What happens if China restricts rare earths supply ?

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Juliar
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What happens if China restricts rare earths supply ?

Post by Juliar » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:41 am

Smartphones and cancer drugs rely on Chinese rare earths. What happens if Beijing limits them?
By Alan Weedon Updated 14 Jun 2019, 12:21pm

Rare earths form the central building blocks of our modern world — they're used to manufacture smartphones, construct fighter jets and develop cancer treatments.

Key points:
Rare-earth minerals are actually abundant, but are difficult to refine and to duplicate
China is the world's most dominant producer of rare earths essential to tech devices
Beijing has threatened to restrict their production in retaliation over US tariffs


But now, China — the world's dominant producer of rare earths — is threatening to strangle global supplies in retaliation for tariffs imposed on imports into the United States amid its escalating trade war with President Donald Trump.
Last week, after President Xi Jinping visited a rare-earth mineral processing facility, China's National Development and Reform Commission — Beijing's guiding economic agency — quoted an unnamed official questioning whether the trade could be China's "counter-weapon" against the US.

Trump's trade showdown
Image

It's almost inconceivable that the immediate future of the global economy hangs on the erratic whims of Donald Trump, writes Ian Verrender.

"What I can tell you is that if anyone wants to use products made from China's rare earth to curb the development of China, then the people of China will not be happy," he said.

China was responsible for 70 per cent of global production last year, despite only holding 36 per cent of the world's total known reserves, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS)
But despite their ubiquity in our everyday lives and devices, not many of us know what rare earths are and why we rely on them so heavily — here we answer some questions:

What are rare earths and why are they important?
A total of 17 elements are classified as rare earths, all of which have metallic properties.
Despite the "rare" name they're actually found in abundance in deposits all across the earth's crust. One element, cerium, which is used to polish smartphone touchscreens, is 15,000 times more abundant than gold.
The elements are considered rare, however, because there are no credible artificial substitutes. In addition, supply of rare earths is vulnerable, as production is concentrated in a small handful of countries.

Image
PHOTO: A wide array of rare earth elements are needed to create contemporary phones. (ABC News: Jarrod Fankhauser)

Gavin Mudd, associate professor in chemical and environmental engineering at RMIT University, explained that 15 of the elements, known as lanthanides, make their way into most technological devices.
"Aside from smartphones, these metals are absolutely fundamental to things like permanent magnets that are used in wind turbines or the magnets in electric vehicles," Dr Mudd said.

He said some other crucial elements in the group included dysprosium, which has the one of the world's strongest magnetic strengths and is used in lasers and computer hard drives, as well as samarium, a metal used in cancer radiation therapies.
Another element, neodymium, straddles the worlds of consumers and the US military — in smartphones, it's used to create the tiny, but powerful, magnets that trigger vibrations and power the phone's external speakers, however neodymium is also crucial to the navigation controls of ballistic missiles.

Why has China become the world's main producer?

Image
PHOTO: The Baiyun Ebo mine in China's Inner Mongolia region is the site of almost half the world's rare earth production. (Supplied: NASA)

Rare earths production has been overwhelmingly been left to China, as it has historically been unburdened by stringent labour and environmental protections that drive the rare earths' final price up, which is the case for producers in Australia and the United States.
This meant that China quickly became the world's main supplier of these resources— responsible for 85 to 95 per cent of global production since the 1990s — as it has been able to sell the commodities at much lower prices than other countries as a result of its less stringent environmental and health safety regulations, and lower labour costs.
In 2018, China produced about 120,000 tonnes, while the totals of the next two leading producers — Australia and the United States — were 20,000 and 15,000 respectively.

