US Presidential race

[AiA in Atlanta]

A Trump win in 2016 would guarantee an FDR-style lefty being elected in 2020 and staying there for two terms. A Trump presidency would embarrass the USA and ruin the Republicans. Still, I think Trump is more reasonable and moderate than he is given credit for by the public.

[DrMattus]

A Trump win in 2016 would guarantee an FDR-style lefty being elected in 2020 and staying there for two terms. A Trump presidency would embarrass the USA and ruin the Republicans. Still, I think Trump is more reasonable and moderate than he is given credit for by the public.

Trump knows the only way to win GOP primaries is to be at the extreme right. He has no voting record to defend and can position himself wherever he wants. So he has positioned himself at the extreme right.

It's a good strategy, when you understand how GOP primaries work. Right now there are two main factions in the GOP. The right-wing and the moderates. Bush, Christie, Fiorina, Graham, Huckabee, Pataki, Perry, Rubio and Kasich are all moderates and so, until now, have been splitting the moderate votes (also some going to Paul, who's not moderate but is was baiting the libertarian voters who would otherwise back a moderate). But to be clear, the moderate candidates and the right-wing candidates are not competing for the same votes at this stage.

Most GOP primaries (except for a few very specific caucuses) are not prefential. So splitting the moderate conservative vote 10 ways is bad. Now that so many moderates have dropped out, you will see Rubio and Kasich surge. But the moderate faction really needs to choose just one of them, and they need to do it now.

There's less to chose from on the right of the party. With only Cruz and Carson to compete with for right wing votes, Trump was wise to align himself here. It splits the voter base 3 ways instead of 10.

So to be clear; Rubio and Trump are not competing for the same votes as they are representing different factions of the party. Rubio is competing with Kasich. Trump is competing with Cruz. It is only when each faction is down to 1 nominee that the real primaries will begin. If it gets down to just Trump and Cruz, you may see Trump move to the left in order to take the moderate votes.

Trump also knows the way to win presidential elections is to be a moderate conservative. If he wins the party nomination he will pivot to the left. I mean he used to be a democrat, right? He was a registered democrat from 2001 to 2009. He donated money to John Kerry and Ted fucking Kennedy.


Don: Is that a stain on your dress Melenia?



But I will be surprised if he's the nominee. He's still working hard to fend off Cruz (who is far more genuinely socially conservative than Trump), meanwhile the moderates are falling into step behind Rubio.

On the democratic side, IQ is right that Hillary will obviously win. There's a lot of noise about Bernie Sanders because he won NH, but again you have to understand how the democratic primaries work. Some primaries are open to anyone. That is, you don't necessarily have to be a democrat to vote in the democratic primary. That's the case in NH* and, even though Bernie won that primary, he didn't win the registered democrat vote. The democrats are fully behind Hillary. This is not surprising, as Hillary has been a democrat forever, and he husband is democratic royalty. Bernie only joined the party in 2015. Most of the rest of the primaries are closed (i.e. only registered democrats can vote). He has no chance of winning. None. Which is a shame, because I'm one of IQ's Marxist numpties who supports affordable (not free) education and would vote for him in a second. But he won't win.

But that's okay. Bernie never intended to win the nomination. His only job is to influence the dialogue and drag Hillary kicking and screaming to the left. Which he has already achieved.



* The democratic primary is open to non-registered or unaffiliated voters. But registered republicans can't vote in the democratic primary.

[Neferti]

I presume that Trump beat Sanders?

I did explain what I meant later in the thread, didn't I? .......

[Super Nova]

Trump also knows the way to win presidential elections is to be a moderate conservative. If he wins the party nomination he will pivot to the left.

Excellent, this is what I have been saying in conversations. Trump will moderate and soften his hardline right views to make himself more appealing to the general population and will tone down some of his rhetoric to appear more Presidential.

It is very hard for people outside the US to understand how the game is played in the US. People are shocked that someone like Trump could even be considered however I too am a little tied of professional politicians running the world and there is a need for new blood from people who have real life experiences.

[DrMattus]

Tonight is the republican Nevada caucus. It's unbinding and essentially a series of straw polls, but preferential in that supporters of non-viable candidates are able to realign with a more popular candidate and still make their vote count.

These polls tend to last all day, on a workday. So that rules out anyone who's gainfully employed. This leaves the decision to a bunch of unemployable nutbags, geriatrics and Mormons.With no Romney in the race, I would expect the Mormon's won't even turn out. The geriatrics never vote anyway. And so Trump should have no problem taking this one on the back of the nutbag vote alone.

[Neferti]

All I can say is, thankfully, Australia's parliamentary system doesn't need such crap for an ENTIRE YEAR to choose a contender on each "side" and millions of money spent. Plus the Hoopla.

... we definitely do NOT need to go down the track of the Yanks and a likewise Republic!

I wonder who Sir Waffle wants as the next Prez? I presume he thinks he is a bit of a ladies man so I presume Hillary. His age group too. Bill might be interested in a "threesome" ....

[IQS.RLOW]

I doubt Bill has been anywhere near a bedroom with Beastillary in it for many many years. Many think that she has long preferred the fish taco.

[AiA in Atlanta]

Thanks for the analysis DrMattus.

That Evangelical Christians are supporting Trump is an indication of just how inauthentic their "faith" is. I have suspected for a while that large swathes of American Protestantism are nothing more than an extension of the GOP. Their support of Trump confirms that.

[IQS.RLOW]

That Evangelical Christians are supporting Trump is unbelievable.

That they aren't supporting democrats is more believable.
A far different sort of idiot supports democrats?

[AiA in Atlanta]

There is more and more talk of the GOP having a "brokered convention." What that means is that a group of men, in secret, decide who the Republican nominee will be. So much for democracy