How the US election could affect Australia

[Rorschach]

How the US election could affect Australia
Belinda Tasker
Australian Associated Press
November 6, 2016

KEY ISSUES FOR AUSTRALIA'S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE US

1. REGIONAL SECURITY

The foreign policy "pivot" by the US to Asia under President Barack Obama tightened the bonds between American and Australia and experts believe Hillary Clinton would continue down this path as president. However while she was deeply involved in developing the strategy, James Brown, adjunct associate professor at the US Studies Centre at Sydney University, says it's unlikely to be her top priority. "It's going to be tough for her to push the rebalance because there will be many other things competing for her time, not only domestic issues, but Syria, Russia and North Korea," he said.

If Donald Trump moves into the White House, however, any change in America's policy towards Asia could be disruptive for Australia. "We would have to be more cautious in how we cooperate and collaborate with the US in Asia," Assoc Prof Brown says. "I think we would be more worried about the way the US would support us in any sort of security situation so it might lead us to take another look at our defence strategy." Mr Trump has criticised alliances the US has with Japan and South Korea, saying he would consider letting them develop nuclear weapons so they didn't have to rely on US protection against China and North Korea. Experts say if the US reduces its presence in the region under Trump, China could be more assertive and step up its controversial activities in the South China Sea, a key trade route for Australia and its neighbours.

2. TRADE

Neither Mrs Clinton nor Mr Trump are fans of the Trans Pacific Partnership, a 12-nation pact between countries including Australia, the US, New Zealand and Japan. While Mrs Trump initially called it the "gold standard" of trade deals while visiting Australia as secretary of state in 2012, she now opposes it because of potential risks to American jobs and wages. Mr Trump has branded the TPP a "catastrophe".

Mr Trump also wants to rip up international free trade deals signed by the US, replacing them with "really good ones" and slapping hefty tariffs on imported goods from China and Mexico. But the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics in September warned that would inflame tensions with China and disrupt the alliance with "longtime ally Australia". National Australia Bank economist Tom Taylor warns Australia would be in an "unenviable position" if tensions heighten between the US and China as both are major investors here and signatories to free trade deals with Canberra.

3. TERRORISM

Australia has close defence ties with the US, with the allies having fought alongside each other in every major conflict since World War One. It is also number three on Islamic State's list of Western target countries, behind the US and France, according to the US Homeland Security committee. Mr Trump claims Mrs Clinton and President Obama are to blame for creating ISIS, which he has vowed to " knock the hell out of". He's controversially advocated using waterboarding as a form of torture and wants US forces to "take out" the families of ISIS members. Experts are concerned that the application of such stark, and likely illegal policies, would be counterproductive to wider military efforts. "Australia will need to weigh very carefully a request from either a President Trump or Clinton to contribute further military forces to the Middle East," Assoc Prof James said.

Mrs Clinton wants to be "much smarter" about defeating ISIS by collaborating with Muslim nations and allies like Australia to dismantle networks that supply radical jihadists with money, weapons, and fighters. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull met US intelligence and security chiefs in Washington in September and came away upbeat about the possible battlefield defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq. However he warned the threat from lone-wolf terrorists in the US and Australia would get worse before it got better.

4. IMMIGRATION

There's been speculation that Australia is close to finalising talks with third countries, possibly including the US, about resettling 1800 refugees held on Manus Island and Nauru. Mr Turnbull in September announced Australia would take refugees from a resettlement centre in Costa Rica as part of a US program. Tens of thousands of people have fled Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras since 2014 amid rising violence, poverty and organised crime. Many flooded over the Mexican border and into the US, which was unprepared for the influx. Mr Trump's solution is to build a wall along the Mexican border, expel large numbers of illegal immigrants and slap a temporary ban on Muslim immigrants. In contrast, Mrs Clinton says it's unrealistic to shut down US borders and that comprehensive immigration reform is needed, including a path to full citizenship.

[Rorschach]

Hillary Clinton on Australia
November 6, 2016
Belinda Tasker, Australian Associated Press

HILLARY CLINTON NO FAIR-WEATHER FRIEND OF AUSTRALIA

Hillary Clinton has made three public visits to Australia in the past 20 years, during which time she forged a close bond with Julia Gillard, spoke warmly of the warm relationship enjoyed by the two nations, and declared a surprise dislike for Vegemite.

* On the US-Australia relationship

During a brief visit in 2012 as Secretary of State, Mrs Clinton reinforced the "indispensability" of the US-Australian partnership. "We are not fair-weather friends," she said.

That strong relationship would help both countries "foster strong, healthy relations with China", she said before making clear Australia did not need to choose between the US and China. "That kind of zero-sum thinking only leads to negative-sum results," she said.

* Word of warning

But two years later Mrs Clinton accused Australia of depending too much on China as a trading partner. "It's a mistake whether you're a country, or a company or an individual to put, as we say in the vernacular, all your eggs in the one basket," she told Fairfax while promoting her book Hard Choices.

* R.E.S.P.E.C.T

In her book, Mrs Clinton lashed out at the "outrageous sexism" endured by Julia Gillard as prime minister. The pair met several times while Ms Gillard was in office. Mrs Clinton praised Ms Gillard for her famous misogyny speech, noting how many women subjected to sexism would "just swallow it". "But she just went right at it and I respected that," she told the ABC.

