Bill Shorten

[Rorschach]

Shorten shown up as an opportunist too smart by half
The Australian
12:00AM March 3, 2018
Paul Kelly

The Adani project has become a turning point in the contest over political, cultural and financial power in Australia. It is an iconic test of strength between the growing progressive/green lobby and the Turnbull government-backed pro-development forces with long-run consequences.

“This is the biggest environmental campaign ever run in this country and one of the biggest campaigns in the world,” former Australian Conservation Foundation director Geoffrey Cousins told The Australian. “It has got international attention from The New York Times to The Financial Times.

“It is a landmark event. The campaign is about climate change, global warming and protecting the Great Barrier Reef. Adani would be the biggest coalmine in this country. In my view the project is dead in the water, but you don’t stop until it sinks. Nobody is going to fund this mine. Financial institutions watch their reputation and if you damage your reputation then your shareholder value drops.”

The Labor Party, though beset by internal divisions, is essentially working to undermine Adani with its mantra that the project “doesn’t stand up financially” — a blatant appeal to no confidence that prejudges a commercial result about an approved project.

Political opponents are playing with fire. This issue has consequences for the viability of regulatory approvals, foreign investment, the coal industry and regional Queensland’s economic outlook.

The proof of the near triumph of anti-Adani sentiment is the convoluted, expedient yet unmistakeable shift of Bill Shorten. Once pro-Adani, the Opposition Leader has been galvanised by the Batman by-election and public mood to tilt his position against the project while still paying lip service to pro-coal opinion in regional Queensland.

Shorten’s character as an opportunist has rarely been so embarrassingly exposed. On display is his compulsion to offer conflicting messages to different constituencies for electoral gain, the antithesis of any politics of principle.

In the process, Shorten got caught out from his trip and dialogue with a calculating Cousins, whose ruthless skill as an environmental advocate is legend. The two principals have different versions but, according to Cousins, Shorten not only sought advice but signalled his willingness to change Labor policy — instead of letting Adani die from lack of funds, Shorten lurched towards a policy that he would revoke its licence as prime minister.

This would have been filled with traps — Shorten would have been cast as killing agent for a project that he feels cannot survive anyway. Whether Shorten reassessed or was persuaded by colleagues, by week’s end the flirtation with Cousins was in a polite retreat of sorts.

Cousins explained what happened from his dialogue with Shorten: “I believe he wanted to have a firmer policy on Adani but in some way he was held back by his colleagues. He had given me a precise timeline about the announcement of his stance. He told me he wouldn’t do it in his National Press Club address at the start of the year but that I shouldn’t be concerned about that. He said he would do it in Queensland and would make the announcement in Queensland the following week.

“He subsequently rang me to explain that he would need more time. I think he was having difficulty with his colleagues. I said OK. I mean, that’s his job. But I felt it was best to keep the pressure on. My experience is that keeping the pressure on is the only course that ever delivers anything.”

In late January, Cousins had hosted Shorten on a $17,000 tour of the reef and a flight over the Adani mine site. “Shorten could see precisely where he was snorkelling and what had happened to the reef,” Cousins said. “We flew over the mine site and there’s nothing there, just a couple of buildings, it’s a lot of nonsense.”

Given the delay, Cousins ­decided to turn up the heat. He dropped his bombshell on the ABC’s 7.30 with Leigh Sales on Tuesday night. Cousins said Shorten assured him “when we are in government, if the evidence is as compelling as it appears now, we will revoke the licence in accordance with the law”.

This is what Cousins wanted to hear: a different and tougher Labor stand that he hoped might settle the issue. Cousins said there was no mistake — the statement was delivered precisely this way at least a half-dozen times. Shorten believes this version is highly exaggerated: he wanted assistance and advice from Cousins; he has no time for the mine; he believes it will fall over; he wanted to explore options but he will not create sovereign risks or break contracts.

According to Cousins, Shorten said he would take the issue to the shadow cabinet. Cousins also gave Shorten legal opinions ­obtained by the ACF to the effect that under the law, revocation can occur if an issue is revealed that was not identified when ­approval was ­initially given that would otherwise have resulted in that ­approval being denied. Given this law, Cousins said, “in this situation the risk sits with the company — it is not a sovereign risk”.

Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg repudiates any claim the grounds exist for revocation. Frydenberg told Sky News this week his advice was that no such new information was available.

