Are we heading for war with China?

[brian ross]

Without the US presence we would be history in no time at all. No thanks!

The US protected it 'cause it suited them to do so.

And it suited us more!

People like you are paranoid, Black Orchid.

[brian ross]

Without the US presence we would be history in no time at all. No thanks!

Would we? The Japanese couldn't even agree on attacking Australia directly. The Imperial Japanese Navy voted in favour. The Imperial Japanese Army was unsure that the IJN could protect such an expedition, let alone supply it. The Army was unsure whether they had the forces to undertake such a task - they were overcommitted in China. Then, we were quite capable of defending ourselves. The 2nd AIF had returned from the Middle East. They were the most experienced and well equipped force in the region. The Japanese were not very well trained in open, manoeuvre warfare. The AIF were masters. Overall, we were quite able to defend ourselves, even if the politicians in Canberra were panicked. The US protected it 'cause it suited them to do so.

You're comparing Japan 80 years ago to China today. Do you realize how much smaller the Earth is now?

China is even less of a threat to Australia than Japan was 90 years ago. China lacks the material means to represent a threat. They are four thousand kilometres from our northern coast. They then have to travel a further two thousand kilometres to reach where the majority of our population and our industry is. China has ICBMs however they are a small number and they wouldn't waste them on us while you yanks are aiming more than two thousand of your own at them.

[Black Orchid]

Without the US presence we would be history in no time at all. No thanks!

The US protected it 'cause it suited them to do so.

And it suited us more!

People like you are paranoid, Black Orchid.

I'm not as old as you and wasn't alive during WW2 so I'm hardly paranoid

[Texan]

Without the US presence we would be history in no time at all. No thanks!

Would we? The Japanese couldn't even agree on attacking Australia directly. The Imperial Japanese Navy voted in favour. The Imperial Japanese Army was unsure that the IJN could protect such an expedition, let alone supply it. The Army was unsure whether they had the forces to undertake such a task - they were overcommitted in China. Then, we were quite capable of defending ourselves. The 2nd AIF had returned from the Middle East. They were the most experienced and well equipped force in the region. The Japanese were not very well trained in open, manoeuvre warfare. The AIF were masters. Overall, we were quite able to defend ourselves, even if the politicians in Canberra were panicked. The US protected it 'cause it suited them to do so.

You're comparing Japan 80 years ago to China today. Do you realize how much smaller the Earth is now?

China is even less of a threat to Australia than Japan was 90 years ago. China lacks the material means to represent a threat. They are four thousand kilometres from our northern coast. They then have to travel a further two thousand kilometres to reach where the majority of our population and our industry is. China has ICBMs however they are a small number and they wouldn't waste them on us while you yanks are aiming more than two thousand of your own at them.

Germany and Japan thought America wasn't a material threat in 1941. We ramped up our industry in a hurry. China has the same ability with lots of industry and cheap labor. They don't typically show innovation and creativity, but they are very good at stealing technology. They could have a formidable navy within a few years. Just their sheer numbers means they can field an army. Don't underestimate them and feel free to call me an alarmist or paranoid, but I'm just being a realist and considering preparing for the worst. It's time to boycott Chinese products. You also have to consider how much resistance the Chinese would meet if they ever got to your shores. Rocks, spears, knives, and boomerangs will only get you so far. I know you have a modern military, but it's not big enough to handle China without help. I'm not trying to look down my nose at Australia, but we all know that our alliances are only as good as the men we have in charge and that changes every 4 years. Just 8 years ago, 0bama was telling Putin to wait until after the elections so he could bend us over for Russia and bowing to every King in the Middle East. How tough do you think Biden would be against China? How many millions does he have pouring in from them for his potential cooperation if elected?

[northofnorth]

No. I do not believe we are heading for a hot war with China... A cold war? Definitely... I think we're in a cold war with the CCP already...

If the CCP had the confidence for a hot war, they would have proved it with Hong Kong, let alone invade Taiwan. Instead they have resorted to police brutality and paying Chinese triad gangs to smash in the skulls of students, murder some of them and dump their bodies at sea.

