Just about one of the most balanced and insightful comments I have seen on this seemingly hopeless mess.JW Frogen Popping wrote:I understand what he is trying to do, re-orient US rhetoric so that he will have more influence with the Palestinians and more importantly the Arab world in general but I am not sure how these can work.
There are two problems to my mind. First Hamas, I think this policy would be effective with Fatah, but Fatah is a fading power, Hamas is growing and their ideology is such that it makes it almost impossible for a secular Western state to have any real influence on them, let alone Israel make concessions to them. I think Sharon played a remarkable move when he left Gaza, with no pre-conditions, no demands. He set up a trap I think he knew Hamas would take, that if he left and Hamas took control there they would use it as a base of attack, thereby giving the Israeli right the perfect argument that they can not really withdrawal from the place they really want, the West Bank.
Still, the continuation of settlements in the West Bank I think endangers Israel’s security in the long term, it makes it more and more difficult for the US to support Israel or to get accommodation from other Sunni Arab states sick of the entire thing.
Ironically, the growing Iranian threat may be the one thing that allows Israel to gobble up more and more of the West Bank, Hamas is in bed with Iran and the US may say we need Israel now more than ever to counter the Iranian threat, even the Sunni Arab states are capable of saying we do not want to back the Palestinians if it means we loose protection from the Iranians.
But his is all just my speculation, anyone who thinks they are sure about how this part of the world will go is deluding themselves.
*back later*
(*) from here: http://ozpolitic.com/polanimal/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=1954