Moore's Law - Is there a Limit?

[AiA in Atlanta]

We've all heard of Moore's Law - computational power is doubling every 18 months - and according to this law within the next 30 years we will be able to manufacture $1000 computers that are capable of as many calculations per second as the human brain. Some say there is a hard physical limit to this growth but other say there will be a shift that will break through any limit. Seems to me the future is beyond imaging ...

[Super Nova]

They have been predicting the end of Moores law for many years now but the scientists and the engineers still find novel ways of packing more transistors in and getting them closer.

I don't think it will stop. the solution maybe a completely new way to configure switches using light or going down to the individual atom level for construction. There is also the promise of Quantum Computing and there is a long way to go for that. it may not be good for linear programming as we do today and require a complete rethink of software to take advantage of it.

I would place my money on moores law applying for the next 10-15 years at least.

[Chard]

Yes, there is a limit on Moore's Law, and it's dictated by the what element you're making the dies out of and how many atoms it takes to form the transistors. As it is with silicon we're already approaching that barrier, though new lithography techniques using carbon could lead to yet smaller transistors (not because of fewer atoms, but because carbon atoms are smaller than silicon and easier to form into tighter, denser materials). Ultimately though the hard you-shall-not-pass limit is the fact that there's only so much matter in the universe you can use to make transistors.

Hope that answers your question.

[Jovial_Monk]

There is a similar law of internet speeds. Our PM–reject wants to turn his back onto that. Good luck!

[Super Nova]

There is a similar law of internet speeds. Our PM–reject wants to turn his back onto that. Good luck!

Really.

Can you name this law and provide a reference to it please.

[Super Nova]

There is a similar law of internet speeds. Our PM–reject wants to turn his back onto that. Good luck!

Really.

Can you name this law and provide a reference to it please.

Found it.

http://www.nngroup.com/articles/law-of-bandwidth/

Nielsen's Law of Internet Bandwidth

Nielsen's Law of Internet bandwidth states that:
• a high-end user's connection speed grows by 50% per year
•you don't get to use this added bandwidth to make your Web pages larger until 2003

The dots in the diagram show the various speeds with which I have connected to the Net, from an early acoustic 300 bps modem in 1984 to an ISDN line when I first wrote this article (and updated to show the 31 Mbps cable modem I got in 2010). It is amazing how closely the empirical data fits the exponential growth curve for the 50% annualized growth stated by Nielsen's Law. (The y -axis has a logarithmic scale: thus, a straight line in the diagram represents exponential growth by a constant percentage every year).

[Chard]

The dots in the diagram show the various speeds with which I have connected to the Net, from an early acoustic 300 bps modem in 1984 to an ISDN line when I first wrote this article (and updated to show the 31 Mbps cable modem I got in 2010). It is amazing how closely the empirical data fits the exponential growth curve for the 50% annualized growth stated by Nielsen's Law. (The y -axis has a logarithmic scale: thus, a straight line in the diagram represents exponential growth by a constant percentage every year).

Not sure what's more amusing here... That you geeked out so hard over Nielsen's Law or that you felt you had to explain what a logarithmic scale was. Almost made me spit-take a mouthful of coffee there, chief.

[Jovial_Monk]

Amusing thing to me is that Super Brown Noser knows of this law yet thinks we here should go back to last century copper and last decade speeds!