Newspoll hands Gillard more bad news

[Aussie]

It's like one fat disgusting old whore having a bitch fight with another fat disgusting old whore and telling everyone that they will never do another threesome together again, despite no one ever buying them but still living under the same brothel roof

....and exactly what did that add to the discussion apart from your usual pornographic offering? You are the prophylactic on the prick of PA progress, and it is past time something was done about it.

[IQS.RLOW]

It exercised the drag on my fishing reel but all I caught was a poisonous toadfish

[Super Nova]

WTF is this. You embark on a project when everyone tells you your business plan is crap. What sort of ecconomics is this. It's criminal from my view from afar. If you are going to invest in a public service for no eccomonic gain you should just say so.

THE Gillard government's innovation and jobs package was launched this week despite warnings from the Industry Department and the Tax Office that the $1 billion saving at the heart of the policy might never eventuate.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politi ... z2LLrnWQ4C

[Neferti]

Gillard and Co are so desperate that they are offering handouts already. There is nothing in the Bank to hand out. Not that that will worry the Bogans .....

Promising "good stuff" that will begin in 2016 is a good one too.

[Rorschach]

Time for Labor to plan what to do when they lose
Laurie Oakes
23 Feb 06:35am

The federal election might still be seven months away, but things are so grim for the Labor Party that minds are almost certainly being turned to a 2013 version of The Embassy Rooftop Strategy.

“It’s time to start wheeling the choppers out of their hangars,” an ALP veteran said yesterday, in reference to an operation mounted by a handful of MPs, party officials and government staffers before the 1996 election.

There is very little doubt now that Julia Gillard’s government is going to lose on September 14, and lose badly. Labor realists predict privately that the result will be worse than Paul Keating’s 1996 defeat; worse even than the anti-Whitlam routs of 1975 and 1977.

Gillard and those around her don’t share this view, which is understandable. If they lose hope they lose the ability to fight. But someone will have to prepare for the looming electoral disaster.

In 1996 it was a group centred on then ALP national secretary Gary Gray and operating in strict secrecy. I have told the story before, but it is worth repeating.

Gray put together a document headed What To Do When Labor Loses. A former senator and one-time party official, Stephen Loosley - from whom Gray sought advice - added the subtitle The Embassy Rooftop Strategy.

That was an allusion to the evacuation of more than 1000 Americans and 5000 South Vietnamese from the US Embassy in Saigon as North Vietnamese troops occupied the city in April, 1975.

Helicopters plucked them from the embassy roof and flew them to ships of the US 7th Fleet in the South China Sea.

What To Do When Labor Loses was a plan to use the time remaining in government before an inevitable election defeat to set Labor up for opposition. “You save what you have to save,” a member of the group told me later.

It involved, among other things, warehousing of valued staffers in the bureaucracy, earmarking and retention of documents likely to be useful in opposition, and ways to protect the seats of talented MPs so they would be available to help Labor rebuild.
funnily enough I doubt they have any staffers of value at all, certainly there are very few MPs that are worth saving.

Keating was not told about it. He would have gone off his face had he known. But those involved are convinced the strategy laid the groundwork for Kim Beazley’s near win over John Howard in 1998.

Back in 1996, they didn’t fuel up the choppers until quite close to the election, partly because Keating’s awesome political skills gave the party hope until near the end.

But Gillard’s political skills are not in the Keating class, and voters have given plenty of notice of what is in store for Labor.
bats at the ready...

Should anyone associated with today’s ALP have the foresight of Gray and his colleagues 17 years ago, covert planning for how best to survive defeat can start earlier this time.

Gillard, meanwhile, can continue planning for the victory that she - unlike most of her Caucus - still believes is possible. delusion...

Now it is the May Budget that is pivotal to the Gillard strategy. Rots of ruck...

On Thursday night the government whip, Joel Fitzgibbon, commented that the Budget was Treasurer Wayne Swan’s best chance to “redraft the message, redraft the plan”.

And he added: “If we don’t get a bounce out of the Budget, we’ll be still in strife.” Ahhhh YOU are in strife and it started with There will be no Carbon tax under a government I lead...

Because Fitzgibbon is a supporter of Kevin Rudd, his words were seen in the context of the Labor leadership.

But, setting the leadership issue to one side, Gillard and Swan themselves are relying heavily on the Budget to turn the tables on Tony Abbott. Rots of ruck...

