ScoMo takes charge
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ScoMo takes charge
A good move by the PM. The states were responsible for managing their National Parks, many will say negligently, and fighting fires but the people ultimately hold the Federal Government accountable so the PM should have the necessary powers to do what the people demand and not be hamstrung, because he will be judged anyway.
The States don't ask for help - Morrison's fault!!!!!
Morrison acts proactively and provided 3000 extra boots on the ground - Shane Fitzsimmons has a tanty - why wasn't I told!
The mob pile on Morrison, ignoring the constraints of the Constitution -
Morrison suggests amending the Constitution to allow Commonwealth to act - the same mob pile on!
The same activists think it can all be changed with more tax!
But we don't "need" a Royal Commission, what we need is for the Environmental Activists to read and comprehend the recommendations of every prior investigation and RC held into the fires in this wide brown land.
It is fuel load that exacerbates the conflagration, ably abetted by careless and criminal humans.
Surely the activists can now see the folly of their ways and support rational fuel reduction so that humans and our explosive bush can co-exist. Their actions and obstructions were responsible for the fuel loads that lead to the cremation of the bush and its wildlife. I doubt they will - they will continue to blame the gas that is the basis of all life on this Planet and as far as science can tell anywhere else.
Scott Morrison’s bid to boost defence force disaster powers
SIMON BENSON GEOFF CHAMBERS 10:30PM JANUARY 28, 2020
Scott Morrison attends a Drought Advisory Board meeting in Orange, NSW, on Tuesday. Picture: AAP
Scott Morrison has flagged strengthening the constitutional and legal powers of the commonwealth to allow prime ministers to declare national disasters and call in the Defence Force rather than waiting for the states to ask for assistance.
The Australian understands the Prime Minister will also shift the Coalition’s posture on climate change and elevate preparation, resilience and adaptability to increasingly extreme events to a national security footing.
In a speech to the National Press Club on Wednesday that would otherwise have been expected to outline the government’s agenda for the year, Mr Morrison will focus on the government’s longer-term response to the devastating bushfire season and the future national emergency response plan.
He will also focus on the government’s economic plan as a successful formula by making a virtue of fiscal discipline that has given the government the ability to respond to disasters.
Mr Morrison will claim that the budget plan and the road back to surplus have meant the government now has the ability to deal with the recovery without imposing new taxes or levies, as he says a Labor government would have done.
The address, titled An Even Stronger, More Resilient Australia, will be the first headland speech for the year, ahead of the return to parliament next week.
Mr Morrison will call for a more immediate role for the ADF in future disasters and consider an overhaul of constitutional and legal frameworks to hand greater powers to the commonwealth to respond to natural disasters.
“I believe there is now a clear community expectation that the commonwealth should have the ability to respond in times of national emergencies and disasters, particularly through deployment of our defence forces in circumstances where the life and property of Australians have been assessed to be under threat,’’ he will say.
The Prime Minister will promote a three-point response to protect Australians and the economy from fires, floods and cyclones following an unprecedented bushfire season that has left more than 30 people dead and thousands of homes destroyed in multiple states and territories. Mr Morrison, who came under pressure in the lead-up to Christmas over his handling of the emerging bushfire crisis, said decisions needed to be made in relation to state and federal responsibilities, and committed to changing the law “where necessary”.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews called for Defence help in late December at the height of the bushfire crisis and the navy evacuated stranded holidaymakers from Mallacoota.
The NSW government early this month declined an offer from the Prime Minister to deploy a fleet of naval ships and military helicopters to help with evacuations from the state’s south coast.
The speech will not include new announcements on climate change policy but will pitch his message to middle Australia by focusing on practical measures.
It will recognise climate change and broader environmental issues as threats to people’s livelihoods.
Natural disaster response and climate resilience will now feature as key planks of the Coalition’s broader approach to national and economic security.
While responses to natural disasters are already an issue for cabinet’s national security committee, Mr Morrison is expected to say they will now have greater emphasis.
He will say that findings from previous inquiries into natural disasters have been “forgotten and de-prioritised over time”.
“One of the first tasks of a royal commission will be to audit the implementation of previous recommendations, drawing on work that has already been done in this area,” Mr Morrison will say. “As the years pass, the bush grows back and fuel loads increase, people move in still larger numbers to live in fire-prone areas and dangerous fires occur again in a cycle which must be broken.
“We must continue to learn from this fire season so we are better prepared for the next one, whether that be the deployment of the ADF, local hazard reduction, access to resources such as aerial firefighting equipment, consistency of disaster recovery arrangements or resilience in the face of a changing climate.”
With the government’s $5bn surplus under pressure following the bushfire disaster and ongoing drought, Mr Morrison will say it is crucial to clarify how the commonwealth’s resources and capabilities are engaged in future crises. “The scale of the bushfires this season — not least their simultaneous reach across state borders — has unequivocally demonstrated the limits of those arrangements,” he will say.
“As I’ve said before, I have been very conscious of testing the limits of constitutionally defined roles and responsibilities this bushfire season.”
The Prime Minister will also pledge to introduce an enhanced national accountability for “natural disaster risk management, resilience and preparedness”.
Mr Morrison last week called for a national standard for bushfire hazard reduction burns and declared that tracking measures to cut fuel loads was at least as important as monitoring Australia’s carbon emissions.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation ... 4f9d8a4cba
The States don't ask for help - Morrison's fault!!!!!
Morrison acts proactively and provided 3000 extra boots on the ground - Shane Fitzsimmons has a tanty - why wasn't I told!