Image
PHOTO: Dysprosium is a rare earth element used in magnets because of its resistance to demagnetisation at high temperatures. (Supplied: Northern Minerals)

Unlike resources such as gold, rare earths can't simply be dug out of the ground and immediately processed as they're found inside other, non-rare-earth deposits. The materials that are dug up need to be broken down in order to isolate the rare earths.
One way to do this, Dr Mudd said, is through "hundreds and hundreds" of leaching cycles, which involves acid being used to separate minerals contained in rocks or sediment — an incredibly hazardous task for humans.
One rare earths mining town in northern China, Baotou — home to a large acid-mining tailings dam — has been dubbed "the worst place on earth", due to its levels of toxicity.
Some have argued that China has become the world's largest producer simply because Western nations don't want to do the dirty work that is required to produce rare earths.


What could happen if China really cuts global supplies?
In the days since China raised the spectre of weaponising its rare earths supply, prices for some minerals have jumped significantly — but in the long-term, finding rare earth alternatives in advanced manufacturing could take years of development.
If China does suddenly reduce its supply, prices for some smartphones and other products would rise in the months afterwards, as manufacturers would have to scramble to find new suppliers in the short-term, while resource scarcity could also drive up prices of rare earths.

Image
PHOTO: Rare earths power many of the global economy's products. (ABC News: Graphic by Jarrod Fankhauser)

This would have a profound effect on the US, according to Dr Jeffrey Wilson, international resource expert and research director at the Perth USAsia Centre.
"If [supply was to constrict] it will cause chaos and mayhem in the US industrial ecosystem, similar in scale to the Huawei bans," Dr Wilson said, referring to the US trade embargo on the Chinese tech giant.

But Dr Wilson also noted that the "perverse" effect of a rare earths trade slowdown would "be a significant boost" for Australian producers.
Australia was the second-largest producer of rare earths in 2018, and the local mining industry has touted them as the next potential trigger of a mining boom.
When China announced the threat, Australian rare earths miner Lynas — the only major producer outside China — saw its share price surge to its highest value in more than five years.

Image
PHOTO: Olympic Dam in South Australia has been touted as a rare earths mining site. (Supplied: BHP Billiton)

But despite the positive signs, scaling up Australia's rare earths industry to the size of China's won't happen overnight, and it could take years to build up the domestic industry's capacity.
China's total rare earths processing capacity stands at 220,000 tonnes, and for Australia to match China's 2018 rare earths production, it would need to increase production by 500 per cent.
A number of other sites around Australia have the potential to produce rare earths, but none are in the position to supply on a mass scale.
For now, it remains unclear whether Beijing's leaders will follow through with threats to weaponise its rare earths production, but there doesn't seem to be any hint of a reprieve in tensions between China and the United States on the horizon.
For Dr Wilson, this unfolding situation serves as an opportune reminder about the need for countries and manufacturers to get "real" about their economies and diversifying their resource suppliers.
"Being 90 per cent dependent on a single supplier — even if it's not China — is not a good idea," he said.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-06/ ... s/11167100

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Redneck
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Re: What happens if China restricts rare earths supply ?

Post by Redneck » Tue Dec 03, 2019 12:06 pm

Here's a look at the 10 countries that mined the most rare earths in 2018, as per the latest data from US Geological Survey.

China. Mine production: 120,000 MT. ...
Australia. Mine production: 20,000 MT. ...
United States. Mine production: 15,000 MT. ...
Myanmar. Mine production: 5,000 MT. ...
Russia. ...
India. ...
Brazil. ...
Thailand.

https://investingnews.com/daily/resourc ... countries/

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Black Orchid
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Re: What happens if China restricts rare earths supply ?

Post by Black Orchid » Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:42 pm

Interesting article thanks. I will think on it.

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Bogan
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Re: What happens if China restricts rare earths supply ?

Post by Bogan » Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:41 pm

What will happen? Easy. Other countries will mine and process rare earths and China will get egg on it's face. "Rare earths" are not rare. They were once, mainly because of the difficulty in refining them. But as far as I know, most countries have rare earth ores. The USA used to be the largest producer of rare earths in the world but EPA regulations forced their mines and smelters to be uneconomic and to close. China has the advantage here because it does not give a stuff for the environment and it has very cheap labour. But if they make a nuisance of themselves then other countries will subsidise their own producers because these "rare earths" are vital and even have strategic benefits.