The idea is to produce a financial blueprint that shows how the government proposes to fund its policies, including the National Disability Insurance Scheme and the Gonski school funding reforms. Like you can believe anything they and their treasury can say...

That, they believe, will put irresistible pressure on Abbott to explain where the coalition intends to get money for its expensive promises - including which programs would be axed. Carbon tax, Climate Commission, mining tax, NBN, various redundant compensation packages...

The Liberals and Nationals would certainly be vulnerable to such an attack, if the government had the ability to mount it effectively. LOL...

But the Prime Minister and the Treasurer have not been able to turn already announced coalition cutbacks to the government’s advantage.

Proposed abolition of the Schoolkids Bonus should have the potential to cause the coalition political pain. So should reversal of the tripling of the tax free threshold.

Effectively the coalition would force many Australians back into the tax system.

But Gillard and Swan struggle with retail politics, and that does not augur well for Labor in a Budget battle against Abbott - one of the most effective populist politicians on the scene.

In any case, Swan has been so embarrassed over the surplus backflip and the mining tax debacle that he will battle to be taken seriously when he gets to his feet for the Budget speech.

That is why the talk in Caucus is about the size of the expected election defeat, not the possibility of victory.

But, amid the gloom, there is just a touch of optimism. More delusion

“Even if we lose as badly as I think we will, it doesn’t necessarily mean we will be out of office for a long time,” says a prominent Labor MP. true.

“It only took us eight years to get back into office after the 1975 landslide.”

Laurie Oakes is political editor for the Nine Network and Labor Supporter.

[IQS.RLOW]

Monk will be pleased. This is obvious a sign that the ALP on on the right track and losing primary votes is all part of the greater plan

ALP prim= 31

And seeing that he was clinging to the PPM figures, Abbott is kicking her fat arse all over the shop

[Neferti]

test

Well done for a first post.

Welcome.

Post away. Don't be shy!

[Neferti]

Monk will be pleased. This is obvious a sign that the ALP on on the right track and losing primary votes is all part of the greater plan

ALP prim= 31

And seeing that he was clinging to the PPM figures, Abbott is kicking her fat arse all over the shop

Last I looked none of the MSM were reporting about this Newspoll. They are still avoiding stuff by talking about the "blade runner".

[Aussie]

Some logical criticism of these Polls.

The Newspoll fraud continues, and shows, this morning, variety.

It has not only ‘been weighted to reflect the population distribution’ (translation: we made up the figures) but, this time, would you actually believe it, not taken, not taken at all, ‘in areas affected by flood and bushfire’; in Queensland, that is, where the anti-Newman pro-Katter surge is huge now; in the Hunter Valley where Labor predominates, or used to; in Eden Monario, a litmus seat; and in Victoria where the Baillieu-blighted Liberal vote is rapidly tanking.

This uncorrected omission of numbers comes under criminal fraud I would think, and O’Shannessy should be arrested; in my view.

There are also 9 percent ‘refused’ or ‘uncommitted’, representing a million voters. A million is a tidy few. On top of which are, oh, fifteen million mobile phones not being rung.

It is tempting for these reasons to call this poll entirely worthless, or the equivalent of mass forgery, or Confederate currency in 1866; but it does show evidence, comrades, of a game-changing shift in voter intent.

This is to be seen in the ‘Others’ column, up from 6.6 in 2010 to 11 last weekend. That 4.4 shift, half a million votes, is clearly going Katter’s way in those heartland Queensland seats the LNP can’t easily hold any more, the ones unflooded last weekend that is, the half of rural and coastal Queensland that wasn’t flooded.

So, if you un-tweak the figures, throw in a margin of error, and some Katter votes trickling down to Labor in preferences, and some ten million mobile phones unrung, Labor wins this poll or scores 49.5, and Gillard leads Abbott 39-37.

I ask the Senate to investigate Newspoll and ask it to justify its methodology. About twenty-five percent of Australians don’t have, or don’t use landline phones any more since it’s cheaper to use mobiles only. And those mobiles aren’t rung, not one of them. Which means three million voters, probably, aren’t contacted. And the answered landlines, the whole of the sample that is, belong to and are used by preponderantly older people; who mostly, not always, vote Liberal.

Discuss.

It’s a pack of lies, probably.

[IQS.RLOW]

You must be the first person in the world to describe Bob Ellis as 'logical'
Everyone else describes him as a fucking moron