nbn takeup failure

[Jovial Monk]

Nice story about how Turnbull is spreading misinformation about:

Well, that about wraps it up for the NBN

Stop looking at South Korea, says Turnbull
By Richard Chirgwin • Get more from this author

Posted in Telecoms, 16th June 2011 22:44 GMT
Free whitepaper – EMC Unisphere for VNXe
The opposition spokesperson for communications in Australia, Malcolm Turnbull, has delivered a damning blow to the government’s plans for a National Broadband Network (NBN), citing international data to show declining demand for services at 100 Mbps.

Since the NBN’s business plan assumes a fairly strong takeup of 100 Mbps services, a lack of demand at that speed pots the network’s underlying assumptions into the corner pocket.

In this article, Turnbull points out a worrying datum: the number of subscribers to 100 Mbps services in South Korea is actually falling, he writes. Between January 2010 and April 2011, carrier KT shed about tens of thousands of subscribers for its top speed service.

It’s a damning observation: people abandoning the kind of cheap 100 Mbps service that’s the envy of netizens around the world. If the poster-child of world fibre broadband can’t hold customers to the top speeds, what hope for the rest of the world?

And, of course, since South Korea has moved earliest and fastest on rolling out high-speed networks to its citizens, a take-up failure would be the sort of news that should send shivers down telco and policy-makers’ spines all over the world. If around $30 per month isn’t an attractive price for fast broadband, how in the world would Australians be persuaded to shell out $50 per month of our hard-earned for the same thing?

(It would be both tangential and unfair to point out that first, Australians pay over-the-odds for everything under the sun except coal; and second, that our $30 DSL broadband services sit on top of a copper line for which you have to pay either Telstra or your naked DSL provider).

Yep, data like that is a real problem.

Because it’s incomplete – and its incompleteness is its downfall. Because I’m a data geek – in another orbit, I’m an analyst specializing in telecoms – something didn’t ring true, so I decided to go looking.

South Korea doesn’t just have one fixed broadband carrier; it has three. KT, whose data Turnbull cites, along with LG U+ and SK Broadband. LG U+ offers 100 Mbps both on its hybrid fibre-coax (HFC) network and under the “optical LAN” brand, while SK Broadband identifies its services as “Fibre LAN” in its financial reports.

You can tell what’s coming, can’t you? The 100 Mbps market in South Korea isn’t declining: it’s booming. A country that also offers a fair number of wireless broadband services is still adding new fast fixed broadband users at an impressive rate.

Over the January 2010 to March / April 2011 (there are inconsistencies in the reporting dates for the three carriers), net adds for 100 Mbps services totaled nearly 850,000 new customers.[My emphasis.] LG U+ added 500,000 subscribers (Excel fact sheet here), while SK Broadband connected 420,000 new subs (here). If this information is correct, the market didn’t shrink or even flatten – overall, it grew by nearly 14 percent, with KT the underperformer of the industry, losing its customers to its competitors.

How would Turnbull – who is both intelligent and thorough – be misled?

I suspect it arises from one assumption: incumbency equals domination. It’s true in most markets, but in the high-speed fibre broadband market in South Korea, it’s not. KT is the incumbent, but in this particular segment, it’s the minnow. I can only assume that either industry structure, regulation, or aggressive competition have given South Korea a market that’s different to what you would expect.

http://data.skbroadband.com/app/www_han ... pdf&seq=49

Now good old DeepshiT who is not above telling a lie like the sea is not above the sky has been telling us South Koreans have been deserting their fast fixed broadband for wireless. Silly old DeepshiT the liar. You can usually tell when he is telling a lie—his lips are moving! But people, of course, love fast broadband. Wireless bb, despite the growth in number of connections, hardly increased the amount of data moved while wired broadband is carrying exponentially more—look above and you will find the abs stats confirming that. Those stats exclude naked ADSL services—so the staggering amount of data moved by fixed boradband is understated as are the number of fixed wired connections.

So now you know the truth about fast bb.


Ummmmm interesting! Turnbull’s crap research was in an article on the Business Spectator site. When you try and link to it (I included the link in above Register article) you now (i.e. after the Register article exposing the flaws in Turnbull’s crap) you get a message saying BS site is too busy to open that article! Guess they don’t like publishing lies!

the Korean data is in their IR Factsheet No 5. (May, 2011), http://www.kt.com/eng/ir/iractivities_03.jsp

Link to where most recent ABS data is: http://www.polanimal.com.au/viewtopic.p ... ABS#p34343

[Jovial Monk]

YES! At long last:

ASX confirms $11b Telstra network deal

The deal will let the NBN use Telstra's existing network and infrastructure (AAP: NBNCO, file photo)

AUDIO: Malcolm Turnbull discusses the rollout of the Govt's NBN plans - extended interview (AM)
RELATED STORY: NBN in $11b network deal with Telstra
The Australian Stock Exchange has confirmed Telstra and NBN Co have signed an $11 billion agreement to allow the new high-speed broadband network to use Telstra's existing network and infrastructure.

In a statement, the ASX says the agreement will be for 35 to 40 years and will mean Telstra hands over all its broadband services to the NBN over the 10 years it will take for the new network to be completed.

