Iowa Hiho!

[AiA in Atlanta]

Michigan will be interesting for a number of reasons...

[Mattus]

Michigan will be interesting for a number of reasons...

It's looking tighter than Rick Santorum's corn hole at mardi gras.

[AiA in Atlanta]

Michigan will be interesting for a number of reasons...

It's looking tighter than Rick Santorum's corn hole at mardi gras.

LOL

Will someone please shoot Sarah Palin?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162- ... or-office/

[Jovial Monk]

Sportingbet:

Rick Santorum
4.60

Should I put a couple of hundred on it?

[Mattus]

Is that for the Michigan primary or for the whole deal?

Either way it's a long bet. Michigan is still 11 days away. Can Santorum hold his lead for that long while polls suggest he may have already peaked? But who pays attention to polls. Especially with 11 days still to play.

We've already established why the GOP has a raging hard on for Santorum. He fits the Reagan timbre on social, warhawk and pseudo-fiscal policy. And he's not Romney, or Gingrich, so that's a plus. Hell even democrats are voting for him, though that may be for slightly different reasons.

But lets look at what's going for Mitt in Mish. Firstly it's his home state. He's a local boy made good, he grew up there. It doesn't mean he automatically wins but probably starts him off with a step up. The name Romney means something in Detroit, his old man George Romney was a car exec during the good old days when people, you know, lived there and had jobs and all. There's a link. It doesn't mean a lot, but it doesn't mean nothing either. Anyway it's a baseline advantage that Santorum won't have.

More important than sentiment, though, is money. Romney will outspend Santorum by a wide margin while forcing Santorum's PAC to bankrupt itself to keep up. He's shown already that he can win contests, just, where he outspends his opponent 4 to 1 and uses heavily negative messages.

So is it a good bet? If this race has taught us anything it's that you'd be a mug to bet on the outcome of this race. It's a demented roller coast this year, a real thigh slapper.

But more importantly, the outcome of Michigan won't make much difference. Whoever wins it will be too close to slam the door on the other. The worst result imaginable for Santorum would be a blow out win in Romney's home state. If that occurred the GOP establishment would suddenly realise he might actually be the candidate up against Obama in November and panic. Shit they might even hedge for a brokered convention and tap Jeb Bush back into the game as a white knight alternative.

No the most likely result is a few percentage point win by either Rick or Mitt, which will do nothing but prolong the long, ugly slog to Tampa.

[AiA in Atlanta]

the outcome of Michigan won't make much difference.

Gingrich said last weekend that if Romney doesn't win Michigan then he will have to quit. He could have been talking about himself: if Newt doesn't win Georgia he will have to quit.

[Mattus]

He could have been talking about himself: if Newt doesn't win Georgia he will have to quit.

What's the pulse in Atlanta? Will he win? I can't see it happening myself, too many people there know what he smells like.

Romney's getting creamed in Mish. What the fuck has happened to his speech writer? He's just listing things he can see from the window of his learjet while it taxis in. "I leik trees, lul"

[AiA in Atlanta]

Mattus,

That video you posted may be Romney's Howard Dean moment. Remember that?

Gingrich has hard-core affluent supporters in and around the white suburbs of Atlanta. He might do well in south Georgia as well. But I don't sense a broad-based support of the man.

[Mattus]

It's beginning to look like Rick's moment in the sun is over. Being under the spotlight is not comfortable for a senator, who must defend every vote they cast. In the Arizona debate Rick was bailed up for his support of Bush bills that ultimately failed, things like no child left behind and title X. Senators are judged harshly. Santorum has a nearly flawless conservative voting record. I mean for Christ's sake taking him to task on Title X is ludicrous, but Romney and Paul managed to make it look like a flip flop on a socially conservative issue.

Romney's had to spend a truly awesome amount of money, sums that are clearly unsustainable even for him, but he's back in pole for Mish and Arizona. We'll see how long this peak lasts before another surge from the non-Romney's takes the game in a new direction.

[Mattus]

Romney aint no Obama. One of these things is not like the others...


Obama Feb 4th 2008


Obama Feb 12th 2008


Obama Feb 25th 2008


Romney Feb 24th 2012