Juliar
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Re: What happens if China restricts rare earths supply ?

Post by Juliar » Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:10 am

Maybe not quite so easy. Now read about the rare earths processing at Baotou, the largest industrial city in Inner Mongolia or Hell on Earth!!!!


The dystopian lake filled by the world’s tech lust
By Tim Maughan 3rd April 2015

Image
Baotou Lake

Hidden in an unknown corner of Inner Mongolia is a toxic, nightmarish lake created by our thirst for smartphones, consumer gadgets and green tech.

From where I'm standing, the city-sized Baogang Steel and Rare Earth complex dominates the horizon, its endless cooling towers and chimneys reaching up into grey, washed-out sky. Between it and me, stretching into the distance, lies an artificial lake filled with a black, barely-liquid, toxic sludge.

Dozens of pipes line the shore, churning out a torrent of thick, black, chemical waste from the refineries that surround the lake. The smell of sulphur and the roar of the pipes invades my senses. It feels like hell on Earth.

Welcome to Baotou, the largest industrial city in Inner Mongolia. I'm here with a group of architects and designers called the Unknown Fields Division, and this is the final stop on a three-week-long journey up the global supply chain, tracing back the route consumer goods take from China to our shops and homes, via container ships and factories.

You may not have heard of Baotou, but the mines and factories here help to keep our modern lives ticking. It is one of the world’s biggest suppliers of “rare earth” minerals. These elements can be found in everything from magnets in wind turbines and electric car motors, to the electronic guts of smartphones and flatscreen TVs. In 2009 China produced 95% of the world's supply of these elements, and it's estimated that the Bayan Obo mines just north of Baotou contain 70% of the world's reserves. But, as we would discover, at what cost?

Read the rest of this Hell Hole on Earth in Mongolia here

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2015 ... e-on-earth

Juliar
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Re: What happens if China restricts rare earths supply ?

Post by Juliar » Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:30 am

But despite the hazards associated with rare earths extraction and processing Australia is going to have a go.



Rare earths industry welcomes new US-Australian deal to ensure critical minerals supply
ABC Alice Springs By Katrina Beavan Updated yesterday at 3:07pm

Image
PHOTO: Two men dressed in orange operate a large drill rig on red dirt taking tube samples out of the machine. Nolans Bore Rare Earths project north of Alice Springs could benefit from the deal. (ABC News: Katrina Beavan)

RELATED STORY: How Washington is going to shore up our critical mineral supply
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RELATED STORY: China's threatening to restrict the metals that power our phones — here's what might happen
RELATED STORY: $900m rare earths mine in Central Australia approved despite radioactive risk

A newly-signed deal between Australia and the United States focusing on critical minerals could be the push to create a thriving rare earths industry in Australia and more specifically, central Australia, according to some mineral experts and rare earths industry players.

Key points:
The China-US trade war has thrown rare earths into focus as Beijing controls 85 per cent of supply
The growing demand for electric vehicles means rare earths are set to soar
There are currently only a handful of rare earths projects in Australia but significant, untapped supply


The deal comes months after the world's rare earths supply was thrust into the spotlight after Beijing threatened to restrict the rare earth trade as part of its ongoing trade war with the US.

On the other side of the world in outback Australia, Nolans Bore, a rare earths project north of Alice Springs, has welcomed the new deal.

The facility has been more than 15 years in the making, and the company behind it, Arafura Resources, said pending native title approval and finance, it was planning to start construction late next year.


Full details of the deal have not been made public but Brian Fowler, general manager for the Northern Territory with Arafura, said it was a sign that politicians were realising how geopolitically threatened rare earths are due to China's dominance in the market.

"[China] controls 85 per cent of the world's supply of rare earths," he said.