The mob pile on Morrison, ignoring the constraints of the Constitution -
Morrison suggests amending the Constitution to allow Commonwealth to act - the same mob pile on!
The same activists think it can all be changed with more tax!
But we don't "need" a Royal Commission, what we need is for the Environmental Activists to read and comprehend the recommendations of every prior investigation and RC held into the fires in this wide brown land.
It is fuel load that exacerbates the conflagration, ably abetted by careless and criminal humans.
Surely the activists can now see the folly of their ways and support rational fuel reduction so that humans and our explosive bush can co-exist. Their actions and obstructions were responsible for the fuel loads that lead to the cremation of the bush and its wildlife. I doubt they will - they will continue to blame the gas that is the basis of all life on this Planet and as far as science can tell anywhere else.
Scott Morrison’s bid to boost defence force disaster powers
SIMON BENSON GEOFF CHAMBERS 10:30PM JANUARY 28, 2020
Scott Morrison attends a Drought Advisory Board meeting in Orange, NSW, on Tuesday. Picture: AAP
Scott Morrison has flagged strengthening the constitutional and legal powers of the commonwealth to allow prime ministers to declare national disasters and call in the Defence Force rather than waiting for the states to ask for assistance.
The Australian understands the Prime Minister will also shift the Coalition’s posture on climate change and elevate preparation, resilience and adaptability to increasingly extreme events to a national security footing.
In a speech to the National Press Club on Wednesday that would otherwise have been expected to outline the government’s agenda for the year, Mr Morrison will focus on the government’s longer-term response to the devastating bushfire season and the future national emergency response plan.
He will also focus on the government’s economic plan as a successful formula by making a virtue of fiscal discipline that has given the government the ability to respond to disasters.
Mr Morrison will claim that the budget plan and the road back to surplus have meant the government now has the ability to deal with the recovery without imposing new taxes or levies, as he says a Labor government would have done.
The address, titled An Even Stronger, More Resilient Australia, will be the first headland speech for the year, ahead of the return to parliament next week.
Mr Morrison will call for a more immediate role for the ADF in future disasters and consider an overhaul of constitutional and legal frameworks to hand greater powers to the commonwealth to respond to natural disasters.
“I believe there is now a clear community expectation that the commonwealth should have the ability to respond in times of national emergencies and disasters, particularly through deployment of our defence forces in circumstances where the life and property of Australians have been assessed to be under threat,’’ he will say.
The Prime Minister will promote a three-point response to protect Australians and the economy from fires, floods and cyclones following an unprecedented bushfire season that has left more than 30 people dead and thousands of homes destroyed in multiple states and territories. Mr Morrison, who came under pressure in the lead-up to Christmas over his handling of the emerging bushfire crisis, said decisions needed to be made in relation to state and federal responsibilities, and committed to changing the law “where necessary”.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews called for Defence help in late December at the height of the bushfire crisis and the navy evacuated stranded holidaymakers from Mallacoota.
The NSW government early this month declined an offer from the Prime Minister to deploy a fleet of naval ships and military helicopters to help with evacuations from the state’s south coast.
The speech will not include new announcements on climate change policy but will pitch his message to middle Australia by focusing on practical measures.
It will recognise climate change and broader environmental issues as threats to people’s livelihoods.
Natural disaster response and climate resilience will now feature as key planks of the Coalition’s broader approach to national and economic security.
While responses to natural disasters are already an issue for cabinet’s national security committee, Mr Morrison is expected to say they will now have greater emphasis.
He will say that findings from previous inquiries into natural disasters have been “forgotten and de-prioritised over time”.
“One of the first tasks of a royal commission will be to audit the implementation of previous recommendations, drawing on work that has already been done in this area,” Mr Morrison will say. “As the years pass, the bush grows back and fuel loads increase, people move in still larger numbers to live in fire-prone areas and dangerous fires occur again in a cycle which must be broken.
“We must continue to learn from this fire season so we are better prepared for the next one, whether that be the deployment of the ADF, local hazard reduction, access to resources such as aerial firefighting equipment, consistency of disaster recovery arrangements or resilience in the face of a changing climate.”
With the government’s $5bn surplus under pressure following the bushfire disaster and ongoing drought, Mr Morrison will say it is crucial to clarify how the commonwealth’s resources and capabilities are engaged in future crises. “The scale of the bushfires this season — not least their simultaneous reach across state borders — has unequivocally demonstrated the limits of those arrangements,” he will say.
“As I’ve said before, I have been very conscious of testing the limits of constitutionally defined roles and responsibilities this bushfire season.”
The Prime Minister will also pledge to introduce an enhanced national accountability for “natural disaster risk management, resilience and preparedness”.
Mr Morrison last week called for a national standard for bushfire hazard reduction burns and declared that tracking measures to cut fuel loads was at least as important as monitoring Australia’s carbon emissions.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation ... 4f9d8a4cba
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- Posts: 1355
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:56 am
Re: ScoMo takes charge
ScoMo is like one of those little critters that survives the bushfires. With the Greeny controlled Labor Party and their Political Propaganda Arm GetUp! collapsing around him ScoMo strides out unscathed. It looks like ScoMo is home and hosed at the next election as the flubbery AnAl is no competition. Shifty old Shorty must be slavering in the wings.
How Morrison can regain lost ground
By PETER VAN ONSELEN From Inquirer January 28, 2020
Bushfires have hurt the PM’s standing but far from irreparably. His National Press Club address is his first chance for a reset.
Scott Morrison has the opportunity to regain lost ground when Parliament returns next month.
For a non-election year, 2020 is already testing Scott Morrison and the government.
