Election 2013

[Rorschach]

[Mattus]

ALP could pick up 6 seats in Qld, 2 in NSW, lose 1 in Vic, lose 2 in Tas, SA status quo, WA ALP could pick up 1 or 2 seats. Result—ALP retains govt. That is plausible with current polling.

I don't see how.

Six seats in Queensland! Presumably you must mean Brisbane, Forde, Longman, Herbert, Dawson and Bonner? Unless you think ALP can take Fairfax with Palmer splitting the conservative votes and Somlyay retiring? Still, that would require an 8% swing, which isn't going to happen. Or perhaps you're counting Kennedy as an ALP win because Katter won't support the nationals in government?

Forde I think is probably a gain - it is a hell of a candidate they're dropping in. Brisbane maybe at a stretch, but the others would require a swing toward labor in a state which is swinging away from it. This is not to mention the fact that New England will be a Coalition gain with Joyce, and Rankin will be vulnerable with Emerson not standing again. Who knows what will happen in Moreton with Palmer and Katter delegates both standing.

Likewise in NSW, ALP will be battling to retain Kingsford Smith without their drop in Garret. I have no idea where you think you are going to get two seats... Macquarie? MacArthur? Not fucking likely. Instead get ready for a 15% swing away in Charlton because no one is going to think Pat Conroy is Greg Combet, and 15% away in Hotham because who the fuck is Clare O'Neil? Barton, too, may be vulnerable without McLelland's gravitas.

I assume the seat you think will be lost in Victoria is Lalor, because hubris tells you it should be lost without Gillard in it, right? Far more likely Deakin, Corrangamite and La Trobe will go to the right. But the good news is ALP might pick up Melbourne from the hippies.

How in hell you think you will pick up seats in WA is beyond me. Wyatt is not going to lose Hasluck.

No, I think there is no scenario in which ALP can win on a seat by seat basis. Even if they took the popular vote. Which makes me wonder what is the thinking behind P. Biddy coming back to contest Forde. I mean I have no doubt he has the ability to take Forde, but it won't change the outcome of the election. So what, P. Biddy cashes in his immense standing and what must be the best legacy one could hope for in state politics, to serve in the shadow minstery of an party so deep in minority of both houses that it can only watch as Abbott and Joyce tear down everything his ideals tell him is right in government? Fuck that. What a terrible codex to a career. In that regard I hope he loses the seat, for his sake.

[Jovial_Monk]

15% swing? Personal followings rarely amount to more than 2-3%, nice to have but not that huge.

Was just trying to show that overall figures are not that important compared to state breakdowns.

I think Rudd is an egomaniac, a micromanager who cannot make a decision and if elected PM again will cause huge problems when he has to be removed once more—the guy cannot run a government, just his personality, his failings. Abbott as PM would create a huge recession and some here will lose their job, others will face huge problems trying to survive on fixed super or pensions (that will be cut after Cossie hands in his joke of an “Audit” report.) I will be fine—with my hip operation I can find some work to supplement my income from super—which is 100% in cash ATM.

I have consequently decided to not vote this election and pay the fine—I do not want any part of the clusterfuck two fucking idiots at the head of their Parties are going to cause.

But I think one or two seats could fall to Labor in WA, going by reports from people living there.

[IQS.RLOW]

Taking the opinion from one of the biased sites you read full of posters with a similar fucked up attitude as you have, do not constitute "people living there". All they are is lonely labor luvvies who are too scared to mention who they vote for for fear of getting bashed.

Labor will be lucky to retain the pittance of seats they have here and are more likely to lose seats than gain any.

[Jovial_Monk]

Sure, whatever you say, numpty.

[Rorschach]

Funny how he identifies that Rudd is a narcissistic megalomaniac and still supports and advocates voting for him...

[Jovial_Monk]

I am not voting at all this election. Doesn’t stop me discussing the issues, moron!

And Abbott is just as bad. Would be a disaster as PM, especially as related to the economy as I have stated many times before.

[Jovial_Monk]

Note the RM Williams boots under the door of the last cubicle? Whose are they? Hmmmm!

[Rorschach]

I am not voting at all this election. Doesn’t stop me discussing the issues, moron!

And Abbott is just as bad. Would be a disaster as PM, especially as related to the economy as I have stated many times before.

Illegal not to vote... you wouldn't do anything illegal would you?
Not very patriotic of you eh?

I want you to discuss issues... I'm not the moron.
So far you've failed to provide evidence to back your anti-Abbott tirades.
Why not give it a go?

Should I repost the facts about Labor revenue and expenditure for you one more time?

[Rorschach]

There you go Monk... let's discuss this