Horse racing system

[sprintcyclist]

............ Craig Williams and Hugh Bowman .............

Can you be a bit more ;flexible on the jockeys?

Maybe have a pool of 3 --> 5 of the top jockeys.
Study 'their' form. Do they have stages where they are going very well or going badly ?

Can you put a weighting on their last 'x' meetings, more value on the more recent rides.
Do some do better on Maiden races?
Factor in the horses they bring in at better odds.

[billy the kid]

Ive come to the conclusion that the theory is just regressing to the mean.
The mean being about 4 winners out of ten.
The average punter picks about three out of ten..I can only hope for four or more...
Ive seen this on many occasions over the years....
A punter has an idea and immediately the idea hits a losing stretch, he automatically starts
tinkering with it..attempting to change it for the better....human nature..bit like golfers
who have a great game, but when they hit a bad shot or two, suddenly they go to a swing
coach and he changes everything...

Ive considered the idea of including extra jockeys, but it becomes a problem when the other jockeys
are riding in the same race. This means I have to back them all, and this increases my risk.
If I chose one over the other there are too many ifs and buts...becomes a totally different theory.
Ive never been a fan of dutching either...once again the risk increases...
Racing commentators often say that a jockey is riding well atm...
All this means is the jockey has been fortunate enough to be granted rides on a series of good
horses all at about the same time...

Not really interested in betting on maidens..thats a short cut to the poor house...
Not that keen on backing horses at longer prices..
The longer the price the less often a horse will win at that price...
I could factor in horses at longer prices simply because Craig rode a longer priced winner yesterday, but
that means I have to back them all...and he only breaks even with horses at $4.40 to $8/$10

I could introduce a wide barrier rule, but looking back over his rides, he has ridden winners from wide
barriers. Wide barriers can be complicating as for example at Caulfield a wide barrier from the 1200m
1100m and 1000m starts doesnt necessarily mean the horse is "caught" wide as they have a straight run
all the way down the side to the home turn. They simply run in a straight line to the turn, but off the fence.
However incorporate a wide barrier there with a slow beginner..different story...drops back..runs nowhere...
Whereas a wide barrier from the 1400m at Caulfield and Flemington is disastrous..
At Caulfield, they run straight into a dip and a turn almost immediately after they jump.
If they are caught wide from the 1400m at Flemington, they are wide all the way round a sweeping turn
into the straight.
Wide barriers of course mean nothing down the straight at Flemington...horses drawn in high numbers
are shielded by the grandstand on windy days and often the going is better out there anyway as
Flemington has notorious track bias...
I could consider a wide barrier rule, incorporating the details of a speed map (looking at where
the horse settles after the jump) but then its all becoming a bit arbitrary...
Im stunned that his two rides yesterday on Shrouded In Mist and Into Rio started so short....
(wide gates and backmarkers)
Money for jam for the bookies from the punters....

Regarding Highland Beat..(won @ $6.50)...it had only won twice prior to yesterday in its last 23 starts back to 8.7.2017...and this was a weak field of seven... BM 78 at Geelong and another BM 78 at Sandown on 26.5.2018...
I didnt expect it to win..the race just happened to fall into place for it....

I might just leave things as they are for the moment...
I did consider backing Shinn or McEvoy or MacDonald in Sydney whilst Bowman was holidaying, but their
records since Bowman took leave are all pretty ordinary...

Many thanx for the interest....Ill keep putting up the qualifiers for a while for those keen on following...

[Black Orchid]

What about betting for a place instead of a win? Less winnings but better odds?

[billy the kid]

71 of my selections prior to yesterday had run a place... ie..1st 2nd or 3rd....(from 91 selections)
If they all paid say $1.50 for the place (which they didn't as a lot were very short for the win)
The result would be a return of 106.5 units for 91 out....
Equals a profit of 15.5 units on 91....about 17%...
An old punter from yesteryear... Pittsburg Phil has been quoted as saying "I pick them to win, but back them to place...
I think in America the place is only first and second...if you want to be paid for 3rd you have to bet
for "the show"...therefore I can only assume that he bet for 1st and 2nd....

https://www.americasbestracing.net/gamb ... sburg-phil

Clever, but conservative way of gambling ….
Thought about place betting a while back, but when I saw a few winners come in, and I was only on
for the place...human nature took over...then theres each way betting and betting 2 units for the win and
6 for the place etc...each to his own....
I think with the online bookies offering money back in various races if your win bet runs a place, tends
to send the message that maybe they want to end place punting..not enough margin in it for them...

My idea is to establish a bank of x dollars and then bet 3% of the bank on each bet...
Do the maths....incredible how it builds up in comparison to level staking...
Place betting at 3% is probably a damn good idea...
Punting/gambling really comes back to your personal profile..what are the odds..how much do you want to risk...and how..etc..
Do you punt for fun or are you serious...
I refuse to touch blackjack, poker machines, roulette, exotics..powerball..

Stay tuned...

