New Gillard Plan

[Rorschach]

CANBERRA OBSERVED:
Prime Minister Gillard seeks to make her mark on history
by national correspondent
News Weekly, August 18, 2012

Julia Gillard is transitioning her prime ministership from trying to win a second term of office to marking out her place in Labor history.

With Labor’s time running out, Ms Gillard is looking to the long game. It is about writing the grand narrative, rather than worrying about the nitty-gritty of day-to-day politics.

In part, this is to be achieved through legislation ushering in a National Disability Insurance Scheme (NIDS).

Expensive, uncosted, likely to result in the mushrooming of a new federal bureaucracy, but probably ultimately necessary in some form, the NDIS is designed to be on Ms Gillard’s political epitaph along with the carbon tax, the historic milestone of being Australia’s first female prime minister, and the thousands of Julia Gillard memorial school halls.

Ms Gillard will be campaigning on the NDIS from now until she is no longer in politics as she seeks to establish her Labor reform credentials alongside those of former Labor greats who established iconic programs such as universal superannuation, Medicare, and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.

But the cost of the grand schemes is a major concern, and runs completely contrary to the government’s stated goal of returning the Budget to surplus.

For its part, the Opposition is not opposed to the NDIS, which is a national scheme designed to provide support and funding to people with disabilities and their full-time carers.

However, the Coalition is so far reluctant to sign a blank check for the Labor Government because the cost of a much more generous federal scheme, replacing the ad hoc state-based support systems of support, is likely to be extremely prohibitive.

The Productivity Commission estimates that the cost of an NDIS will be $7 billion a year on top of the money already being spent by the states and territories. The Productivity Commission’s report into the NDIS did not specify where the money would come from.

At the last Budget, the Gillard Government committed $1 billion to support the first stage of an NDIS to set up a new agency and to conduct some trials. But this will not lead very far at all.

As Henry Ergas from The Australian wrote recently: “Once the trials are over, thousands of disabled Australians will therefore be back where they are today — struggling, and all too often failing, to make ends meet. According to recent estimates, 45 per cent of people with a disability are in or near poverty, a rate almost three times that in the general population.”

Federal politicians of all party persuasions are extremely well versed in the awful tribulations of people living with someone with a disability.

Public meetings, town-hall meetings and talk-back radio are often filled with anguished parents of a son or daughter with a mental or physical disability as they seek to tell their story of seeming never-ending care without respite, with minimal help and with no prospect of relief as they get older.

The stories are often raw, and filled with genuine pain and emotion, and the penny has finally dropped that there is a section of the Australian community that has slipped through the cracks of the system.

However, the recent meeting in Canberra with the states, territories and federal governments failed to achieve a breakthrough on the NDIS.

The deal offered by Ms Gillard predictably resulted in the remaining Labor governments (South Australia and Tasmania) declaring their support for the Federal Government’s scheme, with the Coalition states rejecting it.

Queensland Premier Campbell Newman put forward the idea of a levy, similar to the Medicare levy, to help pay for the scheme — a proposal that was rejected by the Prime Minister.

Opposition leader Tony Abbott, ever cautious not to get wedged on a tax, also ruled out a levy.

This was probably a hasty decision and pushes Mr Abbott further into a corner on bringing the Budget back into balance.

The Federal Government will have to take the lead on taking care of individuals with disabilities and their family carers. A country as wealthy as Australia should be able to afford to support these people rather than waste so much money on myriad other superfluous programs.

But the scheme will require a serious debate and mature choices about where current Budget moneys are allocated.

This is not likely to occur this side of the federal election.

In the meantime, Ms Gillard will be able to claim credit for theoretically introducing an NDIS in Australia, putting her alongside other the Labor greats such as Whitlam, Hawke and Keating.

Unfortunately, the damage she is doing to the Labor Party in the interim is such that the party risks falling into disarray after the next election, with some predicting it will take a decade or more to recover from her leadership.

[Rorschach]

You gotta hand it to that megalomaniac Rudd.
He never takes no for an answer.

Rudd messing with Gillard's head
September 9, 2012
Michelle Grattan
Political editor of The Age

KEVIN RUDD tweeted on Friday: ''Addressed about 900 students at Cannon Hill Anglican College on resilience.'' He mentioned a Paralympian. But one's mind immediately leapt to the man himself. Even as his leadership prospects have moved into eclipse - whether permanently or temporarily - the former prime minister is waving a banner emblazoned ''I'm here if you want me''. Ah, no thanks Kevin.

Last week, as Julia Gillard promoted her education ''crusade'', Rudd was cutting a swath through schools, talking about values, tweeting his progress, and noting improvements made possible by his government's ''building the education revolution'' spending. The Gonski school funding plan that Gillard is pushing wasn't his focus. He also had the Queensland Premier, Campbell Newman, in his sights, attacking state public service cuts.