As the Prime Minister prepares to spell out his priorities for the year in an address to the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday, the honeymoon appears to be over for him eight months after his stunning election victory.
The fallout from the bushfires — how they were handled and the economic toll — will keep the government on its toes. And the controversy surrounding Bridget McKenzie’s sports grants allocations has sharpened the public’s cynicism towards the Coalition.
While the first Newspoll of the new year, released on January 13, didn’t show a significant collapse in the Coalition’s primary and two-party votes, personal support for Morrison has fallen off a cliff. His better prime minister rating dropped nine points, falling behind Anthony Albanese, and dissatisfaction with Morrison’s performance went up to 59 per cent — the highest it has been since he took over from Malcolm Turnbull.
The first Essential poll of the year mirrored these results.
Voters reacted angrily to the timing of Morrison’s overseas holiday in Hawaii and the lack of empathy he showed on his return. The obfuscation when it came to answering questions about what he could or should have done differently appears to have weakened him. At the very least, the shift is likely to remove the benefit of the doubt he had when confronting challenges.
Fires and climate change
Partisan divisions over climate policy have ebbed and flowed since Kevin Rudd and John Howard took an emissions trading scheme policy framework to the 2007 election.
The momentum seems to have shifted once again towards greater action on climate change, but what that might look like remains an open question. Does the Coalition plan to change its present policies? Morrison alluded to possible adjustments to emissions targets in a January 12 interview with David Speers on the ABC.
In subsequent media appearances, the Prime Minister and senior ministers discussed “climate change adaptation” as the new focus. Despite this, conservatives within the Coalition’s ranks are unlikely to tolerate any shift.
While the critical reaction to the Prime Minister’s initial decision to take a back seat during the bushfires took Morrison by surprise, the intensity of the fires shouldn’t have shocked anyone.
Scott Morrison greets troops during a visit to an army water purification station at Kingscote Jetty on Kangaroo Island earlier this month. Picture: AAP
Former emergency chiefs had written to him midway through last year warning of what was to come in this bushfires season. The tin ear of the Prime Minister was startling. Morrison refused to meet them.
Morrison has intimated at a royal commission into the fires at the beginning of this year, and no doubt will put more meat on the bones of what that may look like before formal terms of reference are announced. It will be interesting to see if he seeks to limit the scope of the inquiry to prevent embarrassing findings around climate change action from pointing the political spotlight on to the government.
Morrison will want any inquiry to target the performances of state governments, but he won’t want any royal commission to be easily dismissed as a political exercise, which would mean framing the terms of reference so federal Labor and the states support them.
Once the fires are brought under control, the focus will shift to the recovery. Recriminations into what went wrong and the significance of the drought will return to centre stage. By year’s end, including through the budget process before then, the cost of the bushfires’ recovery will become more apparent. What the potential fire season at the end of 2020 looks like will frame how the political year closes.
The states will use the year to take full advantage of Morrison’s weakened political state on this issue, using his fiscal generosity to help rebuild damaged state infrastructure. It is unlikely the federal government will push back on the states in this respect, but tensions may emerge as the recovery process moves into full swing.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison surveys fire-damaged property at Stokes Bay, Kangaroo Island. Picture: AAP
Budget surplus
Ever since the Rudd government blew the budget and started racking up national debt following on from the global financial crisis a decade ago, the Coalition has sought to use its status in polls as the preferred economic managers as a weapon against Labor.
It was crucial in Morrison’s take-down of then Labor leader Bill Shorten in the May 18 election. The promised return to surplus has been a central part of this narrative and 2020 was supposed to be the year it came to fruition.
Even though national debt has doubled since the Coalition came to power more than six years ago, a strong budget focus in that time has been to keep a lid on recurrent spending in a bid to balance the books. Much has been made of this objective and as the certainty of achieving it grew, so has the certainty of the promise to do so.
The question now is: will the government still get there this year? Or will the impact of the bushfires alongside already weakening economic growth turn the promise into a mirage?
Even if the surplus is achieved this year, does it become “five minutes of economic sunshine”, as John Howard referred to a brief uplift in the Australian economy under Paul Keating in 1995?
Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s budget surplus may prove to become their “five minutes of economic sunshine”. Picture: Getty Images
If the surplus does fall by the wayside, will the public be more forgiving of the Coalition for the reasons behind that broken promise than the Coalition was of Labor after the GFC? The comparison may not be precisely analogous but that doesn’t mean events won’t be compared in that way.
It remains more likely than not that Josh Frydenberg will produce a budget surplus come May. Much of the spending on the recovery won’t hit this year’s budget bottom line. And even though taxation collections over the summer months within the tourism industry will be hit hard, the surplus goal is still achievable. Ultimately, though, debate over narrowly achieving a surplus versus narrowly missing out is vacuous.
Irrespective of the impact of the bushfires, this year was already set to be a difficult one economically. Wages growth is sluggish, as is economic growth. Unemployment started the year higher than initially predicted and the problem of underemployment in the gig economy is only likely to grow.
While the Coalition has had a strong focus on achieving a surplus for political reasons, the central bank has been acting in a rather contradictory way — dropping interest rates to record lows last year, with economists predicting more falls again this year.
If the bushfire recovery further hampers economic growth, such outcomes may see even greater reductions in the cash rate. Not that there is much room to move with a rate of only 0.75 per cent to start the year.
The budget will continue to be propped up by higher-than-forecast commodity prices, stimulated by demand from China. If that doesn’t happen then the surplus target really will fade from view.
