Betting on the election

[billy the kid]

Not sure if anyone is really that interested in betting on the election, but, in an attempt to keep everyone up to date on market moves I will supply daily moves. These market moves, in my opinion will relate to any gaffes either of the leaders are involved in.
As posted previously the opening odds were as follows:
Labor favourite at $1.10
Coalition outsiders at $4.75
Todays prices:
Labor $1.25
Coalition $3.85
I will post an update every time the market changes...
This obviously is not the bee all and end all....just a guide as to where the "smart money" is going.....
Make of it as you wish...

[billy the kid]

Forgot to mention...these odds are with Sportsbet...
Other bookmakers will have differing odds, depending on the amount of money they take for each party.
I will only update Sportsbet odds to be consistent.
Other bookmakers have the Coalition as short as $3.50 and the Labor party as long as $1.50

[Black Orchid]

Thanks for the info Billy.

[Nicole]

Billy you’ve made an early call that the libs will win. You’re a brave man, but you may be right. I think people are feeling very disenfranchised, and that brings with it ambivalence.

However, as the election draws nearer, pundits are starting to look at the realities of a labor government, and the fear starts to creep in. Suddenly they stop being ambivalent.

You may have backed a winner billy. You just may have. Can I asked how much you’ve bet, and what your odds are?

[Black Orchid]

Unless something radical happens between now and election day I sway towards the Libs winning too. Better of 2 evils.

Let's face it Shorten is a joke and could never even look half sane amongst other world leaders. We would be a laughing stock. If they had sense enough to pick someone better than Shorten it would be a totally different story.

Like in NSW they had Foley followed by Daley who were both duds and both got kicked.

I don't like Morrison much but he certainly has more finesse in front of a crowd and a camera than booby Billy could ever have.

If the Libs were smart enough to preferences with One Nation, Labor would not have a hope.

[billy the kid]

Billy you’ve made an early call that the libs will win. You’re a brave man, but you may be right. I think people are feeling very disenfranchised, and that brings with it ambivalence.

However, as the election draws nearer, pundits are starting to look at the realities of a labor government, and the fear starts to creep in. Suddenly they stop being ambivalent.

You may have backed a winner billy. You just may have. Can I asked how much you’ve bet, and what your odds are?

Sorry I dont tell everyone how much I had on this or how much I had on that...that makes me sound like a braggart....but I will say that I got $4.75 when I laid the bet...
I may have gone off half cocked...only time will tell....
I will say there are two types of punters...a) mug punters and b) the rest of us...
I was once a mug punter..when I was in my 20s and 30s....
When I started learning about risk versus probability I began to understand a bit about gambling...long story.....

[Nicole]

For billy:

[youtube]http://youtu.be/7hx4gdlfamo[/youtube]

Can’t get it right sprint

[billy the kid]

Unless something radical happens between now and election day I sway towards the Libs winning too. Better of 2 evils.

Let's face it Shorten is a joke and could never even look half sane amongst other world leaders. We would be a laughing stock. If they had sense enough to pick someone better than Shorten it would be a totally different story.

Like in NSW they had Foley followed by Daley who were both duds and both got kicked.

I don't like Morrison much but he certainly has more finesse in front of a crowd and a camera than booby Billy could ever have.

If the Libs were smart enough to preferences with One Nation, Labor would not have a hope.

I thought in the past that if Julie Bishop had won the spill and become PM the coalition would have romped in. Dont mistake that as praise or admiration...just stating a possibility...
I think Shorten was a bad choice as leader and I think his deputy should have the gig...Tanya Plebersite...once again not praise or admiration..just stating a possibility...
Now that would have been an interesting election....
I agree that Shorten comes across as a moron...the manner in which he attempts to answer questions suggests
to me that he'd have difficulty holding a stop/go sign...the man just comes across as someone struggling to get two
understandable sentences together...he was asked today about costing for his proposed pay rises for the workers....
..he didnt have a clue...almost as though he just makes it up as he goes...as least Morrison has the ability to bullshit his
way through questions....neither of them impress me as a leader....

[Wally Raffles]

It is no surprise to see Labor sitting pretty. The Libs have failed, and that began when they chose to take out daggers like Labor did. You would think that intelligent people would learn from the Rudd Gillard Rudd years, but it seem ambition and ego always triumph.

[Nicole]

It is no surprise to see Labor sitting pretty. The Libs have failed, and that began when they chose to take out daggers like Labor did. You would think that intelligent people would learn from the Rudd Gillard Rudd years, but it seem ambition and ego always triumph.

Agreed Wally. The back stabbing is a huge turn off.