“Here’s the critical point,” Frydenberg said. “That ­information is not at hand. So there is now not a case for the revocation under section 145. Shorten knows that but because of the Batman by-election he’s trying to be all things to all people.”

Frydenberg’s advice exposes the high risk Shorten would run if he pledged revocation or to explore revocation in office. This would constitute a short-term fix but a major folly. A number of senior Labor figures warn of the serious political risks in this position. It would be a gift to the Turnbull government with the potential to swing sentiment against the anti-Adani camp.

Despite Cousins’s argument, it would raise certain issues of sovereign risk. The government would mount this argument. It would ­assert Shorten was prepared to pose a sovereign investment risk in the cause of winning green votes in the inner city.

The politically smart position for Labor is obvious — let the project expire because of lack of funding but avoid any pledge from opposition or act in office that sees Labor assume accountability for revocation. This would open a Pandora’s box — if Labor moved to kill the Carmichael mine then what other coal proposals or ventures would be safe and what would be the investment consequences?

As a governing party presiding over a substantial coal industry by world standards, Labor must build product discrimination from the Greens based on a coherent policy framework.

The Shorten-Cousins rapport has not been widely known within the Labor Party and is now an issue raising questions about Shorten’s judgment. The Carmichael mine has been through a protracted series of environmental law provisions and is approved subject to 36 strict conditions.

Under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999, there are precisely defined circumstances that govern suspension or revocation of federal environmental approval. Opposition environment spokesman Tony Burke told the ABC’s Patricia Karvelas this week that under the law, as minister, “you must never prejudge a decision”. If so, you risk legal action from the aggrieved company. No prizes for guessing where Burke is coming from.

As Frydenberg said: “The Carmichael mine has gone through the process. It has been challenged in the courts multiple times and has been upheld. It is a mine that is in the Galilee Basin, it’s 300km inland in a dry and dusty part of Queensland, and it has ­received strong support from local mayors, from the unions and local communities.”

In short, revocation of the Carmichael mine on environmental grounds is a daunting task loaded with traps. Comparisons with the Franklin dam under the Hawke government are nonsense. That predated the EPBC Act and the politics since are transformed — because of the EPBC Act, no political party can make a firm commitment to use environmental law to stop a project.

This was the message opposition infrastructure spokesman Anthony Albanese sent repeatedly this week to anyone with ears.

“The Adani coalmine has been approved,” Albanese said. “It has been approved under state and federal approvals. The question is what can Labor do? What Labor can do is … make sure that there is no subsidy of the rail line or other infrastructure for what is a private project. If that doesn’t occur, and the company has said it themselves, the project will fall over and be unable to get finance. At the moment, it just doesn’t have ­finance. They have tried to get it everywhere and it just doesn’t stack up.”

Shorten said of the project yesterday: “I make no secret that I don’t like it very much. I don’t think the project is going to ­materialise. The Adani mining company seem to have missed plenty of deadlines. It doesn’t seem to stack up financially, commercially or indeed environmentally.” But Shorten ruled out any breaking of contracts and that also meant any action as prime minister to revoke the licence.

Understand what is happening — federal Labor wants to destroy this project but keep its hands clean from any financial or political backlash.

It knows “Adani” is a dirty word from the focus groups. Indeed, Frydenberg knows as well and is careful now only to use the term “Carmichael”.

Labor’s hostility must become a material factor in the final ­assessments made by the company. With polls pointing to a change of government, Labor’s campaign makes successful ­financing a more remote possibility. Shorten’s tougher position only intensifies the stakes ­involved in the Batman by-election. How will Shorten look if Labor loses despite his intensification of the campaign against the Adani mine, his trip to the region, his dialogue with Cousins and the belief by the former ACF director that Shorten was ready to play the revocation card?

The green lobby is desperate to defeat the mine on environmental and climate change grounds. While these grounds have sway with public opinion, they are the weakest instruments to secure Carmichael’s defeat — the real pressure points are lack of finance and political “no confidence” from the alternative government despite Adani’s success in meeting the formal approvals.

The mine is a long way from the Great Barrier Reef. Yet arguments about its alleged proximity to the reef are irrelevant in climate change terms since to the extent emissions are corroding the reef that is a universal, not a local, phenomenon.