Meeting of the minds ... Scott Morrison with Chinese president Xi Jinping at G20 in Osaka last year. Picture: Adam Taylor/PMO
Trade talk
No political forecast for a new year is complete without considering the impact of China on our economy. This year that forecast includes what, if any, risks are attached to a trade war between China and the US, remembering that this is also a US presidential election year. While President Donald Trump may need to dial down the rhetoric of a trade war with China, risks remain. Australia’s closest ally is the US, and Trump’s America expects this to count for something.
It is heartening to work side-by-side with our closest friend the United States at a time of crisis and great loss. We are always friends who stand together.
Thank you also to President @realDonaldTrump, Vice President @Mike_Pence and @SecPompeo for your continuous and steadfast support for Australia at this difficult time. Scott Morrison
Yet China is Australia’s largest export market and its significance to our economic success continues to grow. Politically, the Coalition will be inclined to back the US, albeit mindful that if China retaliates for such positioning a recession becomes a possibility. The chances of this happening remain remote but real.
Britain’s departure from the EU will see it clamouring for new trade deals, and Australia could benefit from that. Negotiations with Britain for new arrangements will feature this year, as will discussions with India for a free-trade deal.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, pictured with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the G7 summit in Biarritz, France last year, will be hoping to capitalise on trade opportunities created by Britain’s exit from the European Union. Picture: Adam Taylor/PMO
Party tensions
Expect 2020 to be another year in which the reactionary right within the Liberal Party stirs up problems for the Prime Minister, especially in policy areas such as climate change and religious freedoms.
However, unlike past years when such rabble-rousing risked leadership tensions, Morrison will face no such problems. There is no obvious alternative leader and the credibility of last year’s election win, alongside rule changes for challenges, renders a leadership challenge almost impossible.
The Coalition will rely on Scott Morrison’s talent for winning elections. Picture: AAP
Even if Morrison’s popularity fades this year, his party will rely on his talent for winning elections. Howard enjoyed the same protection from internal adversaries.
But divisions within the Nationals are almost certain to re-emerge this year, despite the authority of the Liberal Prime Minister.
Nationals leader Michael McCormack doesn’t enjoy the same authority within his party that Morrison does. The Deputy Prime Minister will continue to be undermined from within.
The slowness to act on the Auditor-General’s findings in respect to the sports rorts saga is at least in part a consequence of McCormack’s concern that if McKenzie goes it may provide an opportunity for Barnaby Joyce to use a return to the frontbench as a stepping stone towards the leadership.
While it is unlikely the Opposition Leader will face a challenge this year, if Albanese isn’t competitive in the polls by year’s end it is possible that the traditional killing season comes into play.
More likely, Albanese will get a clear shot at an election campaign next year or in 2022. Ambitious leaders of the future know that if he fails, a Melbourne Cup list of contenders can start jostling for position more openly.
The first among equals in that respect is Treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers, whose performance will be important to his ambitions as well as to the fortunes of the opposition this year.
The internal challenge for Labor this year will be balancing the more left-wing forces within its ranks who are determined to ensure the party doesn’t lurch to the right in response to last year’s election.
In their view, pandering to coal mining communities is a misreading of what needs to happen to recapture centrist voters for the party.
Albanese has already indicated a penchant for wanting to find ways to re-engage with traditional working-class communities.
He has affirmed Labor’s support for coal exports, which suggests if the Coalition does dominate Labor in the polls this year, these divisions will become a problem for the Opposition Leader on his left flank.
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese and PM Scott Morrison deliver their end of year speeches in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra in December. Picture: Kym Smith
Policy over marketing
Morrison’s campaigning skills were key to his success last year. For the Prime Minister to make 2020 a winning political year also, he needs to use it to prove he can govern as effectively.
In other words, policy, not marketing, must become the focus of the former marketing man; substance, not spin, must become the focus of the former party official.
The year has started with the exposure of significant deficiencies in his office. And the sport rorts saga has left the public questioning the Coalition’s intentions when it comes to the use of taxpayers’ money.
The reaction privately within Team Morrison to these deficiencies being exposed so publicly has been one of annoyance and frustration, rather than reflection on what needs to change.
That said, there is no guarantee voters will turn on their Prime Minister, having only recently endorsed him for three more years in office.
The policy agenda for the year ahead, beyond pet projects such as a religious discrimination act, appears rather bare.
One of the most interesting things to watch this year will be if the Morrison government is treated like a new government or one now into its third term.
If the former is the case, life may be difficult for Labor this year; no first-term government has lost an election in this country since 1931.
If, however, the Coalition is treated like the third-term government it actually is — albeit one on to its third prime minister — public expectations will rise. Only three governments have managed to win a fourth term since Federation.
The smart money has to be on the Prime Minister and the Coalition surviving right through this year and the next. But whether the government thrives in office remains an entirely open question.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquir ... b6963f4c0c
How Morrison can regain lost ground
By PETER VAN ONSELEN From Inquirer January 28, 2020
Bushfires have hurt the PM’s standing but far from irreparably. His National Press Club address is his first chance for a reset.
Scott Morrison has the opportunity to regain lost ground when Parliament returns next month.
For a non-election year, 2020 is already testing Scott Morrison and the government.
As the Prime Minister prepares to spell out his priorities for the year in an address to the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday, the honeymoon appears to be over for him eight months after his stunning election victory.
The fallout from the bushfires — how they were handled and the economic toll — will keep the government on its toes. And the controversy surrounding Bridget McKenzie’s sports grants allocations has sharpened the public’s cynicism towards the Coalition.