And If the CCP collapsed this 'China' we speak of would fragment almost immediately in the aftermath, as the USSR did in the 90's.
Can't really see Hong Kong or Tibet wanting to stay in a Chinese 'Commonwealth', can anyone? (and lets not speak of the western provinces).

The CCP is a paranoid and extremely insecure organisation... A Frankensteinian amalgam of Stalinism and National Socialism. Even the Dalai Lama's touring out of India sends the CCP into ranting, raving and threatening countries that receive him.

What evokes this insecurity and paranoia? Not external forces, but hair-trigger internal forces that would rip China apart at any indication that the CCP is perceived as weak...

However, a significant caveat that may limit the west's appetite for a China that fragments fast is the fact that its western provinces are Muslim... Not sure if the world needs more Islamic terrorists baying for ethnic Chinese blood for what's been done to them.

[Bobby]

I watched 60 Minutes last night.
They interviewed a prominent Chinese Professor - a CCP Govt. spokesman.

It didn't really give any practical steps around an
independent enquiry into the virus escaping China
and where it came from.
It could be that China will allow an enquiry
but on their terms - I still don't know?

No where did it say that - China welcomes an enquiry.

[brian ross]

Without the US presence we would be history in no time at all. No thanks!

Would we? The Japanese couldn't even agree on attacking Australia directly. The Imperial Japanese Navy voted in favour. The Imperial Japanese Army was unsure that the IJN could protect such an expedition, let alone supply it. The Army was unsure whether they had the forces to undertake such a task - they were overcommitted in China. Then, we were quite capable of defending ourselves. The 2nd AIF had returned from the Middle East. They were the most experienced and well equipped force in the region. The Japanese were not very well trained in open, manoeuvre warfare. The AIF were masters. Overall, we were quite able to defend ourselves, even if the politicians in Canberra were panicked. The US protected it 'cause it suited them to do so.

You're comparing Japan 80 years ago to China today. Do you realize how much smaller the Earth is now?

China is even less of a threat to Australia than Japan was 90 years ago. China lacks the material means to represent a threat. They are four thousand kilometres from our northern coast. They then have to travel a further two thousand kilometres to reach where the majority of our population and our industry is. China has ICBMs however they are a small number and they wouldn't waste them on us while you yanks are aiming more than two thousand of your own at them.

Germany and Japan thought America wasn't a material threat in 1941. We ramped up our industry in a hurry. China has the same ability with lots of industry and cheap labor. They don't typically show innovation and creativity, but they are very good at stealing technology. They could have a formidable navy within a few years. Just their sheer numbers means they can field an army. Don't underestimate them and feel free to call me an alarmist or paranoid, but I'm just being a realist and considering preparing for the worst. It's time to boycott Chinese products. You also have to consider how much resistance the Chinese would meet if they ever got to your shores. Rocks, spears, knives, and boomerangs will only get you so far. I know you have a modern military, but it's not big enough to handle China without help. I'm not trying to look down my nose at Australia, but we all know that our alliances are only as good as the men we have in charge and that changes every 4 years. Just 8 years ago, 0bama was telling Putin to wait until after the elections so he could bend us over for Russia and bowing to every King in the Middle East. How tough do you think Biden would be against China? How many millions does he have pouring in from them for his potential cooperation if elected?

China lacks (at the present moment and into the foreseeable future) the ability to threaten Australia. As I have related we are long way from Chinese shores. They lack experience mounting long range missions as far as Australia. Indeed, a few years ago, it was notable that they sent three frigates as far as us, with a support ship. No doubt they learnt a lot. However, was it enough?

