For someone you claim only posts right wing journos mantra I sure do post lots of LW/Prog ones. But then Lenore does tend to be a bit more balanced than you heroes like Mike Carlton
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Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/ ... z2B8BZYHHO" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;Voter enthusiasm now well and truly curbed
November 3, 2012
Lenore Taylor
National Affairs Correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald
After two bitter years, Australia's political tug of war appears to have reached that frozen moment when the teams have struggled back to almost even pegging and no one is sure which way the advantage will tip. Oh Lenore, you are such a wag.
It has taken some graceless sliding about, but Julia Gillard has finally hauled Labor back to a competitive, or at at least a ''within cooee'', position in most opinion polls.![]()
But according to qualitative pollsters - the ones who ask not how people intend to vote, but why, this change is not due to any great enthusiasm for Labor, but rather a re-evaluation of which of the major parties represents the lesser evil. Can't get any worse dear, the other team can't do worse, so that means they will do better.
The executive director of Ipsos Mackay report, Rebecca Huntley, says voters are still very negative about the Gillard government, but are increasingly wondering whether a change of government would improve things.
Vicki Arbes, the chief executive of the polling company Hall and Partners Open Mind, says many voters have been so unimpressed by the spectacle of a desperate minority government clinging on against the Coalition's attempts to pull it down they are almost past caring.
''The anger and disappointment voters felt for Labor after their high expectations in 2007 has dissipated because they have just switched off from the whole thing in disgust. They are disenchanted with politicians and bored with the whole spectacle.''
Both agree the carbon tax campaign by the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, has run out of puff. Yet to be seen... Bill pain is yet to fully kick in. Huntley says the big issue now is job security and economic uncertainty. Doing fine under Labor... NOT! Arbes says politicians have to completely change the conversation if they want voters to start paying attention again - they need to have ideas and to sound like their main concern is real people Not Gillard's concern and their concerns for the future, rather than the latest political game. Gillard's concern. Hold onto power, whatever it takes, no matter how many lies you have to tell.
Which appears to be exactly what Labor has been trying to do. Told you so...
Gillard is ending the year with the momentum of mega-announcements - the Asian Century white paper, the ''$1.7 billion'' top-up for water for the Murray Darling Basin - even though the absence of much money for the forseeable future means they look a lot less ''mega'' upon closer inspection and tangible benefits are usually found somewhere over a distant horizon.
The disability reform legislation and the energy reform package she will take to the Council of Australian Governments on December 7 to tackle the non-carbon tax drivers of power bills will keep the busyness going almost right up until Christmas.
It all feeds into the metanarrative that claims Labor to be forward looking and visionary and interested in the big issues, while the Coalition is negative, down and dirty and running out of ideas.![]()
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The tactic has seen off the immediate danger of any challenge from Kevin Rudd and has left Abbott wrong-footed and losing ground.
But it is by no means clear that it will be enough. The asylum issue remains unresolved as the government dips deeper and deeper into John Howard's (once derided) solutions. The Health Services Union saga won't go away. The Coalition is not letting go of the allegations surrounding the Prime Minister's actions as a young lawyer at Slater and Gordon. The promised surplus is dripping away with every downward revision to revenue. And the Prime Minister remains unpopular and so does the minority government she leads. Very unpopular.
But nor is it clear how Abbott regains his mojo from here.
Yes, people remain deeply concerned about their cost of living, but they don't blame one thing any more. Not the carbon tax, which appears to be having a slightly lesser inflationary effect than many households have already been compensated for. You will find it increasingly affecting such things and that the compensation for many especially the poorer will not be enough. And certainly not the mining tax since, embarrassingly for the government, it doesn't look like it will raise any money in the first quarter at all. But Abbott's election campaign, indeed his first term in government, was to be defined by abolishing the carbon tax and the mining tax - neither of which is turning out to be a big deal for the economy.
And he is sticking to that script - starting the week with another trip to a small business to be hit by the carbon tax and another question time dominated by carbon tax queries - despite the fact the government is now responding with ridicule and derision. Because that is all they have left... yak it up while you can Labor the bats are at the ready.
Other parts of his economic policy remain confused. Abbott staked his credibility this week on opposing deregulation of the wheat industry, the exact reverse of the position that has traditionally defined Liberal economic policy. So he can't have different ideas, less traditional capitalist ideas?
And some are starting to look ill-advised. The Coalition has always boasted it would cut the budget deeper and faster than Labor could ever even think about. The gross figure of $70 billion worth of cuts over the forward estimates was initially confirmed and then denied, but it will require some tens of billions of dollars to keep the tax cuts and pension increases paid for from the carbon tax while abolishing the tax itself, introduce expensive paid parental leave and other spending priorities and return the budget to a bigger surplus than Labor. Yet you list without thought Lenore. Selective and lying by omission. naughty naughty... gotta do that I suppose since you just criticised Labor.
Those kinds of cuts are hard to find. Abbott, also trying to change the conversation to a positive agenda, this week (re)trumpeted $1 billion worth of savings from red tape reductions A YEAR, first announced in his 2011 budget in reply speech. But the government has since then started a process with business to do exactly that, and red taping savings are a perennial budget saving for oppositions and are notoriously difficult to quantify. Nothing wrong with re-announcing Lenore even if Juliar tried to make a big deal of it there will no doubt be a lot of that happening especially during the election campaignPeople wonder why the Coalition don't announce all their policies, even though most can be found on their website. Gee how many will Labor steal? not that I personally care about that, that too can be turned into a Coalition positive.
And huge cuts sit uneasily with the warning from business groups this week that the economy is slowing and we are pretty close to the point where it could be self-defeating to engage in more big reductions in spending.
''People want a vision, a leader they can trust to navigate through global economic uncertainties and allay their personal economic fears. They don't like the government, but Tony Abbott himself remains a big stumbling block to changing it,'' Huntley says. Only if you believe and foster the propaganda. I was very pleased with what was in Tony Abbott's letter this week. it shows a deal of pragmatism and common sense.
So the tug of war continues, each side trying to find an idea to cut through the disillusionment and tip things in their direction, and voters puzzling which side they dislike the most.