Is China Chucking a Wobbly?

[Neferti]

You forget the fact that Australia is of prime importance to the US in this region and the US would never let that happen. Never!

The problem is that our stupid politicians ARE trying to give Australia away to the Chinese hand over fist to line their own pockets and if the worst ever were to happen we would be screaming for the yanks to come and save us ... which they would.

If we ever were in danger the US would just take Port Darwin from the Chinese.

The main danger/threat to Australia and Australians are our ignorant, self aggrandising, pocket filling, pig troughing politicians and THEY are the ones we need to sort out.

DO NOT VOTE FOR THE MAJOR PARTIES unless they stand on policies to halt immigration and to stop selling out Australia to Asia!!

No choice where I am. Labor stronghold. Best I can do is NOT vote at all. I imagine that Cods will agree.

[brian ross]

Australia demographics:

Age structure: This entry provides the distribution of the population according to age. Information is included by sex and age group as follows: 0-14 years (children), 15-24 years (early working age), 25-54 years (prime working age), 55-64 years (mature working age), 65 years and over (elderly). The age structure of a population affects a nation's key socioeconomic issues. Countries with young populations (high percentage under age 15) need to invest more in schools, while countries with older population . . . more Age structure field listing

0-14 years: 17.75% (male 2,138,080 /female 2,027,583)
15-24 years: 12.62% (male 1,520,528 /female 1,442,461)
25-54 years: 41.35% (male 4,944,587 /female 4,760,752)
55-64 years: 11.84% (male 1,379,681 /female 1,398,177)
65 years and over: 16.44% (male 1,786,595 /female 2,071,701) (2018 est.)

[...]

Military and Security :: Australia
Panel - Expanded
Military expenditures: This entry gives spending on defense programs for the most recent year available as a percent of gross domestic product (GDP); the GDP is calculated on an exchange rate basis, i.e., not in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). For countries with no military forces, this figure can include expenditures on public security and police. Military expenditures field listing
2% of GDP (2016)
1.98% of GDP (2015)
1.8% of GDP (2014)
country comparison to the world: 50
Military branches: This entry lists the service branches subordinate to defense ministries or the equivalent (typically ground, naval, air, and marine forces). Military branches field listing
Australian Defense Force (ADF): Australian Army (includes Special Operations Command), Royal Australian Navy (includes Naval Aviation Force), Royal Australian Air Force, Joint Operations Command (JOC) (2016)
Military service age and obligation: This entry gives the required ages for voluntary or conscript military service and the length of service obligation. Military service age and obligation field listing
17 years of age for voluntary military service (with parental consent); no conscription; women allowed to serve in most combat roles (2018)

[Source]

The Peoples' Republic of China is approximately 7,470 km from Australia (centre of each country). Roughly about 5,500 km, coast to coast. There are three or more intervening countries between Australia and the PRC - Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.

If the PRC was to attack Australia, it would need to traverse that distance, most of which is ocean and either come to agreement with or overcome those nations before reaching Australia's "Top End". If they chose to attack the "Top End", they would then be faced with ~2,000 km to the SE Corner of the continent which is where the majority of the Australian population and it's industries reside. If instead, they chose to sail/fly another ~3,000 km they could then attack the major population and industrial centres directly. In either case, they would be subject to significant interdiction and attack from the Australian Defence Forces.

At the present moment, the PLA needs to be able to transport and sustain about 3-4 divisions of troops to attack and conquer Australia. It lacks the significant means to do that and it would take at least 10-15 years to build and train up that capability. They would also need significant naval and long range air assets to protect that force as it sails southwards. They would need significant ASW and AA capabilities. They would also need significant naval and air replenishment forces to sustain such an effort.

I do not think we have much to fear from the PRC militarily.

[brian ross]

You forget the fact that Australia is of prime importance to the US in this region and the US would never let that happen. Never!

Be nice to think that but in the world of politics, there are no guarantees, Black Orchid. It would nice to think that American sentiment would be to leap to our defence but there is nothing in writing which could be used to force the US to honour any supposed commitment to defence Australia. A**US is a piece of paper that contains no guarantees. It only has a section where the parties "agree to consult", nothing more. Canberra has made the A**US Treaty up into something it never was - a guarantee of Australia's defence. The US has declined our requests in the past - 1961, 1965, 1975 and 1999 for aid. Who will say what they would do in the future?

Australia is a "suitable piece of real estate" as Des Ball put it, back in 1971, nothing more it seems to the Americans. We are a nice place to put satellite listening posts, a nice place to send some US Marines to get them out of the DPRK's missile range and out of the sight of the PRC. We occasionally get a fleet visit and that is about it. Our Government answers their calls for military help appropriately quickly. A**US runs all the way towards Washington. It's only real benefit to Australia is that we receive cheaper prices on US military equipment which we purchase from them.

