McCain '08

[Mattus]

So I've been thinking about it, and I think McCain will win. I know Obama has 4 to 5 points over him in the polls, but it's an electoral college system and here's how I see it going down.

Red states:
Idaho
Montana
Nevada
Alaska
Utah
Wyoming
Arizona
Colorado (*)
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Tennessee
Kentucky
Indiana
Ohio
West Virginia
Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
(McCain 274 electoral votes = enough to win).

Blue States:
Washington
Oregon
California
New Mexico
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Pennsylvania
District of Columbia
Maryland
Delaware
New Jersey
New York
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Vermont
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Maine
Hawaii

(Obama 264 votes).


* I'm not sure about Collorado. If it goes blue then the election is Obama's... but it's been red since Clinton's first term and McCain plays big there.



I'm sure we'll all come back to this thread in a month and ridicule my guesswork.. but hey at least it gives us something to talk about.

P.S. In a very similar analogy, I'm rooting for the Hawks even though I know the Cats are going to stomp them.

[White Indigene]

It used to be the reliable case (at least for a period), that the favourite would never win the Melbourne Cup.

As for the fotty, Im sure the Cats will gouge the eys out of the hawks. One of the best things about the VFL -oooops AFL-, is that the game often isnt won until the last kick of the ball, so that the players have been racing about the feild to a point of exhaustion with out gain on the opponent, until the last moment, when someone magically gets the last point or goal of the day. Thats the best part of the endevour I reckon, and when I see one of those games, I am usually suitably impressed.

The Eagles were different when they were at their peak. They would bash out a lead in the first, play lightly for two, and in the last quater flogg down the opponent with energy to spare at the end of the game. Too predictable.

I dont know about the US because I havent been looking. If I was asked I would say it would be my choice for the younger more energetic man. But the matter is more complex than that, and perhaps they will form a joint government or something. One things for sure, they will will get a lot more voters in this time, and if nothing else, this will serve to legitamise the next boss of America, and the democratic position of the US.

[JW Frogen]

Interesting and quite possible, I would have most of the states in the same columns right now. In particular if the debates go badly for Obama, there is an international foreign crisis, and the financial crises abates somewhat.

Though the overall polls have been trending toward Obama since the economic crises really started to bite.


Colorado has been a red state but is polling blue in the polls I have seen, still you are right Mac knows he has to win it and so is putting a lot of effort there. Obama leads in the last poll TIME/CNN pollI saw 51% to 45% margin. But Mac had a 48% to 46% lead just two weeks ago.

Florida was trending toward Mac in the last poll I saw but Obama has opened up far more offices to organize grass roots Dem turn out than Mac and they still believe they can take it.

Still, it is a very fluid race in some of the most dramatic economic and foreign policy times we have seen so many things can tip the swing states in the other direction.

[Guest]

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,22606,24 ... 62,00.html

[JW Frogen]

I would not say Palin has crowned herself with rhetorical glory in interviews, still what ‘honeymoon’, the press has been gunning for her in a way they never have ego Joe, a man who has said he disagrees with Obama’s advertising, that Clinton would be a better VP pick than him and who has made several errors of fact despite being in the Senate for so long.

And some of this attack reveals more about the ignorance of the press than it does Palin, for instance the famous Gibson question “do you agree with the Bush doctrine?”

She said what aspect and Gibson acted like a clown, rolling his eyes. Then he said pre-emption. Only one problem here for Krusty-Gibson, the Bush doctrine actually has three aspects.

The statement that when international treaties conflict with US or democratic interests the US will act unilaterally, announced before Sept 11th.

The pre-emption of threat statement announced before the Iraqi war. (Which the NYT and Glibby Gibson foolishly believe IS the entire doctrine.)

And most importantly of all the democratization agenda, announce on various occasions after Sept 11th and highlighted in the national security statement of Bush and his second inaugural address.

Or her statement about having to go to war with Russia, she said that in context of NATO, that if Georgia was in NATO would the US have to go to war against Russia, her answer is correct, NATO members are required to come to each other’s defense, that is the purpose of NATO. That the interviewer does not know this says more about them than Palin.


Or Iraq, she is more correct than the narrative of despair the media portrayed in Iraq, the surge has been a success, Al Qeada is all but defeated there (limited to random attacks) and it appears the Iraqi government will remain both democratic and united, stable enough to allow significant troop withdrawals.

That is victory. Perhaps why the media has lost interest, they do not like to report Western success.

Still, her inability to both answer and chide what is some pretty ignorant reporting does reveal a lack of political steel.

[Mattus]

You're right that Joe has got away with a lot of dumb shit simply because the press is obsessed with Palin and her daughter. But there was a honeymoon during the convention. It played well, very well, and the press loved it - the whole hockey mom vs vladimir putin thing was cute. But it's experiencing blowback now.

[JW Frogen]

You're right that Joe has got away with a lot of dumb shit simply because the press is obsessed with Palin and her daughter. But there was a honeymoon during the convention. It played well, very well, and the press loved it - the whole hockey mom vs vladimir putin thing was cute. But it's experiencing blowback now.

I would like to experience some Palin blowback. Oh I say!

I actually like Ego Joe.

I think he must be a closet drinker he is so honest.

I can't wait until the Vice Presidential debate when he confesses his love of midget porn.

[Mattus]

Seeing as how Florida is full of old people who retirement savings are in abject disarray as a result of the last week's activities (Wachovia is the next giant to fall(, I wonder if Florida might lean toward Obama now?

[Rainbow Moonlight]

I think the support package not passing will work against McCain big time.

[JW Frogen]

Seeing as how Florida is full of old people who retirement savings are in abject disarray as a result of the last week's activities (Wachovia is the next giant to fall(, I wonder if Florida might lean toward Obama now?

Yes, I have not seen any recent polls but I would be shocked if Obama is not gaining ground in Florida big time.

Indeed I think Ele is right, this crises hurts Mac everywhere.

One argument Mac had is do you want one party controlling the entire government, with this kind of financial gridlock during a huge crises many people now might be inclined to say yes we need action so put Obama in with a Congress that will work with him.