South Australia Election

[Rorschach]

Soon we will have the next state election, the SA election. Will Nick Xenophon win the day?
Will the South Australians re-elect the ALP yet again...?
12 of the last 16 governments have been ALP.

[Rorschach]

Xenophon’s SA-BEST slumps in a South Australian Newspoll, while Turnbull’s better PM lead narrows
March 6, 2018 9.09am AEDT
Adrian Beaumont

The South Australian election will be held on March 17. A Newspoll, conducted in the three days from February 27 to March 1 from a sample of 1,078, gave the Liberals 32% of the primary vote (up three since the October to December Newspoll), Labor 30% (up three), SA-BEST 21% (down 11), the Greens 7% (up one) and the Australian Conservatives 6%. No two-party figure was calculated.

About half of SA-BEST’s drop is because it is contesting 36 of the 47 lower house seats, and Newspoll did not offer SA-BEST as an option in the seats they are not contesting. In the seats SA-BEST is contesting, it averaged 27%.

On the three-way better premier question, 29% supported Nick Xenophon (down 17), 28% incumbent Jay Weatherill (up six) and 24% Opposition Leader Steven Marshall (up five). Weatherill led Marshall 38-31 head-to-head (37-32 previously).

Although SA-BEST and Xenophon’s support has slumped, neither of the two major party leaders is at all popular. Weatherill’s net approval is -21, down two points, and Marshall’s net approval is -26, down three points.

The Liberals led Labor 42-38 on best party for the South Australian economy, and led Labor 37-36 on best to maintain the energy supply and keep power prices lower. SA-BEST voters favoured the Liberals 37-33 on the economy and Labor 35-27 on energy.

Although SA-BEST is averaging 27% in seats it is contesting, the major parties are less vulnerable to losing seats to SA-BEST than it may appear from primary votes. Most Greens will preference Labor higher than SA-BEST, and most Conservatives will preference the Liberals higher.

Labor’s biggest problem in South Australia is that it has been in government since 2002. Old governments cannot blame problems on their predecessors, and there is an “It’s Time” factor.

14 to 16 year-old Labor governments in Queensland, New South Wales and Tasmania were smashed between 2011 and 2014, so Labor in South Australia is doing well to be competitive. Picking fights with the unpopular federal Coalition government probably explains Labor’s competitiveness.

Only once in the four elections since 2002 South Australian Labor won has the party received a majority of the two party vote (in 2006). At the 2014 election, despite losing the two party vote 53.0-47.0, Labor won 23 of the 47 seats, and formed government with an independent’s support.

Unlike other Australian electoral commissions, the South Australian commission is required to create electorally fair boundaries. The 2018 boundaries were drawn so that, based on the last election’s results, a party that won a majority of the two party vote should win a majority of the seats, ignoring independents.

The result of this requirement is that boundaries have been changed to favour the Liberals. According to the ABC’s Antony Green, the new boundaries notionally give the Liberals 27 seats out of 47, to Labor’s 20. Including independents, the Liberals have 24 seats, Labor has 19 and independents four. Ignoring independents, Labor needs a 3.1 point uniform swing to gain four seats from the Liberals and a majority.

The South Australian upper house has 22 members, with half up for election every four years. Statewide proportional representation is used to elect the upper house, with a similar system to the Senate. The South Australian parliament abolished group voting tickets last year.

The new system has optional preferential voting above the line; a single “1” vote above the line will expire within the chosen party, and will not be passed on as preferences to another party. Voters can direct preferences to other parties by marking “2”, “3”, and so on, above the line.

With 11 members to be elected, a quota is one-twelfth of the vote, or 8.3%. Overall, the upper house has eight Liberals, eight Labor, two Greens, two Conservatives, one Dignity and one Advance SA (formerly SA-BEST). At this election, the members up for election are four Liberals, four Labor, one Green, one Conservative and one Dignity.

[Neferti]

Soon we will have the next state election, the SA election. Will Nick Xenophon win the day?
Will the South Australians re-elect the ALP yet again...?
12 of the last 16 governments have been ALP.

I think the South Australian voters are almost as stupid as the ACT voters ...the ALP (with help from the Greens) have been in power in the ACT most of the time since self government in 1988. One Liberal Government, Kate Carnell as Chief Minister from 1995-2000. That's it! Canberra is an ALP "stronghold".

It is Time SA (and the ACT) had a change!

Go Steven Marshall!

[LEFTWINGER supreme]

Libtards will win only because the mighty labor party have been in for 16 years and they probably want to have a giggle to see what an utterly shit government can do before they boot them out after one term like they did in VIC and QLD

[Rorschach]

Conceding already CFMEU?

That's not like you, where's the bragging and ridicule and OTT claims?

Wassup didn't like my flowers last time?

[Black Orchid]

No idea about SA. Not a clue! But I think Gladys will get a run for her money in NSW next election.

[cods]

Libtards will win only because the mighty labor party have been in for 16 years and they probably want to have a giggle to see what an utterly shit government can do before they boot them out after one term like they did in VIC and QLD

looking at the mess and corruption labor left the liberals in NSW to clean up....you shouldnt be such a loud mouth....

its taken 16 years and still the state doesnt have its own POWER..and blackouts are the norm...

gee wizz how many labor MPs does it take to change a light bulb?

[LEFTWINGER supreme]

Cleaned up corruption ICAC took 16 libtards down

[Neferti]

Cleaned up corruption ICAC took 16 libtards down

South Australia has nothing to recommend it. I don't care if the citizens vote Labor, again. They get what they deserve. Christopher Pyne. He is one weird looking bloke.

[cods]

Cleaned up corruption ICAC took 16 libtards down

for how many millions leftard how many millions oh and btw how many in JAIL????

a bottle of wine.. seriously....

and you compare that to Obeid and his mates..