Telstra will recommend to its shareholders that the deal be accepted.

The ASX says Telstra and NBN Co have agreed to product features and pricing for voice and data services - but these are yet to be released.

As part of the deal, Telstra has promised to spend $2 billion on upgrading infrastructure and migrating customers to the NBN.

Telstra's CEO, David Thodey, said the agreement ended the uncertainty surrounding Telstra's possible association with NBN Co and would allow his company to focus on customer service.

The agreement remains subject to approval by the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission as well as the shareholder approval which will go to a vote on October 18.

Telstra chairman Catherine Livingstone described the two-year negotiations as "complex", but said the decision to participate was made because Telstra could recover more value for the business "given the loss of value after NBN policy announcements".

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011 ... 251290.htm

Let us hope that now even the fucking Coalition will get behind the NBN! It is such a vital, exciting project, it will be rolled out and a wave of innovation, new services etc etc just as the world is sinking into a new Long (i.e. “Great”) Depression. This time we will survive the Depression better than other countries precisely because of the NBN!

The NBN also makes possible new openness of government, with government information available to be mined by some of the new applications. How about accurate, live information on bus and train/tram arrivals and departures—know whether they are running late or not, delivered to PC or mobile phone or electronics at the bus/train etc stops. ABS data can be retrieved and mixed or “mashed up” with other data. While final delivery of this can be over wireless as well as over the NBN it is the NBN makes it possible. For mobile bb freaks (and boy must you be living miserable lives) the NBN will improve your bb directly and indirectly.

If the government and NBN Co now start some good advertising PR then today will be the low point in govt fortunes and it will improve its standing from today on!

[Jovial Monk]

Dept broadband media release:

Government and Telstra agree on package of consumer measures

The Gillard Government and Telstra today reached an agreement that will ensure basic universal telecommunication service standards during and after the roll out of the National Broadband Network – a critical assurance for consumers in the rollout of the NBN.

The important public safeguard is part of a package of measures agreed between the Government and Telstra that included an agreement to provide assistance to retrain Telstra’s workforce to deploy the NBN.

The package also included the creation of a new government entity, the Telecommunications Universal Service Management Agency (TUSMA) that will administer the universal service obligation (USO) and other public interest services.

These measures were announced in conjunction with Definitive Agreements between Telstra and NBN Co that will see super fast broadband delivered sooner to Australians with less disruption and less cost.

The universal service arrangements will commence on 1 July, 2012.The TUSMA will ensure:

all Australians have reasonable access to a standard telephone service (the Universal Service Obligation for voice telephony services);

payphones are reasonably accessible to all Australians (the Universal Service Obligation for payphones);

the ongoing delivery of the Emergency Call Service by Telstra (calls to Triple Zero '000' and '112');

the ongoing delivery of the National Relay Service;

that appropriate safety net arrangements are in place that will assist the migration of voice-only customers to an NBN fibre service as Telstra’s copper customer access network is decommissioned; and

technological solutions will be developed as necessary to support continuity of public interest services (i.e. public alarm systems and traffic lights).

These measures are vital to ensure continuity of basic services to consumers throughout Australia given the significant changes that will occur to the structure of the telecommunications industry from the rollout of the NBN, including the progressive decommissioning of Telstra’s copper customer access network.

http://www.minister.dbcde.gov.au/media/ ... s/2011/204

This is an undoubted good thing to happen. I am proud to be a citizen of a country where the government is enlightened enough to not just roll out a FTTH network but is also positively encouraging eHealth, education initiatives, mashups of govt data—the stuff that needs to be done to ensure full advantage is taken of the NBN and allows the NBN to lift our standing in world rankings (and not just of broadband) and improve our economic competitiveness!

On the other side of the political divide there really is nothing on offer, just negativity. 18 bb policies under Howard but nothing actually done. since the NBN Mk II was announced just opposition for oppositions sake, with first wireless then FTTN offered up as bb policies 19 & 20! Neither will work: not enough spectrum for wireless and the copper is in way too poor a shape for FTTN—maybe if Telstra had started this immediately on privatisation but Howard stopped that—and, inevitably, Turnbull will have to accept the NBN and just niggle and criticise at the edges. Oh well, if that floats his boat. . .

Local govt, particularly in the regions has been the surprise champion of the NBN, even offering to have fibre pulled to where it wasn’t going to be pulled and paying half the cost. I should have anticipated that, I have after all been blabbing on how the NBN will eliminate at least partly the dreadful isolation of the bush, the eHealth and eEducation benefits to those in the regions etc. And all this easily affordable, amounting to $3.6Bn a year in a $300Bn federal budget! The government in this years Budget eliminated $22Bn in middleclass welfare crap, that is 2/3 of an NBN each and every year!

Hmmm yesterday evening or maybe Tue evening a commercial TV channel (IIRC, or the ABC, doesn’t matter) showed how eHealth would work with blood pressure, blood sugar, temperature, an ECG etc all taken just by the patient in their own home using a simple-to-use gadget and a blood pressure cuff while consulting with their doctor using high-res video. Lots of people scoff about diagnosis being done remotely but that is not what eHealth is about—it is about freeing up hospital beds, allowing the frail and elderly to remain in their own home longer, etc. Just these uses could pay for the NBN in short order with the baby boomers starting to retire this year! Come to think of it that could have been an ad for the NBN.

