The destabilisation of Malcolm Turnbull is starting

[Redneck]

The sooner this tosser is booted out the better as far as I am concerned...Red


The destabilisation of Malcolm Turnbull is starting

Ross Fitzgerald

A former Liberal premier of NSW used to tell confidants that his state was basically Labor and the only way for the Liberals to win was to have Labor values but Liberal competence. I doubt that Prime Minister Turnbull has thought that deeply about this but the only way he will win the next election is if his NSW ex-colleague's dictum applies to the whole country.

The Turnbull government is said to have had its best fortnight yet but its three cited achievements: a superannuation compromise, some modest savings measures and showcasing Australia's border protection policies at the UN were all capitulations to someone else.


With the announcement of another budget backflip, the Turnbull government sinks to a new low in the polls.

On super, Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison surrendered to party conservatives who insisted that the backdated cap on non-concessional contributions was electoral rat poison in Coalition seats. On savings, the government accepted Labor's proposals rather than fight for its own. And on border protection, the Prime Minister, through gritted teeth, finally embraced the Abbott policies that he'd never liked.

For as long as the Turnbull government lasts, this is what we'll see: deals with Labor or the Greens to raise taxes, cut concessions or reduce so-called middle-class welfare; incessant discussion with the crossbench to produce watered down versions of the Abbott government's policies to get tough with militant unions; and look-both-ways, hedge-your-bets responses to any new circumstance that the government might face.
The Turnbull government is said to have had its best fortnight yet but its three cited achievements: a superannuation ...
The Turnbull government is said to have had its best fortnight yet but its three cited achievements: a superannuation compromise, some modest savings measures and showcasing Australia's border protection policies at the UN were all capitulations to someone else. Photo: Anthony Johnson

It's the Turnbull style: cut a deal, don't lead. In fact, he can't lead a centre-right party, at any rate because all his instincts are centre-left. Apart from being Prime Minister, the only things he actually believes in – same-sex marriage, a price on carbon, and an Australian republic – can't be pushed from the conservative side of politics. That, and the fear of bad polls, is why the Turnbull government is doomed to be a do-little one.

This week's Newspoll had Turnbull substantially more unpopular than the unpopular Bill Shorten and behind 48 to 52 on the two party-preferred vote. My hunch is that, in the future, the polls will oscillate between a draw and a Coalition loss. Turnbull's real problem won't be the polls, although people will delight in using them to score points against him, but his inability to craft a good reason to vote Liberal.

What is the point of the current government? If it's just to have Turnbull in the Lodge, rather than Shorten, voters are likely to conclude that they'd rather have a real Labor man than one who thought he'd get further by joining the Libs instead. That's why the same-sex marriage plebiscite is so fraught for Turnbull. He never liked it and only agreed to it as the price of rolling Abbott and getting a Coalition agreement from the National Party. If the Labor/Green/Xenophon bloc makes it impossible, Turnbull may eventually settle for a parliamentary free vote. But any departure from the plebiscite will strike large sections of the Coalition party room as a breach of faith.

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is still resentful over Turnbull's vacillation on the Kevin Rudd UN appointment. Morrison is still angry over the prime ministerial veto of serious tax reform. House leader Christopher Pyne is smarting over the prime ministerial rebuke for losing control of the Parliament. It's not yet a toxic combination because all three are jealous of each other and eager not to let a rival get an edge. But it's not a recipe for stability.

Turnbull is still neurotic about Abbott, prompting one colleague to warn him that the real enemy is Shorten. Abbott, meanwhile, was laughing off prospects of return; insisting on the need to get real on budget repair; reiterating that Muslim migrants had to want to join Team Australia like everyone else; and suggesting that he could stop the sharks like he stopped the boats by implementing policies that had been proven to work!

Because he's not a Howard or Abbott-style conservative, Turnbull will always get some benefit of the doubt from the media. His colleagues won't want to emulate Labor a second time by changing leader twice. But they're also conscious of how vulnerable the government is to a union-funded marginal seats campaign. Last time, to win, Labor needed to target two dozen seats. Next federal election half a dozen will do.

You read it here first: by the middle of next year the destabilisation of Turnbull will start and will be orchestrated by someone who not only desperately wants to be PM but who already has form as a leaker.

Now who could that be?

Ross Fitzgerald is an emeritus professor of history and politics at Griffith University.

[Redneck]

18 comments
Sort comments by
Tony BMelb,Oct 2 2016 at 10:32am

Never been a Less exciting time to be the PM.
CraigOct 2 2016 at 10:33am

The destabilisation started when Abbott was toppled.
The far right of the LNP will never cede power
GottalarfOct 2 2016 at 10:35am

A good deal of wishful thinking there. Not what I would call a balanced article but one more inclined to support the author's political bias. More of an opinion piece.

It's Not Easy Being GreenOct 2 2016 at 10:52am

You could argue that all comments/articles are opinion pieces
Whether an article is balanced or not depends on your political views.
Don't all articles generally tend to support the author's views?
Anyway I thought it was balanced but that is based on my opinion.