Is our foreign policy and defence policies worth those 30 pieces of silver? I often wonder. There is an old US Political maxim: "not what have you done for me but what have you done for me lately..." Perhaps it's time we were a little bit slower picking up the phone the next time el Presidente' calls.

[Neferti]

Australia demographics:

Age structure: This entry provides the distribution of the population according to age. Information is included by sex and age group as follows: 0-14 years (children), 15-24 years (early working age), 25-54 years (prime working age), 55-64 years (mature working age), 65 years and over (elderly). The age structure of a population affects a nation's key socioeconomic issues. Countries with young populations (high percentage under age 15) need to invest more in schools, while countries with older population . . . more Age structure field listing

0-14 years: 17.75% (male 2,138,080 /female 2,027,583)
15-24 years: 12.62% (male 1,520,528 /female 1,442,461)
25-54 years: 41.35% (male 4,944,587 /female 4,760,752)
55-64 years: 11.84% (male 1,379,681 /female 1,398,177)
65 years and over: 16.44% (male 1,786,595 /female 2,071,701) (2018 est.)

[...]

Military and Security :: Australia
Panel - Expanded
Military expenditures: This entry gives spending on defense programs for the most recent year available as a percent of gross domestic product (GDP); the GDP is calculated on an exchange rate basis, i.e., not in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). For countries with no military forces, this figure can include expenditures on public security and police. Military expenditures field listing
2% of GDP (2016)
1.98% of GDP (2015)
1.8% of GDP (2014)
country comparison to the world: 50
Military branches: This entry lists the service branches subordinate to defense ministries or the equivalent (typically ground, naval, air, and marine forces). Military branches field listing
Australian Defense Force (ADF): Australian Army (includes Special Operations Command), Royal Australian Navy (includes Naval Aviation Force), Royal Australian Air Force, Joint Operations Command (JOC) (2016)
Military service age and obligation: This entry gives the required ages for voluntary or conscript military service and the length of service obligation. Military service age and obligation field listing
17 years of age for voluntary military service (with parental consent); no conscription; women allowed to serve in most combat roles (2018)

[Source]

The Peoples' Republic of China is approximately 7,470 km from Australia (centre of each country). Roughly about 5,500 km, coast to coast. There are three or more intervening countries between Australia and the PRC - Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.

If the PRC was to attack Australia, it would need to traverse that distance, most of which is ocean and either come to agreement with or overcome those nations before reaching Australia's "Top End". If they chose to attack the "Top End", they would then be faced with ~2,000 km to the SE Corner of the continent which is where the majority of the Australian population and it's industries reside. If instead, they chose to sail/fly another ~3,000 km they could then attack the major population and industrial centres directly. In either case, they would be subject to significant interdiction and attack from the Australian Defence Forces.

At the present moment, the PLA needs to be able to transport and sustain about 3-4 divisions of troops to attack and conquer Australia. It lacks the significant means to do that and it would take at least 10-15 years to build and train up that capability. They would also need significant naval and long range air assets to protect that force as it sails southwards. They would need significant ASW and AA capabilities. They would also need significant naval and air replenishment forces to sustain such an effort.

I do not think we have much to fear from the PRC militarily.

Gosh you talk a lot of rubbish.

[brian ross]

Australia demographics:

Age structure: This entry provides the distribution of the population according to age. Information is included by sex and age group as follows: 0-14 years (children), 15-24 years (early working age), 25-54 years (prime working age), 55-64 years (mature working age), 65 years and over (elderly). The age structure of a population affects a nation's key socioeconomic issues. Countries with young populations (high percentage under age 15) need to invest more in schools, while countries with older population . . . more Age structure field listing

0-14 years: 17.75% (male 2,138,080 /female 2,027,583)
15-24 years: 12.62% (male 1,520,528 /female 1,442,461)
25-54 years: 41.35% (male 4,944,587 /female 4,760,752)
55-64 years: 11.84% (male 1,379,681 /female 1,398,177)
65 years and over: 16.44% (male 1,786,595 /female 2,071,701) (2018 est.)

[...]

Military and Security :: Australia
Panel - Expanded
Military expenditures: This entry gives spending on defense programs for the most recent year available as a percent of gross domestic product (GDP); the GDP is calculated on an exchange rate basis, i.e., not in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). For countries with no military forces, this figure can include expenditures on public security and police. Military expenditures field listing
2% of GDP (2016)
1.98% of GDP (2015)
1.8% of GDP (2014)
country comparison to the world: 50
Military branches: This entry lists the service branches subordinate to defense ministries or the equivalent (typically ground, naval, air, and marine forces). Military branches field listing
Australian Defense Force (ADF): Australian Army (includes Special Operations Command), Royal Australian Navy (includes Naval Aviation Force), Royal Australian Air Force, Joint Operations Command (JOC) (2016)
Military service age and obligation: This entry gives the required ages for voluntary or conscript military service and the length of service obligation. Military service age and obligation field listing
17 years of age for voluntary military service (with parental consent); no conscription; women allowed to serve in most combat roles (2018)

[Source]

The Peoples' Republic of China is approximately 7,470 km from Australia (centre of each country). Roughly about 5,500 km, coast to coast. There are three or more intervening countries between Australia and the PRC - Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.