While the first Newspoll of the new year, released on January 13, didn’t show a significant collapse in the Coalition’s primary and two-party votes, personal support for Morrison has fallen off a cliff. His better prime minister rating dropped nine points, falling behind Anthony Albanese, and dissatisfaction with Morrison’s performance went up to 59 per cent — the highest it has been since he took over from Malcolm Turnbull.
The first Essential poll of the year mirrored these results.
Voters reacted angrily to the timing of Morrison’s overseas holiday in Hawaii and the lack of empathy he showed on his return. The obfuscation when it came to answering questions about what he could or should have done differently appears to have weakened him. At the very least, the shift is likely to remove the benefit of the doubt he had when confronting challenges.
Fires and climate change
Partisan divisions over climate policy have ebbed and flowed since Kevin Rudd and John Howard took an emissions trading scheme policy framework to the 2007 election.
The momentum seems to have shifted once again towards greater action on climate change, but what that might look like remains an open question. Does the Coalition plan to change its present policies? Morrison alluded to possible adjustments to emissions targets in a January 12 interview with David Speers on the ABC.
In subsequent media appearances, the Prime Minister and senior ministers discussed “climate change adaptation” as the new focus. Despite this, conservatives within the Coalition’s ranks are unlikely to tolerate any shift.
While the critical reaction to the Prime Minister’s initial decision to take a back seat during the bushfires took Morrison by surprise, the intensity of the fires shouldn’t have shocked anyone.
Scott Morrison greets troops during a visit to an army water purification station at Kingscote Jetty on Kangaroo Island earlier this month. Picture: AAP
Former emergency chiefs had written to him midway through last year warning of what was to come in this bushfires season. The tin ear of the Prime Minister was startling. Morrison refused to meet them.
Morrison has intimated at a royal commission into the fires at the beginning of this year, and no doubt will put more meat on the bones of what that may look like before formal terms of reference are announced. It will be interesting to see if he seeks to limit the scope of the inquiry to prevent embarrassing findings around climate change action from pointing the political spotlight on to the government.
Morrison will want any inquiry to target the performances of state governments, but he won’t want any royal commission to be easily dismissed as a political exercise, which would mean framing the terms of reference so federal Labor and the states support them.
Once the fires are brought under control, the focus will shift to the recovery. Recriminations into what went wrong and the significance of the drought will return to centre stage. By year’s end, including through the budget process before then, the cost of the bushfires’ recovery will become more apparent. What the potential fire season at the end of 2020 looks like will frame how the political year closes.
The states will use the year to take full advantage of Morrison’s weakened political state on this issue, using his fiscal generosity to help rebuild damaged state infrastructure. It is unlikely the federal government will push back on the states in this respect, but tensions may emerge as the recovery process moves into full swing.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison surveys fire-damaged property at Stokes Bay, Kangaroo Island. Picture: AAP
Budget surplus
Ever since the Rudd government blew the budget and started racking up national debt following on from the global financial crisis a decade ago, the Coalition has sought to use its status in polls as the preferred economic managers as a weapon against Labor.
It was crucial in Morrison’s take-down of then Labor leader Bill Shorten in the May 18 election. The promised return to surplus has been a central part of this narrative and 2020 was supposed to be the year it came to fruition.
Even though national debt has doubled since the Coalition came to power more than six years ago, a strong budget focus in that time has been to keep a lid on recurrent spending in a bid to balance the books. Much has been made of this objective and as the certainty of achieving it grew, so has the certainty of the promise to do so.
The question now is: will the government still get there this year? Or will the impact of the bushfires alongside already weakening economic growth turn the promise into a mirage?
Even if the surplus is achieved this year, does it become “five minutes of economic sunshine”, as John Howard referred to a brief uplift in the Australian economy under Paul Keating in 1995?
Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s budget surplus may prove to become their “five minutes of economic sunshine”. Picture: Getty Images
If the surplus does fall by the wayside, will the public be more forgiving of the Coalition for the reasons behind that broken promise than the Coalition was of Labor after the GFC? The comparison may not be precisely analogous but that doesn’t mean events won’t be compared in that way.
It remains more likely than not that Josh Frydenberg will produce a budget surplus come May. Much of the spending on the recovery won’t hit this year’s budget bottom line. And even though taxation collections over the summer months within the tourism industry will be hit hard, the surplus goal is still achievable. Ultimately, though, debate over narrowly achieving a surplus versus narrowly missing out is vacuous.
Irrespective of the impact of the bushfires, this year was already set to be a difficult one economically. Wages growth is sluggish, as is economic growth. Unemployment started the year higher than initially predicted and the problem of underemployment in the gig economy is only likely to grow.
While the Coalition has had a strong focus on achieving a surplus for political reasons, the central bank has been acting in a rather contradictory way — dropping interest rates to record lows last year, with economists predicting more falls again this year.
If the bushfire recovery further hampers economic growth, such outcomes may see even greater reductions in the cash rate. Not that there is much room to move with a rate of only 0.75 per cent to start the year.
The budget will continue to be propped up by higher-than-forecast commodity prices, stimulated by demand from China. If that doesn’t happen then the surplus target really will fade from view.
Meeting of the minds ... Scott Morrison with Chinese president Xi Jinping at G20 in Osaka last year. Picture: Adam Taylor/PMO
Trade talk
No political forecast for a new year is complete without considering the impact of China on our economy. This year that forecast includes what, if any, risks are attached to a trade war between China and the US, remembering that this is also a US presidential election year. While President Donald Trump may need to dial down the rhetoric of a trade war with China, risks remain. Australia’s closest ally is the US, and Trump’s America expects this to count for something.
