a wrecking ball, what we need is a strong committed centrist Liberal government that's not afraid to offend.

People will be offended, absolutely, but if something isn't done soon, they'll be a lot more offended when they realise they've played right into Labors divisive politics designed to strip them of their true identity and citizenship. This is what identity politics is all about..... to divide and sell us out.

Identity politics was never about "inclusion " "compassion " " tolerance " etc.....was simply a means of dividing and destroying our sense of community and true Identity which is that we are all Australians.

Scott Morrison began with good intentions, as do so many PM'S, however not all are capable or even willing to follow through and remain committed to building towards a safer, more economically stable economy.

What we need is a "stayer" someone who is interested in being the PM of Australia for the long-haul, not someone who wants their golden pension after 3 year's then to retire at Cococabana.

Morrison wasn't a stayer, Albanese never intended to be a stayer, what we need is a strong united centrist government that is willing to make the tougher decisions for this young country, that's required to put us on the global stage, and in a positive light.
I believe Liberals are better equipped to make this happen, compared to Labor, however I wouldn't like to think that we are compelled to vote for the better of two evils.

For once I'd like to vote with the knowledge that the party I vote for is strong, dependable, and in it not just to win it, or for themselves....but for the long haul that's needed to repair the damage thats been done since Howard left.

Australians expect better than just an electoral win.
Australians aren't going to accept that all politicians are liars, so this is the standard we should have to accept.

Social media has made it possible to make each and every one of them accountable and they can no longer hide behind the smokescreens they used to. AI , Social media, everyone has access to it now.

[mellie]

Two Australian political leaders I am able to say thankyou to.

John Howard & Bob Hawke


The rest have been lacklustre to say the least. They've been welchers, abandoning their country's for their own personal gain or needs. Because society keeps telling us that we must be kind to ourselves first, take care of ourselves, it's the era of self-absorption, and this needs to change. You can't be a public servant for the purpose of serving your own needs.
It's evident across all public sectors, especially public schools who continue to abandon their students because they feel the need for a little "self care". The public sector is top-heavy, this includes our beurocrats and all public sectors. Everyone's just so "entitled " when the whole purpose is to serve other's.
I'm not suggesting that public servants should be self-sacrificing matrys, but I do think there needs to be a calling at least, not for them to become public servants simply because they didn't score high enough to get into something else.
There's a desperate trend among public schools teaching staff to complete as much PD modules as possible to assume leadership roles and get out of their classrooms.
This and apply for grants for themselves ie research.
This means schools have to pay 2 × wages for 2 principals. The acting principals and the ones off completing secondments enjoying a paid holiday or working, researching , writing papers etc.
Perhaps it's time we fixed things so teachers are more likely to stay, so many graduate's feel dissolutioned and are becoming home-schooling teachers or CRTS.....I know some who've left the profession before even getting their feet wet, and this is not what Australia needs.
A bunch of teachers who hate their jobs.
And it's not about the money, it's about the politics itself that's cheesing them off.
If more principals taught classes their staff are teaching instead of requesting CRTs, we'd be better off.

A schools leadership makes all the difference and the public sector appears to be attracting the wrong types of people to lead schools. Particularly the public sector sadly.

If there's something wrong with the principal ( leadership), then schools struggle to keep staff and this impacts on the whole school community.

Similarly....
An incoming political leader should address his/her priorities clearly for Australians to cast an informed vote, be transparent and fair yet have enough gumption to follow expectations, promises through.
What we are seeing are party leaders more concerned with slagging off their opposition, pleasing party sponsors, shareholders, the corporate sectors and themselves.
Is it time we reformed the gold pension?
Perhaps it should be calculated in accordance with how many years of service as PM?


Just my pov, for what it's worth.

[tllwd]

We don't want unisex toilets or transgendered teachers assisting our vulnerable children into their bathers at aquatic centres for swimming programs.
Males in males bathrooms, females in females bathrooms and parents rooms for parents who need to attend to their young children's bathroom needs.

You sound like Russian

That's why WOKed Western governments punished Russia with sanctions and the proxy war

[mellie]

I am fine with the immigration of decent law abiding refugees, I am just having difficulty with our politicians blatantly ignoring citizens.

Russians are presided over by a dictator, one who has zero regard for human life, and will happily use his nations youth as cannonfodder .
Putin could care less about what his citizens want either, but I think Australia is in a unique position to change things here, call the shots.

We need to halt immigration from certain regions that aren't conducive to a harmonious Australia.

Sudanese, Pallistinians, Pacific islanders ..... the usual problematic groups that foul the place up.

Not all of course, there's plenty of the above who are of decent character, however unless we know for certain, we shouldn't be accepting anymore.

We have a housing crisis and families living in cars and tents, working families with jobs, it's ridiculous.

Charity begins at home, not by chucking PNG money for a football club in exchange for their loyalty towards us?

Garbage, a football team won't stop China and them getting into bed with eachother, how insulting that Albo even dared to cheapen our long-standing relationship with our fuzzy-wuzzies by implying this pissy little offering is what was necessary to secure international relations between us and them in the first place.

Worst excuse ever!

The man is void of tact and class.