[Jovial Monk]

Telstra’s annoucement of the deal:

Telstra signs NBN Definitive Agreements
Media Release 23 June 2011

Telstra has today signed Definitive Agreements with NBN Co and the Commonwealth for its participation in the rollout of the National Broadband Network (NBN).

The agreements remain subject to the satisfaction of a number of conditions, including the critical step of ACCC acceptance of Telstra’s structural separation undertaking and approval of its migration plan.

Telstra Chairman Catherine Livingstone said the Definitive Agreements needed the approval of a majority of Telstra shareholders with the vote currently scheduled for the company’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) to be held in Sydney on 18 October 2011.

“The signing of these agreements is another important step following two years of complex negotiations between Telstra, NBN Co and the Government,” Ms Livingstone said today.

“The Government’s commitment to the NBN and other related policy changes meant that the Telstra Board had to decide whether the company should participate in the NBN rollout or pursue other options. The decision to participate was made on the basis that the proposed transaction is expected to provide us with the ability to recover more value for the business than the available alternatives, given the loss of value after the NBN policy announcements.

“After rigorously assessing the options before it, including the regulatory and commercial implications of each, the Telstra Board expects to recommend that shareholders approve a proposal to participate in the NBN rollout, subject to the conditions precedent being satisfied.”

Telstra is preparing an Explanatory Memorandum (EM) which will outline the basis for the Board’s recommendation to shareholders.

http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/ ... ents-2.xml

[Jovial Monk]

Read a lot more about the NBN here:

http://www.polanimal.com.au/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1130

Good authoritative sources.

[Jovial Monk]

Channel 7 news just did a story on the Willunga NBN being switched on. Good to see! Showcased two small business people incl a software developer who can now interview potential and existing customers via video phone call. Uploads of projects to his clients now fly along! This guy MOVED to Willunga to take advantage of the NBN. September the rest of Willunag will have their fibre lit.

Exciting stuff!

[Jovial Monk]

Just imagine this over the NBN:

AARNet tests 40 Gbps network

Deploys first phase of 100 Gbps backbone.

Research network operator AARNet has enabled 40 Gbps connectivity along 1,300 kilometres of its fibre network in its first step towards terabit connectivity.

The trial service connected three CSIRO radioastronomy facilities in New South Wales: the Parkes Radio Telescope; Narrabri Observatory near Tamworth; and its radioastronomy headquarters in Marsfield, Sydney.

The upgrade quadrupled the maximum speed currently available via the operator’s AARNet3 network, which offered speeds of between one and 10 Gbps.

To reach 40 Gbps, AARNet installed four new 40/100 Gbps coherent detection transponders from Cisco onto its backbone. Two were installed in Sydney, one in Parkes and one in Narrabri.

Traffic was injected at Sydney, sent to Parkes and Narrabri, and back, with AARNet monitoring round trip time and packet loss statistics to verify that the network was performing to specification.

Some 2,400 terabytes of data was delivered over three days of continuous operation on the trial network.

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/261904,aa ... twork.aspx

[Jovial Monk]

Fucking ABC, more biased than the Murdoch rags, esp the so-called Online Investigation Unit:

NBN disparity threatens to widen the gap

Ms Chellew says expected upload speeds of one megabit per second in remote areas will make the real-time streaming needed for education delivery impossible.

Australians in many remote communities will miss out on the intended health and education benefits of the National Broadband Network (NBN) because of slow upload speeds and low take-up rates, according to communications experts and a new study.

Expected NBN upload speeds of one megabit per second in remote areas will make the real-time streaming needed for electronic health and education delivery impossible, Indigenous Remote Communications Association manager Linda Chellew says.

"Most services requiring real-time streaming applications won't work with a slow upload,'' Ms Chellew said.

"Things like video conferencing, e-health services, education where there is two-way communications between an off-site lecturer and classroom in remote areas won't be possible... it's very frustrating."

Ms Chellow says disparities in the way the NBN will be rolled out could actually widen the gap between remote Indigenous communities and the broader community.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011 ... 267722.htm

Actually, the trials of the interim NBN satellite service has impressed the shit out of those taking part in the trial, and the actual NBN satellites will provide even better service. So none of the above is true. I know that, the ABC should know that.

Added to that, lots of rural and regional councils are arranging to pay the cost of bringing the NBN to their areas.

[The Artist formerly known as Sappho]

I'm still going to opt out of the NBN and move to wireless broadband. I anticipate that wireless network will be more advanced by then and yet less in demand because most will move to the NBN, so my Internet speeds should be faster as a result. Already, I have no problems with wireless broadband in my area, so it should only improve.

I think the key to all of this is to move to the system which is less in demand because that is where you will have the fastest speeds.

Of course I could be wrong, but it is a reasonable hypothesis to test.

[Rainbow Moonlight]

Wireless is supposedly easier to hack