According to the company, the $1 billion project has a large, globally significant rare earth deposit of roughly 56 million tonnes.

"We have the potential to supply somewhere in the region of 8 to 10 per cent of the world's requirement for neodymium and praseodymium, two of the rare earths minerals," Mr Fowler said.

"Their role is in the production of the highest strength magnets on the planet, they are the absolute essential elements in the electrification of motor vehicles and in the production of clean energy using things like wind turbines."

Mr Fowler said considering the amount of car companies looking to make electric models, the current global supply of neodymium and praseodymium was not adequate to meet the predicted demand going forward.

Image
PHOTO: Long round stone samples lined up in a long tray being sprayed with water. Fresh rare earth samples are sprayed and inspected at the Nolans Bore project. (ABC News: Katrina Beavan)

'Hunger' for more rare earths
Chris Vernon, processing research director for CSIRO's mineral resources, agreed that demand was about to soar.

He said that although Australia had a significant supply of rare earths and sophisticated technology, investment had been holding the industry back.

"[The deal] looks very promising," he said.

"One of the bottlenecks to getting a project off the ground in Australia was the financing and the uncertainty [so] if government is stepping in and providing some surety about getting finance, that can only be a good thing."

He reiterated that the China-US trade war was to thank for throwing rare earths into focus.

"The rare earths market is about to explode, simply because we expect to put so many electric vehicles on the road; every one of those requires rare earths for their magnets," he said.

"There's also a burgeoning market in other technology uses.

"A car only takes a few tens of kilograms of rare earths but when you're looking at some high-tech military equipment for example, you could be looking at hundreds of kilograms of rare earths.

"There is a real hunger for more rare earths."

Image
PHOTO: A drill rig in action on a mine set taking samples being operated by two men dressed in orange. The Nolans Bore Rare Earths Project in central Australia plans to start construction in late 2020. (ABC News: Katrina Beavan)

Although Australia is 'well placed' to take advantage of this demand, Mr Vernon said there were currently only a handful of rare earth projects in the country.

That includes Northern Minerals' Browns Range project, also in central Australia, east of Halls Creek in Western Australia and further to the south in WA sits Lynas' operation at Mt Weld.

On the other side of the country is Alkane Resources' Dubbo project.

Environmental concerns
While Nolan's Bore has the required environmental approvals, a local advocacy group said it still had concerns around the mine.

However, they conceded that rare earths were needed for the transition to green energy by increasing the use of electric cars and wind turbines.

Alex Read, policy officer with the Arid Lands Environment Centre [ALEC], said the organisation was cautiously supportive of the project, providing that environmental regulations were followed.

"We understand the importance of having a supply of these metals for electric vehicles and renewable energy but we need to take a cautious approach to this," he said.

"And we need to have a broader conversation about the costs and benefits of these projects."

The Northern Territory Government will soon start consultation on draft environment protection regulations after passing the Environment Protection Bill earlier this year.

But ALEC would like to see proposed legislation changes in place before any new mines come online.

"One of the key flaws in the current framework is there is no way for directors to be held personally liable if they don't comply with their environmental requirements," Mr Read said.

"We want to make sure they have a chain of responsibility framework to make sure they're held personally responsible and we want to make sure that the rehabilitation program is completed as they say it would be.

"Rare earth mining comes with a lot of risks.

"Particularly with this project, we're seeing it's associated with elevated levels of radionuclides and we understand that they're going to be significant risks to groundwater, surface water [and] public health."

Mr Read said ALEC would also like to see changes put into place to ensure mining companies had to pay for their water licences.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-03/ ... m/11753620

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BigP
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Re: What happens if China restricts rare earths supply ?

Post by BigP » Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:36 am

Redneck wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 12:06 pm
Here's a look at the 10 countries that mined the most rare earths in 2018, as per the latest data from US Geological Survey.

