Hmmmm At the mining boom before the one, Whitlam had higher relative (to GDP) budget surpluses than Tip!
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/ ... d_gdp/P25/
Access economics says recession is over
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Don't poop in these threads. This isn't Europe, okay? There are rules here!
Don't poop in these threads. This isn't Europe, okay? There are rules here!
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skippy
Re: Access economics says recession is over
Oh thats gold.Whitlam had higher relative (to GDP) budget surpluses than Tip!
The rightards will go into melt down reading that.The best thing is, its from the Liberal party gazzette.
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Jovial Monk
Re: Access economics says recession is over
George is one of the two good commentators they have. Wish the ABC would snaffle him.
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Leftofcentresalterego
Access economics says recession is over
Okay, unemployment is holding steady at 5.8%.
This is a good sign and a world beating figure compared to the sorry-arse situation in many other developed countries. Righties, grudgingly grit your teeth and give the government full marks for it's swift and generally well targetted fiscal intervention
. The coalition's strategy would have been "do as little as possible and the market will soon correct itself". This was the advice given to and in many ways taken by a Labor government 
last time they were in power by neo-liberal economic advisers whose way of thinking had come to totally dominate the economics profession by then. Unemployment then proceeded to rise to nearly 11% and I was one of them. They are still there today - I think Rudd should have had a "night of the long knives" and weeded out the poisonous neo-liberal thinkers that more or less dominate the upper echalons of the public service and advisory boards (there is an article on on-line opinion at the moment, written by a bloke who was recently adviser to Craig Emmerson. It is the most appalling piece of toxic shit I have read for some time, calling for permanent unemployment as an inflation control measure and pay cuts for the most vulnerable in society. This fluffy bunny was advising a Labor minister to hurt ordinary Australians while he was sitting pretty on a big fat government salary. Give 'im the firing squad I say!!.)
Anyway, I'm digressing. We can't get too complacent. The thing about this downturn is that while UNemployment has only risen by a relatively small amount thanks heavily to the stimulus, UNDERemployment has shot up and is continuing to rise. The economy lost 4 million working hours last month as more and more full time jobs are converted into part-time jobs. Total labour underutilisation (unemployment + underemployment) now stands at 13.6%.
Rising under-employment has been the number one theme of the whole neo-liberal era.
With so many housholds having lost part of their income, and Australians being so heavily mortgaged, a decision by the RBA to hike interest rates and return them to the "neutral level" of 5.5%-6% would tip many households over the edge. Foreclosures would spike and many of those who did not lose their homes would still find their already reduced income - that is, their ability to contribute to aggregate demand and give businesses a reason to keep employing people - reduced further still.
Glen Stevens should decide that under the current circumstances, interest rates of 5.5%-6% are no longer "neutral" in effect but are an economic depressant.
We need money spent on direct job creation programs. The stimulus has been great but we are still looking to the private market to sort everything out, albeit with a little help from government.
Bring back Keynsian era type policy approaches I say (tailored to modern realities) and let's have full employment like we did for all those decades.
This is a good sign and a world beating figure compared to the sorry-arse situation in many other developed countries. Righties, grudgingly grit your teeth and give the government full marks for it's swift and generally well targetted fiscal intervention
. The coalition's strategy would have been "do as little as possible and the market will soon correct itself". This was the advice given to and in many ways taken by a Labor government last time they were in power by neo-liberal economic advisers whose way of thinking had come to totally dominate the economics profession by then. Unemployment then proceeded to rise to nearly 11% and I was one of them. They are still there today - I think Rudd should have had a "night of the long knives" and weeded out the poisonous neo-liberal thinkers that more or less dominate the upper echalons of the public service and advisory boards (there is an article on on-line opinion at the moment, written by a bloke who was recently adviser to Craig Emmerson. It is the most appalling piece of toxic shit I have read for some time, calling for permanent unemployment as an inflation control measure and pay cuts for the most vulnerable in society. This fluffy bunny was advising a Labor minister to hurt ordinary Australians while he was sitting pretty on a big fat government salary. Give 'im the firing squad I say!!.)Anyway, I'm digressing. We can't get too complacent. The thing about this downturn is that while UNemployment has only risen by a relatively small amount thanks heavily to the stimulus, UNDERemployment has shot up and is continuing to rise. The economy lost 4 million working hours last month as more and more full time jobs are converted into part-time jobs. Total labour underutilisation (unemployment + underemployment) now stands at 13.6%.
Rising under-employment has been the number one theme of the whole neo-liberal era.