Roger KaputnikOct 2 2016 at 10:38am

Abbott will not regain the PM however he will absolutely destroy this govt by the middle of next year requiring another election
The Jolly TaxpayerOct 2 2016 at 10:43am

What absolute nonsense - the destabilisation of Malcolm Turnbull started the day he assumed the Prime Ministership
BeammeupOct 2 2016 at 10:43am

It should be obvious by now that Turnbull is not 'centre-left'. He's as much a right wing nut job as the rest of his cronies. Witness his tirade this week against renewable energy.
DR T B LYNCHROCKHAMPTON,Oct 2 2016 at 10:46am

This is better value than the Murdoch press, and shows a real understanding of Australia's problems.
BoukefalosSaint-Denis,Oct 2 2016 at 10:48am

So that means Kevin Rudd will be orchestrating the destabilisation of Turnbull? Unbelievable! But does he really need destabilisation? He's doing a good job by himself of heading for the Prime Ministerial exit door.
Ben AshNewcastle ,Oct 2 2016 at 10:49am

Maybe Turnbull doesn't have any core beliefs or values. A friend recently suggested that sadly like many lawyers Turnbull sees himself more as a silk for hire to argue whatever brief he's taken on.
DukeofWoyWoyCentral Coast NSW,Oct 2 2016 at 10:50am

Thank you Ross.
The destabilisation began several months ago and has not yet hit fever pitch, but will shortly.

A large percentage of his party are starting to blame him directly for the abysmal result in the election, and for the loss of the control of the House at the end of the first week of the new Government.

The electorate is also losing faith in the P.M., and this is due to the fact that the P.M. is, actually living a lie, and not believing in most of his Party's policies and agenda,
and we all are aware that he is in the wrong party, but he would be like a fish out of the water if he was a member of either Labor or the Greens.

He is, in fact, a true small 'l' Liberal, but that party does no longer exist, as it has become more, and more right wing, something that Bob Menzies would be horrified with.

Eventually the L.N.P. will have either, convince the P.M.to voluntarily step down or, if that does not occur, they will have to spill him out of the position, which they did with Abbott, and the electorate will condemn them for doing, as they condemned Labor in 2013.

And, yes Ross, the P.M's. position is becoming more untenable as each day goes along with him being the leader of a 'do nothing' Government.

ThomhoEast Melbourne,Oct 2 2016 at 10:51am
Interesting that in one week we had James Allan in the Spectator and Bernard Keene in Crikey both having a shot at Turnbull snd now Ross Fitzgerald.
gary and nolamerimbula,Oct 2 2016 at 10:52am

When Centrelink's letters are posted out to several hundred thousand part pensioners sometime in December telling them that they'll be thousands of dollars worse off next year, it'll be all over for he coalition. Many don't know what's coming. The majority of these people are (were) coalition voters. We'll lose around $220 per week, but many will lose a lot more. We now have a great deal of incentive to move from the couples part pension, and onto the full pension. As for those coming thru the system, don't bother busting a gut trying increase your super balance, the Libs have taken away any incentive to save. Watch the fur fly towards the end of the year--a blight on them all.
Curious Oct 2 2016 at 10:53am

So who is the leaker
RosieOct 2 2016 at 10:53am

Pass the popcorn, nothing like watching the death of a PM by 1000 cuts, wouldn't want to be you Malcolm.

Pluto Melbourne ,Oct 2 2016 at 11:14am

Yes. Imagine Malcolm in that magic act, the one about sawing the lady in half! Oops! Because Malcolm cannot be a whole person and stick to any of his gut-felt beliefs. His inauthenticity is what is doing him in. Vain, selfish, gutless. But they're all like that, especially as we will see, the one that finally does him in. So there will never be an end to it.

MBFOct 2 2016 at 10:55am

Turnball. A liberal leading the . Never had a chance, hasn't got a hope.
PeterOct 2 2016 at 10:55am

Sick of hearing how Turnbull is not at fault for the policies and that it's the Conservatives fault. Either he accepts the policies or he is weak, either way he is choosing to support the policies.
Bob Gold Coast ,Oct 2 2016 at 10:56am

Disappointing that the writer suggests we will have to tolerate Turnbull until the middle of next year. 9 months away... can't it be brought forward ?,next week would be more beneficial to the country. .

[Rorschach]

Wassup, not a Turnbull fan?
He'd make a great Labor Leader, thought you'd like that.

[Redneck]

Wassup, not a Turnbull fan?
He'd make a great Labor Leader, thought you'd like that.

He is a ditherer imo regardless of what party he was in!

[Rorschach]

But in the right party for his politics like labor... he may not dither

[Neferti]

Honestly, Redneck, you must surely know that I did NOT vote for Turnbull becoming PM. Nor did Cods. He is NOT worth 2 bob as far as I am concerned.

I didn't "like" Tony Abbott either and, generally, I dislike politicians ... regardless of what Party.

I refuse to vote "independent" as that is as worthless as scribbling rude piccies on the ballot paper.

In Australia ONLY one of the two major Parties will be The Government. Sometimes there is a "hung government" and IF the Greens get asked they'll verge far left (not centre left) and go ALP ... it happened in Federal Politics and it happened last election in Canberra.

IF people had voted for major Party and not some "Red Tomato Party" as a protest ... we wouldn't have this crap. If compulsory voting (being marked off the Rolls) wasn't the norm, ONLY the people interested enough would vote and we would get an entirely different Government. Plus there wouldn't be so much crap and TV adverts and "free" stuff that gets the drongos in.

The current Federal Government IS crap. The alternative is also crap. The ACT Government is crap. Ditto is happening in the US of A.

We are DOOOMED.

NB This is my OPINION.

[IQS.RLOW]

Bleat

[Rorschach]

I'm sorry... HYPOCRITE
Is widdle Princess Potty Mouth having a widdle meltdown?
Seems to me you just don't have what it takes for much of anything.

[IQS.RLOW]

Bleat

[Rorschach]

with every post you keep proving me right... you might just be dumber than Aussie after all