Global Warming

[AiA in Atlanta]

Scientists Baffled as Report Proves Global Warming Has Stopped



In a report released by Spiegel science journal, the admission that the world has been waiting for for a long time is now here: Global Warming has stopped! Spiegel journalist Axel Bojanowski writes “The word has been out for quite some time now that the climate is developing differently than predicted earlier”. He poses the question: “How many more years of stagnation are needed before scientists rethink their predictions of future warming?”

http://www.collective-evolution.com/201 ... s-stopped/

[Super Nova]

In that same report AiA it states...

" In a key 2007 report, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggested it was likely we would see a temperature increase of 3C, with 4.5C considered ‘likely’. However, recent research shows the true figure is much lower – between 1.5C and 2C."

Between 1.5C and 2C is still warming.....

[AiA in Atlanta]

In that same report AiA it states...

" In a key 2007 report, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggested it was likely we would see a temperature increase of 3C, with 4.5C considered ‘likely’. However, recent research shows the true figure is much lower – between 1.5C and 2C."

Between 1.5C and 2C is still warming.....

And then there is this:

Denying Global Surface Warming via Cherrypicking



http://www.skepticalscience.com/rose-cu ... enial.html

[IQS.RLOW]

In that same report AiA it states...

" In a key 2007 report, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggested it was likely we would see a temperature increase of 3C, with 4.5C considered ‘likely’. However, recent research shows the true figure is much lower – between 1.5C and 2C."

Between 1.5C and 2C is still warming.....

So I guess you can tell us how much of that estimated warming is AGW even if it does magically pan out as they predict as they have never done before...

[Super Nova]

Nice strategy to get the boys to look at the picks to get them interested in this topic.

Godo article. I liked this bit the best.

The misconception that global warming has stopped is based on a lack of understanding of the physics of the global climate system. When the Earth has an energy imbalance (more incoming than outgoing energy) as is currently the case (due to the increased greenhouse effect), the planet must warm in order to restore an overall energy balance. Short-term effects can only stave off that warming for a short period of time. Thus we know from basic physics that the current slowed rate of global surface warming cannot last indefinitely.

In this context, Rose quotes Curry making an argument that strains credulity:

"If we are currently in a plateau and possibly headed for cooling, then sometime in the middle of the century we would likely see another period with a large warming trend."

Given the large and growing global energy imbalance, it is simply not remotely plausible that the natural variability in the climate system could offset the inevitable global surface warming (let alone cause cooling) for another three decades. As discussed below, even with virtually every major natural temperature influence aligning in the cooling direction over the past decade, surface temperatures have still warmed.

Physics will not be denied.

[IQS.RLOW]

Current warming is 0.03 deg C per decade based on the last 20 years
Not significant.
Not outside normality

No one gives a shit...plenty of more worthy causes that resources should be directed towards. Ask Mattus how he would feel that 90% of all funding was being directed towards a brilliant new tooth flosser that no one cares about or will use because it costs 3 x normal dental floss.

SN, you seem to swing between belief and doubt depending on the day. Why is that?

[IQS.RLOW]

PS...skeptical science has been debunked as a completely partisan hack and has been proven wrong even by the IPCC. You may as well go to the source which is Michael Mann whose own climate blog has been disowned which is why he has SkeptSc spruiking his wares

[Super Nova]

SN, you seem to swing between belief and doubt depending on the day. Why is that?

I am a swinger....

Seriously. I was shocked when I researched your view earlier this year and the most up-to-date articles at the time indicated warming was modest over the last 10 years or so.

Further reading indicates it is true that the warming is nothing like predicted but is not being reflected in the temperature readings collected and the way they are used to compare to the models predictions.

The earth is increasing in energy..... it goes somewhere.... warming will occur at a great rate once the effect that is holding back temperature rises is released.

Basically I believe we are building up energy.

[IQS.RLOW]

Of course you were surprised. Most kids are surprised when they hear that Santa isnt real, or someone tells them that God doesnt exist.

It's called being lied to.

1. The earth is not a closed system
2. Do you know what the total % of CO2 in the atmosphere and what % of that is supposedly anthropogenic?

[Outlaw Yogi]

I note from Mellie's links the denial crowd are now recycling their already debunked theories.

really? I wouldn't put any faith in anything mel posts.

Its not about personas, in this case being Mel's, it's about who and what info disseminated by whoever people put their faith/belief in.

Regarding GW/CC per se, fact is during the last ice age temperatures got colder and colder for roughly 100,000 years. Then 21,000 years ago it stopped getting colder, and temps remained static for 3000 years til 18,000 years ago. That 3,000 year period is known as the 'Last Glacial Maximum' (LGM). 18,000 the ice age ended, temps rose and have continued to do so since. 17,000 years ago there was a global flood from melt water. And again 14,000 years ago, and then 11,600 years ago it happened again.

I gather that warming wasn't due to man-made anything....

Probably/most likely not, but humans (including neanderthals) were using fire during the ice age, and a lot of submerged structures being found all over the world indicate homo-sapien was civilised (in some places at least) long before current anthropology's claim of 6000 years.
It could have been due to volcanoes, it could have been caused by other natural GHG induced global warming [probably involving CH4 or N2O] .. or as unlikely as it sounds it could have been caused by man via fire farming.
Global Warming as some point out is entirely natural. What is unatural is its current speed of acceleration . We're warming the planet faster than nature usually does.

Personally I'm not too concerned. I have no clan or brats to worry about, and where I am, GW/CC is causing increased levels of rain in my area .. which I like.

A few years ago the denial crowd, now calling themselves skeptics, would say virtually anything no matter how ridiculous so long as it disputed the GHG instigated GW scenario.
Now it's no longer a matter of denying the existence of GW, but an anything goes charade to dispute anything related to GHG induced GW, from the speed of ocean level rises to unexpected temperature anomolies, but the fact is as much as they wish GW didn't exist or would go away, it won't, forcing them to address GW as an active phenomena. Like so ..

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nationa ... 6099350056

Recently (couple of months ago) the Australian published an article 'Tide of ?' [can't remember last word in title]. It was a Climate Change article on the differing opinions of the various so called experts excuses or reasons for failing to predict ocean level rises had hastened/sped up. The article like most current attempts to down play GW/CC was pretty ordinary but was accompanied by an interesting map.


The map (of Oz) showed [in colour] the differing sea level rises around the country. The rises are not uniform, but might rise 4mm in a year on one part of the coast and 10mm a year on another part of coastline on the same continent.
One thing I noticed was sea level rise along NSW south coast was greater than that of Sydney. Knowing that the NSW south coast has land subsidence from coal mines, and tunnels that literally extend out under the ocean floor. When you blow the pillars in a coal mine, all the ground above eventually will sink, so land subsidence would explain why some areas suffer greater impact than others. I also noticed the same thing was happening around Bowen Qld, and the Bowen basin just like NSW south coast is littered with coal mines, and as the map illustrated the same affect in both areas, I presume Bowen coal mines also extend out under the ocean floor.

.

Found article I cited (map via link in article):
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/fe ... 6554651855

Now note that these articles published in the same paper several months apart conflict, and regardless of what the science says the deniers are looking for excuses to quibble over differences or the slightest discrepancies between varying research results. And make themsevles look like a bunch of cranks opposing something, not because of what it is, but because who made it an issue to be dealt with. The planet doesn't care about left, right, progressive, conservative, ect ect, politics don't count. The planet just reacts to certain stimuli like any other bunch of organisms.

Truth is it's too late to deal with it. All we can do is mitigate and adapt.
Last I heard Antartica has finally begun to thaw (proper).