The Chinese have the ability to perhaps send a brigade at most to Australia's northern shores. Remote from them and even remote from the SE corner of our continent. There isn't much there except a few mines and some small ports. They might capture those but not before they are demolished. It would take them a decade or more to develop them without interference. We would spend most of time making life difficult for them. Our submarines would present a particular difficulty for them as they lack much real life experience of ASW work. Then there is our small but still substantial surface fleet and our medium sized air force. I am not suggesting we would have it all our own way but neither would they. Remember, we have to play a long game just as they do. Making a lodgement is one thing, sustaining it another thing altogether. Their logistics tail stretches back to China, ours only to the southern half of the continent.

We, like your country, are not a soft nut, easy to crack. We have substantial distances to protect us. Then we have the intervening nations between us and China. Somehow I doubt they would stand by and let a substantial naval force sail serenely through their waters. The Indonesians have long had an enmity towards the Chinese. The Philipines ditto. Malaysia ditto. A coalition built around our forces with their not insubstantial forces would present real difficulties for the PRC if they chose to attack us.

We don't rely on spears, boomerangs or rocks to defend us. We have a largish military force. It could be larger, I'm the first to admit but it is adequate as a deterrent to most aggressors. We have indigenous Australians who are trained to fight a guerrilla war almost by instinct enlisted in NorForce and the N.W. Pilbar Regiment. We have the SASR who are trained to also act as a long range intelligence force and a guerrilla force. Then we have the Commando Regiment. These represent a real problem to a force which is not used to conditions in the Top End. Coping with the climate would be only the first of their problems. Then there are the wildlife - a not insubstantial problem as many tourists discover. Finally you have the problems of distance with insubstantial infrastructure. All represent difficulties to an invader. We are used to them, they are not.

[Black Orchid]

[Texan]

No. I do not believe we are heading for a hot war with China... A cold war? Definitely... I think we're in a cold war with the CCP already...

If the CCP had the confidence for a hot war, they would have proved it with Hong Kong, let alone invade Taiwan. Instead they have resorted to police brutality and paying Chinese triad gangs to smash in the skulls of students, murder some of them and dump their bodies at sea.

And If the CCP collapsed this 'China' we speak of would fragment almost immediately in the aftermath, as the USSR did in the 90's.
Can't really see Hong Kong or Tibet wanting to stay in a Chinese 'Commonwealth', can anyone? (and lets not speak of the western provinces).

The CCP is a paranoid and extremely insecure organisation... A Frankensteinian amalgam of Stalinism and National Socialism. Even the Dalai Lama's touring out of India sends the CCP into ranting, raving and threatening countries that receive him.

What evokes this insecurity and paranoia? Not external forces, but hair-trigger internal forces that would rip China apart at any indication that the CCP is perceived as weak...

However, a significant caveat that may limit the west's appetite for a China that fragments fast is the fact that its western provinces are Muslim... Not sure if the world needs more Islamic terrorists baying for ethnic Chinese blood for what's been done to them.

I like the way you think. Welcome aboard. How far North is northofnorth? I'm at about 32.15 degrees North Latitude. About 25-30 miles South of Dallas, TX. Or does northofnorth reference something else? Excuse the curiosity and ignore me if you wish on personal matters.

[Black Orchid]

Thanks Tex and, yes, welcome NoN.

BEIJING (Reuters) - An internal Chinese report warns that Beijing faces a rising wave of hostility in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak that could tip relations with the United States into confrontation, people familiar with the paper told Reuters.

The report, presented early last month by the Ministry of State Security to top Beijing leaders including President Xi Jinping, concluded that global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, the sources said.

As a result, Beijing faces a wave of anti-China sentiment led by the United States in the aftermath of the pandemic and needs to be prepared in a worst-case scenario for armed confrontation between the two global powers, according to people familiar with the report’s content, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter.

The report was drawn up by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a think tank affiliated with the Ministry of State Security, China’s top intelligence body.

Reuters has not seen the briefing paper, but it was described by people who had direct knowledge of its findings.

“I don’t have relevant information,” the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson’s office said in a statement responding to questions from Reuters on the report.

China’s Ministry of State Security has no public contact details and could not be reached for comment.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN22G19C

I think China would prefer to go to war than admit any wrongdoing. Like all totalitarian regimes their people are expendable.