The polls

[skippy]

Whilst some right whinge jouno's and their sheep like to put a negative spin on the polls for the government , like this-




No doubt buoyed by populist polls, as all bad governments are . . . [/quote]

The truth is everybody loves kevvy, look at these stats-

Newspoll has come a day early – or six days late, depending on your perspective. Key findings of the survey, which was conducted over the past two days:

• Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 58-42 from 54-46 at the last Newspoll three weeks ago (although Peter Brent’s “rough calculation” had it at 55-45).

• Fifty-seven per cent believe the stimulus package will be good for the economy, and 48 per cent believe it will make them personally better off. Support is inversely proportional to age.

• Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is steady on 63 per cent, and his disapproval up one to 26 per cent.

• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down one point to 44 per cent, and his disapproval is up seven to 38 per cent.

• Sixty-three per cent believe the government is doing a good job managing the economy, and only 33 per cent believe the Coalition would do better.

That last stat is the big killer for the Libs ,they've lived off the porky that they were the better economic managers for eons but the bubble has burst, a whopping 63% of punters now see Labor as better economical managers, I doubt having a merchant banker as the Lib leader is doing them too many favours atm, nor would it help that people like Shamahan and his sheep still bang on with their spoilt brat antics.


Stats from William Bowe.

[Jovial Monk]

Talcum Allbull's PPM is down to 20%--Horatio country. A net 6% approval rating isn't flash either!

Wonder if desperate Fib/Nuts backbenchers are crawling to Costello? Oh come on Peter, become Opposition leader and keep Julie as your Deputy. . .Coalition support will go below 30%

[skippy]

Talcum Allbull's PPM is down to 20%--Horatio country. A net 6% approval rating isn't flash either!

Wonder if desperate Fib/Nuts backbenchers are crawling to Costello? Oh come on Peter, become Opposition leader and keep Julie as your Deputy. . .Coalition support will go below 30%

WE can only hope, what I find really funny are the right whingers who think Costello would be some kind of white knight, besides Turnbull and Costello openly hate each other, only one can survive, tip dosn't have the balls.

[Jovial Monk]

From the incomparable Possum:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/20 ... t-edition/

Turnbull has seen his undecideds break against him, his net satisfaction ratings are heading towards negative territory and when the reduction in the size of the undecideds on the sat ratings is combined with the vote estimates moving against him, it gives him a much reduced potential to get those votes he’s lost back.

Turnbull is flaming out before our eyes. While the vote estimates might bounce around a bit with usual volatility - those satisfaction ratings are slowly nailing his coffin shut, and the LNP’s chances of an election victory with.

Bit more there than the Ruddster buying votes! And, again, Rudd is out there talking to and consoling people who have lost everything in the fires. Attabull is playing on the beach! He should be there too! But, no, it is Rudd out there showing leadership and compassion! I bet some of the Newspoll improvement is down to that!

[Jovial Monk]

Yeah, hilarious Skippy! Costello the Savior! The man with no balls and no liking for hard, grinding, unglamorous work (which is needed to win elections) their savior? Oh my

[Jovial Monk]

Had to pinch that image (from the Possum article referenced above)

52% think the Coalition would have delivered a WORSE result, in other words, LABOR ARE THE BETTER ECONOMIC MANAGERS!

[mantra.]

LABOR ARE THE BETTER ECONOMIC MANAGERS

I think it's far too soon to tell. This package is only popular with the majority because of all the porkbarrelling which at the moment while the cost of mortgages and petrol are down isn't necessary. It's our children who are going to suffer in the long term by not only having to pay off their parents' personal debt, but the country's debt as well.

I can't say I'm overly impressed with Rudd and hope that eventually he'll be shoved out of the way by Julia Gillard. She looks like she's chomping at the bit, but has been reined in and silenced.

Rudd is still under the control of the trilateral commission and although he might be more personable than Howard - he still has to follow the old world order instructions. Turnbull has got the ego to become PM, but if ever does - it will be shortlived. Costello is just sniping from the sidelines and as Skippy says he hasn't got the guts to challenge the leadership. I can't see the Liberals getting in for many years, but either way - there's very little difference between the two parties.

[Jovial Monk]

Oh come on Mantra that is not true! If anything Rudd has moved a bit more left, become more democratic socialist than he was at the election! Remember his essay! Yes, we must repair the economic & financial system and not go back to the neoliberal mess that caused the crisis in the first place!

It is pork barreling when the money is misspent, as the Rodent's was, in a boom close to an election. The next election is two years away and we are in a recession, BIG difference! Yes cash handouts to get spending started followed by infrastructure work.

Not sure Julia would be next PM anyway. Sure the Caucus woulds see it the same way as you do?

Now, a little lecture on interest rate cuts (& applies to the lower petrol price too.)

Interest rates are a great brake on the economy! Raise them, homeowners paying off a mortgage have less money to spend and the economy slows every time (exception would be the ten 25basis-point cuts, they were too small in a mining-fuelled boom like we had.)

However, interest rate cuts are a lousy accelerator! Give people more money to spend and they may just save it or use it to pay the mortgage off quicker! Once bitten twice shy so to speak. The 3-4% in interest rate cuts had accelerated the economy so much retail would have been flattened without the first stimulus package!

In times of recession the government has to spend to keep the economy going!

[Jovial Monk]

Peter Brent's take on Newspoll:

February 8 10:30pm: Tomorrow's Newspoll says 58 to 42

A big shift from last fortnight but not the one before that, way back in early December. And a discernible movement in Malcolm's satisfaction from 'don't know' to dissatisfied.

Voting intentions etc here. [Update: Mr Shanahan here.]

Peter has a 'messy' blog on his take on politics. But he is usually spot on! Unlike another 'blogger' we know

http://www.mumble.com.au