What will replace the Lieberal Party?

[Jovial Monk]

As we have seen from the ER Poll, just the latest in a really long list of polls, the Lieberals and their hangers on the Nutsional Party or Agrarian Socialists are fading into irrelevance.

The Party that Ming started has lost its way due to two reasons:

1. It never had a real succession plan, Ming and Rodent both made sure that no one of talent would ever end up in a position from which they could challenge Ming/Rodent.

2. Starting with Hewson the Party moved way to the right. Wasn't WorkChoices killed them, just that they could actually introduce such a package, a package in particular that would harm peoples' children! Scumbag of a thing to do!

So to get back it would have to move to the centre, a centre solidly occupied by Rudd and the ALP, and there are those who do not want to move from the extreme right: remember Minchin saying the party did not have to move left as suggested by my least favorite politician, Christopher Whine? In fact there are two constituencies within the Lieberal party, a progressive, educated inner-metro elite and the poorer, socially backward more rural wing.

I suggest the Lieberal Party will split (and quite a few inner metro Lieberals may move to the Greens) into a progressive, metro based wealthier party, call them the lieberal party (small 'l') and the bumpkins could well merge with the remaining Nuts (the Nuts will face pressure from intelligent hard working independents like Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott taking their seats) and we will call them the Country Party.

Naturally they will be in coalition but I think as part of the split they will lose members and support which might move to the Greens as I said above, a few to Labor etc etc, so while each can now concentrate on building and holding their own base they will be less than the Lieberal/Nuts coalition before the split--even minor new parties might form, remember the ^@#%* DLP?)

Of course, the other part of their problem is that Labor, since Whitlam and even more under Hawke, Keating and Rudd has moved rightwards to the centre: they are no longer a leftwing party--amazing how most of the press does not get that (plus our own Sheepy and WI!) The "coast to coast labor" the "union thugs" etc campaigns by Howard were futile, most people could see what has happened and there just was no resonance to the ads among the population.

Labor itself has no problem of two constituencies: the old Socialist Left went and joined the Greens and Labor itself is progressive and also pretty much metro based (altho Labor too is moving into the Nuts' turf, esp in Queensland.)

Of course splits could develop in the Party but not in the constituency base.

Knowing this we could see that the Pineapple Party (LNP) in Qld was doomed: farmers and upwardly mobile professionals in the same party? No way! And they will predictably be trounced by Anna Bligh in September this year.

Another change in the Labor Party: it is divorcing itself from its union base as that base is shrinking (whether that is a good thing we can discuss some other time) and moving to position itself more broadly. It hasn't really been a worker's party since I joined it in 72 (no longer a member, mainly because there is no subbranch locally I like )

Time scale? After the next election I think--and that election will be late in 2010 unless the Lieberals are stupid enough to give Rudd a goldplated duzy of an excuse for a DD. Under the Roosterman they might just do that!

[Jovial Monk]

Just for completeness I will add this:

Possum has analysed support for the Lieberals by age (among other things) and found that their strongest age cohort is the pre-boomer generation. In the normal course of things this generation will shuffle off this mortal coil, taking their high Coalition support with them. Poss thinks this could be as high as 20 seats!

Others argue that as the baby boomer generation ages they will become more conservative but I cannot see the Viet Nam war generation ever turning to the Fibs in a big way. All Labor has to do is continue being the sound economic managers and ensure older people are looked after to continue receiving their vote.

So, a split-constituency Party with their main support base dying off--they urgently need to reform and remake themselves but I see no sign that they are doing this. They will continue to drift. . .drifting into oblivion!

Mark my words: The Coalition will lose the next election and it will split shortly thereafter, with the Lieberal Party itself splitting as well.

Have a look at Possum for a detailed exposition on support by age cohorts.

[skippy]

Good post monk, yea possum has been saying for a while that the Libs voters are an endangered species I think he's right but its who replaces them that is the interesting question.
The Labor party hold the middle ground there is nowhere but to the right for them as they are, I think a party with the views of Barny and Tuckey ala One Nation will be one splinter, the rest are anybodys guess.

You should email this story to deepy, he needs some help in finding a decent story for his bog.

[Jovial Monk]

Why should I email Sheepy? He spends more time here than on his own comatose Forum!

[Jovial Monk]

The Greens are going nowhere: their support has shown a small but steady decline in several polls, down to 8% from 10%

Some might now shift to Nick, he has done more than the Greens in one tough negotiation than the Greens have in several years!

[White Indigene]

To answer the question;

I would say that a Media generated reactionary Autocratic Dictatorship, if only a mild one (benign PAP).

The ALP have confirmed this in the last week with the total mobilisation of Reactionary Forces in order to prop up the failing government and to veneer the National Psyche with layers of unity, strength, will and help.

None of which were mobilised in the days before the Victorian Fires.

Hence, the ALP will preside over the death of the Nation.

[skippy]

To answer the question;

I would say that a Media generated reactionary Autocratic Dictatorship, if only a mild one (benign PAP).

The ALP have confirmed this in the last week with the total mobilisation of Reactionary Forces in order to prop up the failing government and to veneer the National Psyche with layers of unity, strength, will and help.

None of which were mobilised in the days before the Victorian Fires.

Hence, the ALP will preside over the death of the Nation.

Right!

[Jovial Monk]

Wot he say? I need an English-White Indigenish dictionary!

Back to reality, Some of the early posts on Piping Shrike cover the disassociation of Labor from the Unions.

[White Indigene]

We are being overseen by a massive enemy leadership (Gang).

[Jovial Monk]

This is from Political Sword (http://www.thepoliticalsword.com) writing about (demolishing!) an article by Janet Albrechtson in the Oz. You can read the article for yourself, but the bit I want to concentrate on is this at the end of the article:

But the responses quoted may point to at least one reason she wrote this piece, namely to give those who are anti-Rudd a chance to express their venomous feelings about him, which they do with gusto. When one reads them there is a consistent theme – this man is no good, was never any good, will never be any good, the people of Australia were deluded, even deceived when they voted him and his party in. Among many of the comments one can detect anger, great and persisting anger, that the Coalition and Howard were rejected and Labor elected. It may never subside.

(http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2 ... 28099.aspx)

I think too that there is a desperation there driving the bile! Somehow they see how hugely popular Labor is and perhaps sense that the Lieberals are on the slide to oblivion. I point to to the dogs that shit in the sandpit (for some weird fucking reason they are being allowed to!) and their language. Smells of the vitriol that comes from desperation to me!