Qld election 21st March.

[Jovial Monk]

Galaxy poll released, polling done over the last two days. Sample size unknown.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/electioncent ... axy-50-50/

LNP slightly ahead on primaries, TPP 50:50. This gives Labor an 85% chance of getting the 45 seats it needs to win government. Remember, Galaxy gives good results for Fib/Nuts parties so the situation likely a little bit worse for the Pineapple Party than that.

The link above gives the details on how 50:50 leads to a sure Labor victory. Warning: read it slowly and have ice to hand or those a bit mathematically challenged might find their head will explode

[Jovial Monk]

Galaxy reported a poll it did a few days ago: 50:50. Sample size just 800 so Margin of Error 3.5% and this gives Labor a 85% chance of regaining government. Apparently another poll gave similar figures.

Have seen reported that the young Qld Treasurer, Fraser, is a great performer and likely future Premier. Hope Anna uses him a lot in the campaign, he comes across very well.

On the downside, another ratings agency is apparently considering downgrading the Qld govt's credit rating. But the govt will continue spending on infrastructure--the Brisbanites love the new roads etc.

Oh yeah, the Borg apparently said the GFC was "peripheral"--is he Sheepy's Dad or something?

[Jovial Monk]

Centrebet Labor $1.34 LNP $3.15

For the Borg, it is not 3rd time lucky.

[Jovial Monk]

I put $10 on Labor to win in Qld at $1.45. Labor now down to $1.30, LNP up to $3.10 (Sportingbet)

The Borg's 3% efficiency dividend while setting up 3 new agencies has put him even further behind.

Sportingbet does not offer bets on individual seats (yet) or I might put $10 on Labor to win Beaudesert at a juicy $2.40 which I think is too high, OPV might just mean Hanson and LNP leach enough votes from each other that do not flow through into preferences leaving Labor winning the seat!

[skippy]

Who's running for Labor in Beaudesert monk? I hear Warrick Capper is running for that seat as well, maybe the middle age housewife will swoon over him like the middle aged redneck swoons over Hanson, result, neither win they just cancel each other out, this seat could go on preferences Hanson voters will prob preference the nuts, and Cappers Labor.

[Jovial Monk]

Dunno Skippy.

Capper tho is not running--check the QEC website and you will find is not on the list as a candidate.

[Jovial Monk]

Umm careful with that preferences talk: most people "just vote one" i.e. a lot of votes do not go to the second preference etc.

[skippy]

Dunno Skippy.

Capper tho is not running--check the QEC website and you will find is not on the list as a candidate.

Isn't he? he was on the news last week saying he was standing for the seat, oh well there goes all the fun in watching that seat unfold.

[skippy]

And some body better tell the Brisbane times, their story yesterday says Capper is running.
"Beaudesert residents say they are bemused by the media spotlight being shone on their region as the state election race gets stranger by the day.

One voter likened declared candidates Pauline Hanson and Warwick Capper to actors in a Hollywood movie, while others welcomed the attention the area would gain because of the high-profile election battle."



http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/qu ... 25766.html

[skippy]

Arrr, just read your post on ozpolitic mantra, wazza never registered in time, why dosn't that surprise me? talk about dumb bimbo's he has to be the dumbest himbo around.