If the PRC was to attack Australia, it would need to traverse that distance, most of which is ocean and either come to agreement with or overcome those nations before reaching Australia's "Top End". If they chose to attack the "Top End", they would then be faced with ~2,000 km to the SE Corner of the continent which is where the majority of the Australian population and it's industries reside. If instead, they chose to sail/fly another ~3,000 km they could then attack the major population and industrial centres directly. In either case, they would be subject to significant interdiction and attack from the Australian Defence Forces.

At the present moment, the PLA needs to be able to transport and sustain about 3-4 divisions of troops to attack and conquer Australia. It lacks the significant means to do that and it would take at least 10-15 years to build and train up that capability. They would also need significant naval and long range air assets to protect that force as it sails southwards. They would need significant ASW and AA capabilities. They would also need significant naval and air replenishment forces to sustain such an effort.

I do not think we have much to fear from the PRC militarily.

Gosh you talk a lot of rubbish.

Ah, so I know understanding reality is difficult for some people, hey, Neferti?

[Neferti]

NOBODY cares what you say ........

[Valkie]

OK Lets see now;

we have around 25 million people in Australia

Around 15 million are children, too old to fight, disabled or criminal.

That leaves around 10 million.

Of those, around half are women a good percentage of who will not or cannot fight, say 4 million.

That leaves around 6 million able bodied persons who may be capable of fighting.

Now around 1/4 of those are in protected industries, in other words industries that need to make the weapons and such.

Down to around 4.5 million potentially able bodied persons.

Then you have the greenies, muzzos, and LGBTIQRAGGMOP persons who "wont fight because they are cowards"

Say 500,000 just to be fair.

down to 4 million.

Now we can probably find weapons for around 1 or 2 million if we try really really hard, mostly WW2 left overs.

We have around 80,000 full time soldiers who can instruct and teach the 2 million to do what they need to do.
But there will only be a certain number who can actually use a weapon and not kill themselves or their mates.

So.....best case scenario
we could muster around 2 possibly 2.5 million untrained people, armed with outdated weapons.
We have at best 45 days of fuel but could possibly take any vehicles needed off the public.
But without fuel, they would be stranded.
We have perhaps ammunition for around half of the combatants and with no real means to make more in a hurry would run out very quickly.

China could, at this moment, put 10 times that number of trained soldiers on our doorstep in a few days, say a week at most
They have the weapons, the ammunition, the people and the ability to take over Australia in less than a month.
By the time we realized it was an invasion, it would all be over.
Our pollies would still be arguing about pink uniforms and gender neutral field toilets.

The USA would not step in other than to huff and puff because China has NUKES and are mad enough to use them.

If China wants Australia, they could take it easy.
But why bother?
Australian politicians are virtually giving it away.
Australians are deliberately weakening our people with gender politics and PC stupidity
We even have enemies within that we cannot sort out.

The Chinese are laughing at us, and simply waiting to walk in and say, "Nee Ho, You are now part of China"

You forget the fact that Australia is of prime importance to the US in this region and the US would never let that happen. Never!

The problem is that our stupid politicians ARE trying to give Australia away to the Chinese hand over fist to line their own pockets and if the worst ever were to happen we would be screaming for the yanks to come and save us ... which they would.

If we ever were in danger the US would just take Port Darwin from the Chinese.

The main danger/threat to Australia and Australians are our ignorant, self aggrandising, pocket filling, pig troughing politicians and THEY are the ones we need to sort out.

DO NOT VOTE FOR THE MAJOR PARTIES unless they stand on policies to halt immigration and to stop selling out Australia to Asia!!

I think if it came to a standoff nukes vs nukes, the yanks would back down.

Sure strategically Pine Gap is important, but how long would it last if China decided to blind it?

Nup we are ripe for the picking, thanks to the dead beat morons running this country.

On that we can agree,

[Black Orchid]

There is a lot more than Pine Gap that is important to the US in Australia .

I think the main question would be if Australia could remain independent if the US went to war in the South Pacific.

[brian ross]

NOBODY cares what you say ........

Oh, dearie, dearie, me. Really? Yet you care enough to read what I say. Tut, tut, not to worry, Neferti.

[brian ross]

There is a lot more than Pine Gap that is important to the US in Australia .

Such as? Please explain, as some woman once asked...

I think the main question would be if Australia could remain independent if the US went to war in the South Pacific.

Doubtful. We are IMHO too firmly wedded into the US strategic environment. Our Government unfortunately has long lost sight that our concerns do not necessarily mirror US concerns all the time.