Resources Minister Matt Canavan attacked Labor’s hypocrisy, saying many of the delays have sprung directly from politics. “This mine is the cornerstone to unlocking the Galilee Basin,” Canavan told The Australian. “There is a window of opportunity at present in the world coal markets with the price high and ­renewed confidence. But the risk for Australia is that we will miss this window and this opportunity essentially because of political ­factors.”

Canavan said the decision by the Queensland Labor government last year to veto any potential loan from the $5 billion Northern Australian Infrastructure Facility for the rail line to the port had a “huge impact” on the overall venture. The company wanted the funds and wanted governments “to have skin in the game”.

“This wasn’t just a backflip,” he said. “The Queensland government gave Adani repeated assurances they would support federal government loans to the rail line.” This was now a lost ­option courtesy of a political ­decision.

Queensland Labor’s decision has been reinforced by Shorten’s tougher stance and the recent warning by opposition energy spokesman Mark Butler that Carmichael was not in the national ­interest and that proposed new mines in the Galilee Basin were also not financially viable.

Canavan concedes that Adani’s “financial options are limited”. He warns that “future investors will look at the way Adani has been treated and have to ­reconsider investment in Australia”. He fears that the opportunity presented by higher coal prices will be missed and is frustrated at the extent of opposition to Carmichael from other coal companies operating in Australia.

The objective of the Greens is to use Carmichael as the instrument to terminate any new coalmines in Australia. Victory will strengthen their hands for the next battle and solidify the hostility of local financial institutions to finance coal projects.

Meanwhile, there seems no end to Shorten’s dissembling — he ­declared yesterday that “we are a resource nation, we are a mining nation”, while he passes judgment as a politician on the finances of Adani in an ­effort to ensure its funding cannot materialise.

Cousins, who has lobbied the Indians and the Chinese against the project, said: “They have no money. They were briefing journalists they could get money from China but the Chinese banks have come out rejecting this. The financial community in Australia accepts climate change science ­totally. Adani’s business case just doesn’t stack up.”

If Cousins’s predictions are ­realised, the killing of Adani after it passed all state and federal ­approvals will bring progressive and green momentum to a zenith. On display will be its moral power, its ability to smash through government and court approvals, its capture of the financial sector and its delivery of a decisive blow to the once-strong pro-development, pro-coal ethos.

Can you imagine the scale of political conflict that will erupt in this country if Adani defies such hostility and somehow manages to proceed with finance?

It is also an insight into our ­morality as a nation — the moral case that Carmichael will help many thousands of poor people in India gets almost no traction; ­indeed, it is mocked by progressive politicians who insist there is an alternative over-arching ­morality — stopping the coal ­industry in the cause of saving the planet from global warming.

[Rorschach]

Problems aplenty for unpopular Shorten ahead of a challenging year
The Australian
12:00AM March 6, 2018

Bill Shorten is facing his most challenging year as Labor leader, even though polls have the opposition with what appears an insurmountable lead and he looks almost certain to be prime minister next year.

Shorten must contend with internal party wrangling over policy ahead of a national conference, a divisive contest for party presidency, the possible loss of the seat of Batman, a factional struggle for power in Victoria and increasing union militancy while leadership aspirant Anthony Albanese breathes down his neck.

None of this is helped by Shorten’s unpopularity. Labor’s focus group research has always showed that most voters don’t like him and don’t trust him. Party officials believe Shorten is a drag on the Labor vote, which is stuck at historically low levels of about 37-38 per cent. Statewide polling recently conducted by the party’s national secretariat largely mirrors Newspoll and shows Labor is on track to win the election. But when government-held marginal seats have been polled, including by state branches, the results are much closer than national polls suggest.

No wonder there is apprehension in Labor ranks. Nobody is talking about a leadership coup but a growing number of Shorten’s colleagues is concerned about strategy and policy direction. Over summer, aware of these concerns, Shorten phoned around to offer reassurance. “Look, we’ve been here before,” a Labor frontbencher told me recently. “We’ve been ahead in the polls, under (Kim) Beazley and (Mark) Latham, but we haven’t won on election day. There is nervousness in the show that we might not get there.”

“The problem with Bill is that it is hard to know what he believes in,” says another frontbencher. “What’s his vision, philosophy, purpose? He’s a trans­ac­tional leader. He’s talking too much to the base. And he talks in grabs. What is there to excite the voters?”

The coming year will test Shorten’s leadership mettle. The most important challenge will be July’s Adelaide national conference. A rule change to allow state and territory branches to elect 150 rank-and-file delegates could see the left emerge with a majority of delegates for the first time since the late 1970s.