* Gun control

On the campaign trail in October 2015, Mrs Clinton was asked whether she thought a strict Australian-style gun policy could be implemented in the US. "I think that's worth considering. I do not know enough detail to tell you how we would do it, or how would it work, but certainly your example is worth looking at," she said.

* Not a happy Vegemite

"I've never understood why you would ruin a perfectly good piece of bread with Vegemite," she joked at a forum with under 35s in Melbourne during a brief visit as secretary of state in 2010.

[Rorschach]

Donald Trump on Australia
November 6, 2016
Belinda Tasker, Australian Associated Press

TRUMP'S FAVOURITE AUSSIE SOCKS, FOOD AND SPORTSMAN

Billionaire presidential hopeful Donald Trump has had limited dealings with Australia, but he is a fan of our socks, lamb, Miss Universe winner Jennifer Hawkins and champion golfer Adam Scott.

* Going up

Back in 2004, Donald Trump starred in a TV ad for locally-made Holeproof Computer Socks, collecting $250,000 for his efforts. Filmed aboard his private jet, Trump complains on the phone to his stock broker about falling share prices and wants something that's going up. An Aussie bloke next to him recommends Holeproof Computer Socks, prompting Trump to tell his broker: "Go out and get some Holeproof Computer stocks. They never go down." Trump was keen for brand exposure in Australia as he wanted to build a golf course here.

* Beauty queen

Newcastle model Jennifer Hawkins dazzled him that same year when crowned Miss Universe, the renowned beauty pageant Trump co-owned. "Jennifer is the most beautiful Miss Universe I have seen in many, many years," he said. Hawkins appeared to leave a long-lasting impression, with Trump confiding in 2009 that she was "one of my all-time favourite Miss Universes".

* Trade advice

During his brief visit to Sydney and Melbourne in 2011 for a National Achievers Congress, Trump tweeted: "Australia is a beautiful country with terrific people who love America." And his advice? Australia should "screw" China by raising its commodity prices. "One of the reasons I love Australia is because you're selling them all sorts of s***," he said. He also praised "your financial genius", referring to then treasurer Wayne Swan's selection as world finance minister of the year.

* Golfing great

The Republican hopeful also became a big fan of golfer Adam Scott after the Australian's nail-biting one-shot victory at the billionaire's Blue Monster course in Florida in March. Trump described Scott during a campaign speech as the "handsome kid from Australia, one of the greatest golfers in the world".

* Fire up the barbie

In 2010 Trump backed a campaign led by former Aussie Rules player Sam Kekovich urging citizens of the world to unite and enjoy a lamb barbie on Australia Day. "I think it's a great idea. I would hire you so fast. With you by my side, we could change the world," Trump told Kekovich.

[Neferti]

sorry ... re-posted in the other thread!

[mantra]

There was a prediction by some political expert just before Abbott won, although I can't remember his name now, but he said that globally there was going to be a huge shift to the extreme right. I used to think Abbott fell into this category, but since Turnbull ousted him - Abbott and Howard look like moderates in comparison.

The US apparently has had the biggest turnout of voters in history and scarily Trump's prospects of winning look good.

As if we haven't already got enough greedy capitalists in Australia - a Trump win will exacerbate this. The US sneezes and we supply the tissues. The poor will become obviously poorer and the rich will become wealthier. Since Turnbull has become leader there has already been a huge decline in social services which is seriously affecting the most needy. Although he will pretend that he's an advocate for equal rights, Turnbull will embrace Trump's leadership and his true colours will become obvious to us all.

Those with money and power have no understanding at all of what it's like for people at the bottom of the heap - nor do they care.

Australia will embrace America's dog eat dog mentality rule. That's fine for those strong enough to take advantage of a new class system where lots of money or licking boots determines whether you live or die, barely survive or thrive. Humanity and human rights will no longer be a consideration, although Turnbull is pretending it's important for the moment.

It's all about the corporates and their political power and quest for obscene profits. Trump believes you are stupid if you pay tax - Turnbull also believes in corporate welfare. Cut $50 billion from public schools and hospitals and give it to big business. This will have a horrific flow on effect here. Someone has to pay and it won't be those who can afford it.

Bring back Abbott. If he stood up to Putin - he might have the guts to stand up to Trump if he wins.

[AnaTom]

.
I think Trump is a nice guy.

If nothing else, he could very likely temperate the world.

And lots of people wont have to die to pay for or make it happen.

If nothing else, this a vote is to politically die for.

[mantra]

Trump might seem like a nice guy to some people, but he is abhorrent to others.

Something like $35 billion was wiped off the share market last night because of the unpredictability Trump might bring to our trade relations.

[IQS.RLOW]

[mantra]

Some of Trump's promises might be OK in theory, but putting them into practice could become a major problem for us. Who are our allies - China or the US? If Trump imposes this 45% tariff on Chinese imports - they mightn't take it sitting down.

Now that we've leased Darwin Port to China this could put us in direct conflict with the US military. We've promised America they can use their Darwin base as a refuge in the event of military conflict with Asia. If Trump imposes this tariff - I can see the US forces not being permitted to use Darwin Port and we will be forced to choose sides.

[Rorschach]

WE live in interesting times...