Horse racing system

[billy the kid]

Saturdays rides:
MR2 Shrouded In Mist..currently $4.80 may ease
MR3 Morrissey..$2.45 strong chance
MR4 Graceful Storm $13 too long in betting
MR5 Highland Beat $4 possibility if doesn't ease too much
MR6 Doroza $9.50 too long in betting
MR7 One More Try $4 possibility if doesn't ease too much
MR9 Into Rio $4 possibility if doesn't ease too much

MR1 King Of Hastings only has two starts....
MR8 Fragonard hasnt won in last seven starts....
Good luck to us....

[Bobby]

In 1985 I knew a professional gambler who did very well out of greyhound racing.

He only gave bets to bookies who had better odds than the TAB etc.
He would bet on up to 4 dogs in one race so - about half of the field in each race.
He used science to win -
he had records of every dog running in Australia -
their times and who they beat before etc.
It was all about collecting and processing huge amounts of information -
so much so that he had to employ a secretary to do much of the work.
He was making a lot of money but sometimes he would lose a lot too.
It's still gambling.

[billy the kid]

I could never get interested in the yap yaps...
The demolition derby on the first bend turned me off...As a young mug punter I was mad keen on the trots after
attending a few night meetings..the atmosphere, the gigs....racing under lights hooked me...fun times....
Each to his own...

[Black Orchid]

Win anything? I am keeping track lol.

[sprintcyclist]

Saturdays rides:
MR2 Shrouded In Mist..currently $4.80 may ease
MR3 Morrissey..$2.45 strong chance
MR4 Graceful Storm $13 too long in betting
MR5 Highland Beat $4 possibility if doesn't ease too much
MR6 Doroza $9.50 too long in betting
MR7 One More Try $4 possibility if doesn't ease too much
MR9 Into Rio $4 possibility if doesn't ease too much

MR1 King Of Hastings only has two starts....
MR8 Fragonard hasnt won in last seven starts....
Good luck to us....

right, MR is caulfield ............

R1 - won
R2 - no
R3 - no
R4 - no
R5 - Won
R6 - No
R7 - 2nd
R8 - 3rd

Good going

Am thinking should select fewer races per meeting

[sprintcyclist]

............. Back horses ridden by Craig Williams and Hugh Bowman at metropolitan race meetings.
Currently Williams is riding, but Bowman has taken a holiday until the end of July.
If they are riding interstate or a stand alone meeting, these meetings are included.
The rules are as follows:

Horse must be $4.40 or less fixed price with SportsBet just before the jump
Horse must have had five race starts
No maidens
No bet if horse is running against an odds on favourite
Horse must have won a race in its last seven starts ................

hhhmmmm

[billy the kid]

Todays results:
MR1 King Of Hastings..no bet as only two starts...1st @ $2.50..grrr....
MR2 Shrouded In Mist a bet but was unplaced @ $3.80
MR3 Morrissey....scratched..
MR4 Graceful Storm no bet @ $16
MR5 Highland Beat no bet (longer than $4.40) but 1st @ $6.50...grrrrr...again...
MR6 Doroza..scratched...some websites have Craig Williams on Green Ivy in this race..
but others had the rider as Michael Walker...no bet in any case as it was at $5.50...
MR7 One More Try a bet ran 2nd @ $2.35
MR8 Fragonard 3rd @ $6..no bet as hadnt won in last seven starts and longer than $4.40 anyway...
MR9 Into Rio a bet @ $3.60 and unplaced.

Overall 3 qualifiers for 3 losers...
I did the research some time ago on Craigs rides on horses starting between $4.40 and $10 and discovered
that even though as today he rode Highland Beat as a winner...overall his stats barely break even with
only one winner in six over about 30 rides in this category since December 1st...about the same with rides up to $8...
On all his rides he only rides about 14% winners which is about average for most hoops....

I didnt bet today as the weather was too wet and Craigs rides Into Rio and Shrouded In Mist drew very badly
out wide. These two horses are backmarkers and had no chance from out there in the wet.
I have no wide barrier deletion rule, but will give me something to do if I go back through the results
and follow it up....
I generally dont like doing this as its just window dressing..although its common sense that horses
that draw badly generally dont win...plus it cuts down on the bets...I hate backfitting a theory....
Stay tuned....

Gday sprint...just saw your posts...
Generally speaking the betting sorts it all out...sometimes we might only have one or two races
to consider...today he just happened to have a full book of rides, and with the scratchings due to the
wet track, it becomes along day waiting for horses to either firm or ease...
Ive noticed over the years that the horses that have let me down quite often don't have many race starts, hence the reason for the five starts minimum rule...sometimes they win a race early and look like champions...then fade...today King of Hastings did the opposite....
Most of my theories over the years have faired worse as the tracks get wet during winter...results arent up to scratch
as the quality of the races/horses reduces....hence the reliability of form goes a bit haywire...
Not making excuses but shit happens...
Cheers...

[billy the kid]

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=qu ... &FORM=VIRE

"I said place it on Lucky Dan....that horse is going to run 2nd"........The Sting...great movie.....

"Theres been a mistake....gimme my money back..."

[sprintcyclist]

What bet are you putting on ?

win or place?

[billy the kid]

Win