It is heartening to work side-by-side with our closest friend the United States at a time of crisis and great loss. We are always friends who stand together.
Thank you also to President @realDonaldTrump, Vice President @Mike_Pence and @SecPompeo for your continuous and steadfast support for Australia at this difficult time. Scott Morrison
Yet China is Australia’s largest export market and its significance to our economic success continues to grow. Politically, the Coalition will be inclined to back the US, albeit mindful that if China retaliates for such positioning a recession becomes a possibility. The chances of this happening remain remote but real.
Britain’s departure from the EU will see it clamouring for new trade deals, and Australia could benefit from that. Negotiations with Britain for new arrangements will feature this year, as will discussions with India for a free-trade deal.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, pictured with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the G7 summit in Biarritz, France last year, will be hoping to capitalise on trade opportunities created by Britain’s exit from the European Union. Picture: Adam Taylor/PMO
Party tensions
Expect 2020 to be another year in which the reactionary right within the Liberal Party stirs up problems for the Prime Minister, especially in policy areas such as climate change and religious freedoms.
However, unlike past years when such rabble-rousing risked leadership tensions, Morrison will face no such problems. There is no obvious alternative leader and the credibility of last year’s election win, alongside rule changes for challenges, renders a leadership challenge almost impossible.
The Coalition will rely on Scott Morrison’s talent for winning elections. Picture: AAP
Even if Morrison’s popularity fades this year, his party will rely on his talent for winning elections. Howard enjoyed the same protection from internal adversaries.
But divisions within the Nationals are almost certain to re-emerge this year, despite the authority of the Liberal Prime Minister.
Nationals leader Michael McCormack doesn’t enjoy the same authority within his party that Morrison does. The Deputy Prime Minister will continue to be undermined from within.
The slowness to act on the Auditor-General’s findings in respect to the sports rorts saga is at least in part a consequence of McCormack’s concern that if McKenzie goes it may provide an opportunity for Barnaby Joyce to use a return to the frontbench as a stepping stone towards the leadership.
While it is unlikely the Opposition Leader will face a challenge this year, if Albanese isn’t competitive in the polls by year’s end it is possible that the traditional killing season comes into play.
More likely, Albanese will get a clear shot at an election campaign next year or in 2022. Ambitious leaders of the future know that if he fails, a Melbourne Cup list of contenders can start jostling for position more openly.
The first among equals in that respect is Treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers, whose performance will be important to his ambitions as well as to the fortunes of the opposition this year.
The internal challenge for Labor this year will be balancing the more left-wing forces within its ranks who are determined to ensure the party doesn’t lurch to the right in response to last year’s election.
In their view, pandering to coal mining communities is a misreading of what needs to happen to recapture centrist voters for the party.
Albanese has already indicated a penchant for wanting to find ways to re-engage with traditional working-class communities.
He has affirmed Labor’s support for coal exports, which suggests if the Coalition does dominate Labor in the polls this year, these divisions will become a problem for the Opposition Leader on his left flank.
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese and PM Scott Morrison deliver their end of year speeches in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra in December. Picture: Kym Smith
Policy over marketing
Morrison’s campaigning skills were key to his success last year. For the Prime Minister to make 2020 a winning political year also, he needs to use it to prove he can govern as effectively.
In other words, policy, not marketing, must become the focus of the former marketing man; substance, not spin, must become the focus of the former party official.
The year has started with the exposure of significant deficiencies in his office. And the sport rorts saga has left the public questioning the Coalition’s intentions when it comes to the use of taxpayers’ money.
The reaction privately within Team Morrison to these deficiencies being exposed so publicly has been one of annoyance and frustration, rather than reflection on what needs to change.
That said, there is no guarantee voters will turn on their Prime Minister, having only recently endorsed him for three more years in office.
The policy agenda for the year ahead, beyond pet projects such as a religious discrimination act, appears rather bare.
One of the most interesting things to watch this year will be if the Morrison government is treated like a new government or one now into its third term.
If the former is the case, life may be difficult for Labor this year; no first-term government has lost an election in this country since 1931.
If, however, the Coalition is treated like the third-term government it actually is — albeit one on to its third prime minister — public expectations will rise. Only three governments have managed to win a fourth term since Federation.
The smart money has to be on the Prime Minister and the Coalition surviving right through this year and the next. But whether the government thrives in office remains an entirely open question.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquir ... b6963f4c0c
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Re: ScoMo takes charge
For weeks now there has been a steady stream of critical commentary regarding Scott Morrison's and the Government's "mishandling" of the bush fire crisis.
The thing lacking from this commentary is exactly what they did wrong, and what exactly should have been done.
He went on holiday while the fires were burning? So what? The fires had been burning for months. What exactly could he have done if he had not gone on holiday?
If there was actually something he could have done, then this implicitly states that the fire services are inadequate or incompetent. If they rely on the PM to do their jobs, then there is something seriously wrong with the fire services.
Therefore, the criticism should be directed at them, not Scott Morrison.
However, from everything that has been reported, the fire services have responded as well as can be expected, and Morrison has had no part to play. What is clearly evident is that the criticism of Scott Morrison is nothing other than spite.
Would someone please explain how this constant shrieking and criticism is anything other than political point scoring?
The thing lacking from this commentary is exactly what they did wrong, and what exactly should have been done.
He went on holiday while the fires were burning? So what? The fires had been burning for months. What exactly could he have done if he had not gone on holiday?
If there was actually something he could have done, then this implicitly states that the fire services are inadequate or incompetent. If they rely on the PM to do their jobs, then there is something seriously wrong with the fire services.