National left faction leaders met 10 days ago. They want a major shift in policy: introducing new taxes on high-income earners and investors, ending offshore processing of refugees and boat turnbacks, recognition of Pales­tine and boosting party democracy. The national right leadership last Thursday vowed to fight many of these policies and is especially worried about the party’s economic credibility.

Mark Butler has confirmed he will run for another term as party president and is likely to be re-elected. Shorten opposed Butler running for the job three years ago and was livid over a recent speech in which Butler argued party reform had been thwarted by “backroom buffoonery” and criticised Labor’s low primary vote and falling membership. Several Labor frontbenchers oppose Butler seeking another term as it conflicts with his frontbench duties.

Saturday’s Batman by-election is another test; many think the seat will be lost to the Greens. Yet Labor still has no effective strategy for combating the Greens on its left flank and the Coalition on its right. Shorten’s wishy-washy approach to the Adani coalmine underscores this. Labor does not know whether to pander to the Greens or fight them.

A factional realignment in Victoria is causing further headaches for Shorten, who unwisely inserted himself into negotiations with union and faction chiefs last year. He should remain above the fray. The move to torpedo the so-called “stability pact” that has kept the peace for years is risky.

Another worry is Shorten’s closeness to the militant Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union, which has been lashed by judges and fined millions for its repeated illegal behaviour. Aligning himself with CFMEU thugs at Oaky North was stupid. He should listen to Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd and cut ties with the union.

The best thing going for Labor is the Coalition. The government is divided, scandal-ridden and perennially distracted by its own blunders. While failing to win enough credit for its policy initiatives, it is unable to prosecute an effective political strategy to capitalise on them.

Yet governments have often turned their fortunes around when survival looked bleak. Maybe it is beyond Malcolm Turnbull but plenty of prime ministers have been further behind in the polls and written off by the media yet have won the next election: Hawke, Paul Keating and John Howard for instance.

Shorten cannot hope that Turnbull’s problems continue to mask his own. The key challenge for Shorten is Labor’s national conference. There is a lot at stake. Shorten is a supreme deal-maker and thrives in this environment. He will need all the skills he can muster to avoid leaving Adelaide saddled with policies he does not support and are toxic with voters.

Many in Labor want to see more vision from Shorten. In more than four years as leader, he has not developed a coherent or compelling narrative about what Labor stands for, who it represents or what it wants to achieve. The party is too reactive, rarely discusses philosophy and detailed policy work is sporadic.

The next election is Shorten’s last shot at becoming prime minister. He won’t get the opportunity to lead Labor into a third election from opposition, a luxury last afforded to Arthur Calwell in 1966. Shorten better make the most of it because some in his own ranks worry that the path to victory may not be as easy as he thinks.

[Rorschach]

Has Shorten's popularity ever been above the 30s?

There has to be a reason for that doesn't there.

[Rorschach]

Beaconsfield Bill popped up in the NT today... gee I wonder what that was about?

[The Mechanic]

Beaconsfield Bill popped up in the NT today... gee I wonder what that was about?

he wont be coming to Victoria any time soon,,...

[Neferti]

Beaconsfield Bill popped up in the NT today... gee I wonder what that was about?

he wont be coming to Victoria any time soon,,...

Why? I thought he was born in Melbourne. His Electorate is in Melbourne.

[The Mechanic]

Beaconsfield Bill popped up in the NT today... gee I wonder what that was about?

he wont be coming to Victoria any time soon,,...

Why? I thought he was born in Melbourne. His Electorate is in Melbourne.

because the Dan Andrews Labor government just got caught out rorting the victorian tax payers...

they stole money from the tax payer to pay unemployed people to campaign for them and told them to keep quiet about it...

then

they spent over ONE MILLION DOLLARS fighting the investigation oF how they stole tax payers money...

then

they got found GUILTY OF STEALING VICTORIAN TAX PAYERS MONEY after fighting it all the way to the high court..

so then ...

Andrews came out and said... -- errrr... we paid back the money.. its all ok...

wtf??????????????????????????

are you freaking kidding me???????????

21 MPs rorted the money and should be thrown in Jail... along with Andrews...

[Black Orchid]

AND they should be liable for the $1 million they wasted fighting their own dishonesty.

[LEFTWINGER supreme]

Smell the fear

[LEFTWINGER supreme]

Grey area rightards , Tony said so