China. Mine production: 120,000 MT. ...
Australia. Mine production: 20,000 MT. ...
United States. Mine production: 15,000 MT. ...
Myanmar. Mine production: 5,000 MT. ...
Russia. ...
India. ...
Brazil. ...
Thailand.

https://investingnews.com/daily/resourc ... countries/
Back in 2012, a US$8.4 billion rare earths deposit was discovered in Brazil. So far, it seems little energy has been put into the discovery — last year, rare earth tonnes mined in the country decreased a little, sinking from 1,700 MT in 2017 to 1,000 MT in 2018, the same as both Thailand and Burundi.

Juliar
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Re: What happens if China restricts rare earths supply ?

Post by Juliar » Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:53 am

After seeing the unholy mess in Mongolia where China extracts and processes rare earths no other country is too keen to copy this.

Texan
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Re: What happens if China restricts rare earths supply ?

Post by Texan » Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:15 pm

If China withholds export of rare metals, the market will adjust.

1. The price will go up.
2. Other sources will increase production.
3. Other countries may decide to explore their land and get into the business.
4. Prices will come down some and stabilize.

China depends on their exports as much as we depend on cheap goods. They have to keep a billion people fed and working or they will lose control of their population. Their other option is WW3, but that's a long shot.

I wish companies like Texas Instruments, Apple, and General Motors would shut down their production facilities in China. We depend on their technology for our military projects and I don't like the idea of sharing this with China.

I started some emergency power equipment in the US for Huawei. It looked very similar to American and European technology but it seemed to work well. We load tested it at 100% load for several hours. This was at the exact time that their CEO was arrested in Canada and brought to America, so I only know of 2 in house sites in America that use this equipment. I've heard IT guys claim that their servers copy the patented servers of other companies but I know nothing of that first hand. I hear law suits are going on. China steals every bit of technology that they can get their hands on. They make bootleg GM vehicles, movies, iphones, microchips, etc...... They won't let companies build in China with the cheap labor pool unless they give China a 50% partnership and let them have the technology to use in country. We should know better than this. They couldn't get an ICBM into orbit until Clinton gave them the technology to get "satellites" into space. How many countries have they shared this info with?

A trade war with China would slow down the theft of our technology. I can do without cheap crap and am willing to pay more, build it myself, or do without.

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BigP
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Re: What happens if China restricts rare earths supply ?

Post by BigP » Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:26 pm

Texan wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 12:15 pm
If China withholds export of rare metals, the market will adjust.

1. The price will go up.
2. Other sources will increase production.
3. Other countries may decide to explore their land and get into the business.
4. Prices will come down some and stabilize.

China depends on their exports as much as we depend on cheap goods. They have to keep a billion people fed and working or they will lose control of their population. Their other option is WW3, but that's a long shot.

I wish companies like Texas Instruments, Apple, and General Motors would shut down their production facilities in China. We depend on their technology for our military projects and I don't like the idea of sharing this with China.

I started some emergency power equipment in the US for Huawei. It looked very similar to American and European technology but it seemed to work well. We load tested it at 100% load for several hours. This was at the exact time that their CEO was arrested in Canada and brought to America, so I only know of 2 in house sites in America that use this equipment. I've heard IT guys claim that their servers copy the patented servers of other companies but I know nothing of that first hand. I hear law suits are going on. China steals every bit of technology that they can get their hands on. They make bootleg GM vehicles, movies, iphones, microchips, etc...... They won't let companies build in China with the cheap labor pool unless they give China a 50% partnership and let them have the technology to use in country. We should know better than this. They couldn't get an ICBM into orbit until Clinton gave them the technology to get "satellites" into space. How many countries have they shared this info with?

A trade war with China would slow down the theft of our technology. I can do without cheap crap and am willing to pay more, build it myself, or do without.
""A trade war with China would slow down the theft of our technology. I can do without cheap crap and am willing to pay more, build it myself, or do without.""


Never under value a quality made product, The added bonus is that it strengthens your economy :clap :yellow

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