Therefore, the criticism should be directed at them, not Scott Morrison.
However, from everything that has been reported, the fire services have responded as well as can be expected, and Morrison has had no part to play. What is clearly evident is that the criticism of Scott Morrison is nothing other than spite.
Would someone please explain how this constant shrieking and criticism is anything other than political point scoring?
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- Posts: 1355
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:56 am
Re: ScoMo takes charge
Unlike the Greeny controlled Labor Party the Libs will NOT destroy the Australian economy in a vacuous pursuit of the Greenies' non-existent Climate Change SCAM.
Voters who wisely chose ScoMo are relieved to see intelligence overpowering Greeny stupidity.
Australian minister claims PM Scott Morrison has led ‘historically unprecedented’ bush fire effort
Chloe Taylor PUBLISHED THU, JAN 23 20209:12 AM EST
Prime Minister Scott Morrison visits a fire damaged property on Kangaroo Island on January 8, 2020. David Mariuz | Pool | Getty Images
The Australian prime minister has received praise for his leadership in tackling devastating bush fires that have flared for months.
Protestors marched across most of Australia’s state capital cities earlier this month, calling for Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s resignation and slamming the government’s stance on climate change.
Morrison has also been forced to apologize to Australians for initially refusing to cut short an overseas family holiday in the U.S. state of Hawaii while the bush fires raged. His approval rating has taken a huge hit amid the crisis.
Speaking to CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday, Australian Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said in spite of the anger, the country’s Prime Minister had “led a historically unprecedented national bush fire response effort.”
Asked whether the crisis would provoke a change in the Australian government’s environmental policies, Cormann said the bush fires and climate policies were “two different issues.”
He added that Australia was ahead of the majority of countries when it came to addressing the climate crisis.
“We have a very ambitious climate change policy, we are absolutely committed to effective action on climate change,” he said. “We are one of only a handful of countries around the world that will not just meet but exceed its emissions reduction targets agreed to in Kyoto by 2020.”
VIDEO: Bush fires and climate policy ‘two different issues’: Australian minister https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/01/23/b ... ister.html
The Kyoto Protocol, first adopted in 1997, is an international treaty setting out greenhouse gas limitations for industrialized countries.
“Right now our focus is on the emergency response, getting on top of those fires,” Cormann said, adding: “But once we are on the other side of all this there will be inquiries and processes to assist, how in the future a fire season of this intensity can be responded to in a better fashion.”
Cormann claimed that Australia was also on track to beat the emissions reduction targets it had agreed to in the Paris Agreement — a landmark deal adopted in 2015 that saw nations sign up to a framework to prevent global temperatures rising by any more than 2 degrees Celsius. Australia has committed to reducing its 2005 emissions levels by 26% before 2030.
“We are a large continent with a small population, so considering the emissions reduction targets we’ve committed to on a per capita basis we will be more than halving emissions and indeed we will be reducing the emissions intensity in our economy by two-thirds,” he said. “That is more ambitious than the U.K., than Canada, than New Zealand, than many other countries around the world.”
However, in a report published in November, the U.N. noted Australian policymakers had done little in terms of designing policies to help deliver on its own projections.
“With the re-election of Australia’s conservative Government in May, there has been no recent material change in Australian climate policy,” the organization said, adding that its 2030 target for slashing emissions looked “challenging.”
Meanwhile, the 2020 Climate Change Performance Index ranked Australia last out of 61 countries when looking at climate policy.
No plans to scrap coal
Phasing out fossil fuels like coal is considered vital in order to meet the Paris Agreement’s aim of keeping global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius. U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned last year that coal “remains a major threat in relation to climate change.”
But Cormann suggested on Thursday that Morrison’s government had no plans to reduce Australia’s production of coal.
“On a per capita basis we invest more than twice as much into renewable energy than Germany, than France, for example,” Cormann told CNBC. “So we are absolutely focused on boosting renewable energy — right now 25% of our energy supplies in our national electricity market comes from renewables, by 2030 that will be 50%. But coal, not just in Australia but around the world, will continue to be an important source of base load power.”
A U.N. report published in September found that Australia was the fifth biggest investor in renewable energy worldwide, spending $9.2 billion on renewables in 2018. China, the U.S. and Japan were the three biggest spenders. Germany, in eighth place, spent $6.3 billion on renewables capacity in 2018, while France, ranked 12th, spent $4.1 billion, according to the data.
Cormann claimed that some countries, like India, needed access to coal as a base load power source in order to boost the level of renewable energy in their grids.
“The question then becomes, in the context of global demand for coal, do you prefer us to use comparatively cleaner Australian coal with less ash content, less moisture, a higher energy intensity, or the comparatively dirtier coal from other sources?” he asked. “We would say using cleaner Australian coal actually helps reduce emissions compared to what the situation would be in the alternative.”
Australia was the second biggest exporter of coal in 2018, according to data from the International Energy Agency. A December report from the country’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science claimed coal exports added 70 billion Australian dollars ($48 billion) to the country’s economy last year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/23/austral ... ented.html
Voters who wisely chose ScoMo are relieved to see intelligence overpowering Greeny stupidity.
Australian minister claims PM Scott Morrison has led ‘historically unprecedented’ bush fire effort
Chloe Taylor PUBLISHED THU, JAN 23 20209:12 AM EST
Prime Minister Scott Morrison visits a fire damaged property on Kangaroo Island on January 8, 2020. David Mariuz | Pool | Getty Images
The Australian prime minister has received praise for his leadership in tackling devastating bush fires that have flared for months.