With so many housholds having lost part of their income, and Australians being so heavily mortgaged, a decision by the RBA to hike interest rates and return them to the "neutral level" of 5.5%-6% would tip many households over the edge. Foreclosures would spike and many of those who did not lose their homes would still find their already reduced income - that is, their ability to contribute to aggregate demand and give businesses a reason to keep employing people - reduced further still.
Glen Stevens should decide that under the current circumstances, interest rates of 5.5%-6% are no longer "neutral" in effect but are an economic depressant.
We need money spent on direct job creation programs. The stimulus has been great but we are still looking to the private market to sort everything out, albeit with a little help from government.
Bring back Keynsian era type policy approaches I say (tailored to modern realities) and let's have full employment like we did for all those decades.
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Jovial Monk
Re: Access economics says recession is over
Real economists don't use the 'two quarters of negative growth=recession' mantra. They use stuff like unemployment numbers & trends. Stephens is not likely to raise interest rates anytime soon.
One aspect of neoliberalism is that we should pay CEOs ridiculous amounts of pay, 100x the amount paid to the average worker at an enterprise and then to tax this income lightly. Thus both wages and tax collections suffer. Sol and his $30m payout--for being responsible for lowering the share price! Several Telstra employees committed suicide from the workload and performance being always hitched higher and higher.
One aspect of neoliberalism is that we should pay CEOs ridiculous amounts of pay, 100x the amount paid to the average worker at an enterprise and then to tax this income lightly. Thus both wages and tax collections suffer. Sol and his $30m payout--for being responsible for lowering the share price! Several Telstra employees committed suicide from the workload and performance being always hitched higher and higher.
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Howard Stinks
Re: Access economics says recession is over
I was watching Cristopher Pyne on the ABC TV firing blanks last night, it was John Howard who saved us. The idiot doesn't know what he is talking about, he was going around in circles for 10 minutes.
Last edited by Howard Stinks on Sat Sep 12, 2009 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Howard Stinks
Re: Access economics says recession is over
Did you hear? He will not travel to China from fear he wil end up in a BBQ. Boom,boom.Jovial Monk wrote:Christopher Whyne, the mincing poodle.
Anyone for Dog mince snags?
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Sockpuppet Monk
Re: Access economics says recession is over
You are just what this board needs HS!
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Jovial Monk
Re: Access economics says recession is over
Looking back twelve months to the collapse of Lehman Bros, the real start of the GFC and the actions of Rudd & Swan, a quote from PB:
If the Fibs had been in office we would have 10% unemployment and -1.3%GDP growth. Thank fuck they weren't.
Total idiots in the MSM are still calling Ruddy to make courageous decisions! With the GFC turning Tip's structural deficits into cash ones we were facing a deficit of $205Bn over four years. Rudd first made a 1% of GDP stimulus in the form of the cheques to pensioners then increased that and started the schools and other infrastructure spending. That was ballsy. So was the bank guarantee decision.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/busines ... -fkw0.htmlTalking of what the history books will say, here are a couple of articles recalling the start of the financial crisis 12 months on.
Rudd and Swanny come out of it looking like heros.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/horror-d ... -fkxc.htmlCHRISTIAN: I think history will most certainly present the decisions that were taken by the Australian Government as fairly pivotal. It had a lot to do with our confidence in this country. The economy and credit flow is all about confidence. Without question, we felt the stimulus package was required to curb the anxiety. I would be very surprised if there was anyone who would deny that (the bank guarantee) was one of the key reasons why many of the depositors did not withdraw their funds.
Mr Korda said he agreed that a guarantee was necessary.
''I have absolutely no doubt that, without that government guarantee, there would have been a run on one or more regional banks in Australia,'' he said. ''The Government acted very quickly, and the actions they took that weekend and the stance they made averted that.''
On October 12, Mr Rudd announced the unlimited guarantee of deposits, which removed the threat of a run on an Australian bank.
A year on, former Goldman Sachs JBWere chief executive Craig Drummond said a crisis was only just averted.
''If you look at the bank deposit guarantee and the ban on short-selling, both of them did a pretty bloody-good job,'' he said. ''The reality is, if the Government hadn't taken that stance on deposits, we would've had a run on a handful of smaller banks in Australia. That didn't happen.''
If the Fibs had been in office we would have 10% unemployment and -1.3%GDP growth. Thank fuck they weren't.
Total idiots in the MSM are still calling Ruddy to make courageous decisions! With the GFC turning Tip's structural deficits into cash ones we were facing a deficit of $205Bn over four years. Rudd first made a 1% of GDP stimulus in the form of the cheques to pensioners then increased that and started the schools and other infrastructure spending. That was ballsy. So was the bank guarantee decision.
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