[sprintcyclist]

Ive come to the conclusion that the theory is just regressing to the mean.
The mean being about 4 winners out of ten.
The average punter picks about three out of ten..I can only hope for four or more...
Ive seen this on many occasions over the years....
A punter has an idea and immediately the idea hits a losing stretch, he automatically starts
tinkering with it..attempting to change it for the better....human nature..bit like golfers
who have a great game, but when they hit a bad shot or two, suddenly they go to a swing
coach and he changes everything...

Ive considered the idea of including extra jockeys, but it becomes a problem when the other jockeys
are riding in the same race. This means I have to back them all, and this increases my risk.
If I chose one over the other there are too many ifs and buts...becomes a totally different theory.
Ive never been a fan of dutching either...once again the risk increases...
Racing commentators often say that a jockey is riding well atm...
All this means is the jockey has been fortunate enough to be granted rides on a series of good
horses all at about the same time...

Not really interested in betting on maidens..thats a short cut to the poor house...
Not that keen on backing horses at longer prices..
The longer the price the less often a horse will win at that price...
I could factor in horses at longer prices simply because Craig rode a longer priced winner yesterday, but
that means I have to back them all...and he only breaks even with horses at $4.40 to $8/$10

I could introduce a wide barrier rule, but looking back over his rides, he has ridden winners from wide
barriers. Wide barriers can be complicating as for example at Caulfield a wide barrier from the 1200m
1100m and 1000m starts doesnt necessarily mean the horse is "caught" wide as they have a straight run
all the way down the side to the home turn. They simply run in a straight line to the turn, but off the fence.
However incorporate a wide barrier there with a slow beginner..different story...drops back..runs nowhere...
Whereas a wide barrier from the 1400m at Caulfield and Flemington is disastrous..
At Caulfield, they run straight into a dip and a turn almost immediately after they jump.
If they are caught wide from the 1400m at Flemington, they are wide all the way round a sweeping turn
into the straight.
Wide barriers of course mean nothing down the straight at Flemington...horses drawn in high numbers
are shielded by the grandstand on windy days and often the going is better out there anyway as
Flemington has notorious track bias...
I could consider a wide barrier rule, incorporating the details of a speed map (looking at where
the horse settles after the jump) but then its all becoming a bit arbitrary...
Im stunned that his two rides yesterday on Shrouded In Mist and Into Rio started so short....
(wide gates and backmarkers)
Money for jam for the bookies from the punters....

Regarding Highland Beat..(won @ $6.50)...it had only won twice prior to yesterday in its last 23 starts back to 8.7.2017...and this was a weak field of seven... BM 78 at Geelong and another BM 78 at Sandown on 26.5.2018...
I didnt expect it to win..the race just happened to fall into place for it....

I might just leave things as they are for the moment...
I did consider backing Shinn or McEvoy or MacDonald in Sydney whilst Bowman was holidaying, but their
records since Bowman took leave are all pretty ordinary...

Many thanx for the interest....Ill keep putting up the qualifiers for a while for those keen on following...

' ..... I might just leave things as they are for the moment...'

good idea, looks like you have done your homework

[Black Orchid]

The system I had many years ago frowned on you for betting on a win. The 'pot' was slower going but steadily rose.

[billy the kid]

Each to his own.....how did the system work....ie...rules etc...

[Black Orchid]

I can't remember it was so long ago. It came on a floppy disk it was that long ago! From the little I recall you never bet on a wet track and you also only ever bet for a place. Maybe the rest will come to me the more I think about it.

I was doing pretty well actually and the number one rule was NEVER deviate from the system but, alas, after awhile I couldn't help myself lol.

[billy the kid]

Apparently Hugh Bowman will be returning to riding on Saturday, 6.7.2019...

Doing a bit of research atm which is very slow, but will include rides for Williams and Bowman
from now on where the horse qualifies as per normal, but also a qualifier if between $4.50
and $12 just before the jump and a last start winner.
I wont back fit the results but will monitor these additional qualifiers.
Seems a good time to start (today is 1.7.2019) and will separate the two groups of bets for those
interested....
Always had a soft spot for last start winners...Highland Beat on saturday and Search Squad recently (@ $12)
won which got me thinking....
Ill cut it off at $12 and see how it goes...

[billy the kid]

Craigs rides for tomorrow:

MR1 Hafaawa now $3.70..maiden..no bet
MR2 Fight now $2.25..only 3 starts..no bet
MR5 Kinky Boom now $2.40..a bet
MR6 Search Squad now $5..is a last start winner..goes into a separate group for observation...
MR7 Fergus Magergus..now $6..may ease due to shocking barrier...
MR8 Reliabelle..now $17..will probably stay at this price...

Kinky Boom won a saturday race early last year and was once considered a Blue Diamond hope..
Has done nothing since and drops to a midweek easier race..has been trialling well, hence the short price.
Weak BM 70 for weak horses...
Ill leave Search Squad out of the stats if it starts longer than $4.40 and put it in a separate group...