Protestors marched across most of Australia’s state capital cities earlier this month, calling for Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s resignation and slamming the government’s stance on climate change.
Morrison has also been forced to apologize to Australians for initially refusing to cut short an overseas family holiday in the U.S. state of Hawaii while the bush fires raged. His approval rating has taken a huge hit amid the crisis.
Speaking to CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday, Australian Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said in spite of the anger, the country’s Prime Minister had “led a historically unprecedented national bush fire response effort.”
Asked whether the crisis would provoke a change in the Australian government’s environmental policies, Cormann said the bush fires and climate policies were “two different issues.”
He added that Australia was ahead of the majority of countries when it came to addressing the climate crisis.
“We have a very ambitious climate change policy, we are absolutely committed to effective action on climate change,” he said. “We are one of only a handful of countries around the world that will not just meet but exceed its emissions reduction targets agreed to in Kyoto by 2020.”
VIDEO: Bush fires and climate policy ‘two different issues’: Australian minister https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/01/23/b ... ister.html
The Kyoto Protocol, first adopted in 1997, is an international treaty setting out greenhouse gas limitations for industrialized countries.
“Right now our focus is on the emergency response, getting on top of those fires,” Cormann said, adding: “But once we are on the other side of all this there will be inquiries and processes to assist, how in the future a fire season of this intensity can be responded to in a better fashion.”
Cormann claimed that Australia was also on track to beat the emissions reduction targets it had agreed to in the Paris Agreement — a landmark deal adopted in 2015 that saw nations sign up to a framework to prevent global temperatures rising by any more than 2 degrees Celsius. Australia has committed to reducing its 2005 emissions levels by 26% before 2030.
“We are a large continent with a small population, so considering the emissions reduction targets we’ve committed to on a per capita basis we will be more than halving emissions and indeed we will be reducing the emissions intensity in our economy by two-thirds,” he said. “That is more ambitious than the U.K., than Canada, than New Zealand, than many other countries around the world.”
However, in a report published in November, the U.N. noted Australian policymakers had done little in terms of designing policies to help deliver on its own projections.
“With the re-election of Australia’s conservative Government in May, there has been no recent material change in Australian climate policy,” the organization said, adding that its 2030 target for slashing emissions looked “challenging.”
Meanwhile, the 2020 Climate Change Performance Index ranked Australia last out of 61 countries when looking at climate policy.
No plans to scrap coal
Phasing out fossil fuels like coal is considered vital in order to meet the Paris Agreement’s aim of keeping global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius. U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned last year that coal “remains a major threat in relation to climate change.”
But Cormann suggested on Thursday that Morrison’s government had no plans to reduce Australia’s production of coal.
“On a per capita basis we invest more than twice as much into renewable energy than Germany, than France, for example,” Cormann told CNBC. “So we are absolutely focused on boosting renewable energy — right now 25% of our energy supplies in our national electricity market comes from renewables, by 2030 that will be 50%. But coal, not just in Australia but around the world, will continue to be an important source of base load power.”
A U.N. report published in September found that Australia was the fifth biggest investor in renewable energy worldwide, spending $9.2 billion on renewables in 2018. China, the U.S. and Japan were the three biggest spenders. Germany, in eighth place, spent $6.3 billion on renewables capacity in 2018, while France, ranked 12th, spent $4.1 billion, according to the data.
Cormann claimed that some countries, like India, needed access to coal as a base load power source in order to boost the level of renewable energy in their grids.
“The question then becomes, in the context of global demand for coal, do you prefer us to use comparatively cleaner Australian coal with less ash content, less moisture, a higher energy intensity, or the comparatively dirtier coal from other sources?” he asked. “We would say using cleaner Australian coal actually helps reduce emissions compared to what the situation would be in the alternative.”
Australia was the second biggest exporter of coal in 2018, according to data from the International Energy Agency. A December report from the country’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science claimed coal exports added 70 billion Australian dollars ($48 billion) to the country’s economy last year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/23/austral ... ented.html
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Re: ScoMo takes charge
yes, fires are a state responsibility. Not a federal responsibility.Juliar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:40 pmFor weeks now there has been a steady stream of critical commentary regarding Scott Morrison's and the Government's "mishandling" of the bush fire crisis.
The thing lacking from this commentary is exactly what they did wrong, and what exactly should have been done.
He went on holiday while the fires were burning? So what? The fires had been burning for months. What exactly could he have done if he had not gone on holiday?
If there was actually something he could have done, then this implicitly states that the fire services are inadequate or incompetent. If they rely on the PM to do their jobs, then there is something seriously wrong with the fire services.
Therefore, the criticism should be directed at them, not Scott Morrison.
However, from everything that has been reported, the fire services have responded as well as can be expected, and Morrison has had no part to play. What is clearly evident is that the criticism of Scott Morrison is nothing other than spite.
Would someone please explain how this constant shrieking and criticism is anything other than political point scoring?
No state had asked for assistance. The NSW premier has stated on numerous occasions how they have it under control
Right Wing is the Natural Progression.
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- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:56 am
Re: ScoMo takes charge
The Greeny controlled Labor Party and their clumsy amateurish Political Propaganda Arm GetUp! are in disarray with AnAl not knowing whether he is coming or going and so they are desperately looking for ANYTHING to try to distract attention away from the shambles they have become.
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- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 11:26 pm
Re: ScoMo takes charge
[youtube]http://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=575901089658486[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=575901089658486[/youtube]
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https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=575901089658486
http://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=575901089658486
Right Wing is the Natural Progression.
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