There is no other interpretation of Rudd's visibility than the obvious. He has not given up the quest. It's an ego thing. A big, big ego thing. Yet critics can't make a case against his activities. Shouldn't a backbencher be touring schools? Isn't it desirable for a Labor MP to defend his constituents' jobs and services, when the federal government wants to cast Tony Abbott as a Newman-in-waiting? Still, it is clear that the man who once boasted ''it will be fun to play with [John Howard's] mind'' is now messing with Gillard's head. And Gillard is on a Crusade and making promises left right and centre to shore up internal support. "Look at me, I have a plan."

In pitching against Newman, Rudd would hope to be setting himself up for the future. Labor sees a ray of brightness in the public backlash to the cuts. The ALP has been in a parlous position in Queensland but it thinks it is just possible that disillusionment against the state government could be mobilised to help it federally. And here's Rudd silently saying, who better to do that than a PM who is a Queenslander. Maybe Rudd could go back to state politics under his old monicker of Dr Death.

Another interesting development was The Sydney Morning Herald report last week that Gillard has set up an election policy committee. Yep, for the ALP, the election campaign is on. hence the recent spate of attacks on Abbott's character. The story quoted some insiders saying this was part of preparations that would give Gillard the option of an early election (though others strongly discounted that). The likelihood of Gillard wanting to bring the election forward seems minimal. Why would she, when Labor would be trounced? And when to do so would breach her agreements with the crossbenchers - important because that would reinforce her ''untrustworthy'' image?

But, whether it's there by chance or design, any speculation that she might call an early poll potentially reduces an advantage she's had over Rudd. Worried caucus members have feared that if he were restored, they would quickly be on the hustings, facing defeat sooner rather than later. The question is - would Gillard go to an early election in order to stave off Rudd and losing the leadership?

With a slight polling improvement and now a positive Labor agenda to talk about, Gillard must be considerably more confident she can keep Rudd at bay. But she also knows she is at the mercy of those polls. A difficult period for her will be November, at the end of the parliamentary sitting, the traditional political killing season.

November 1 is the scheduled publication date of a book by Maxine McKew, a Rudd loyalist, who won Bennelong in 2007 from Howard, then lost it in 2010. The synopsis of Tales From The Political Trenches states: ''McKew counters the prevailing orthodoxy that Julia Gillard was a reluctant conscript to the prime ministership - a deputy who was forced to move against a chaotic and dysfunctional Rudd.'' The book will be a nicely timed grenade for the Rudd camp, especially if the polling news is grim.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/ ... 25kwh.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Rorschach]

I note McKew has just dumped on Gillard (in her new book) from a great height.

Re the following article from the AGE, need I say more, some so-called journalists just don't get it and colouring failure as success in attempts to get Gillard over the line is just plain pathetic.

Gillard's speech impediment, or why the PM is looking a bit silly
September 15, 2012
Michael Short

THE definition of silliness, it is said, is doing the same thing over and over again and thinking you will get a different outcome. Julia Gillard is looking pretty damn silly.

The Prime Minister keeps plugging away, embroiled in the 24/7 news cycle, and yet her government's approval ratings remain abysmal.

She appears to believe doggedness and resilience will get her through, but unless she changes her modus operandi, unless she rises above the fray and gains some gravitas and broad authority, she is evidently facing a loss of historic proportions at the coming election. Love the way rusted-on journos desperately try to give advice to help. Like Mike Carlton

She looks particularly silly because she actually has a robust story to tell. Really? She has all the ingredients of what Paul Keating liked to call a political narrative. Yes, Keating was swept from office in 1996, but that was after Labor had been in power for well over a decade and after he had won an election in which he was widely seen to have little hope.

In beating John Hewson in 1993, Keating reversed a position similar to that in which Gillard now finds herself. One might not agree with Gillard's agenda, That is so true but she has introduced measures that permit her to present herself as a reformer, a thoughtful legislator. That is so false. What is thoughtful about introducing legislation she said she wouldn't. Or reforms that are pointless unnecessary and hugely expensive.

These include action on climate change, unwanted except by alarmists sharing the revenue of the mining boom with the broader community, already happens prospective restructuring of secondary education funding to help the most disadvantaged students, the National Disability Insurance Scheme backed by both major parties and a historic and massive infrastructure project with the National Broadband Network. Way too expensive for what it offers etc, etc, etc.

All of this has happened against the backdrop of an unambiguously strong set of economic indicators that are the envy of most other industrial nations. On the back of the previous Coalition governments policies and strong fiscal measures, a mining boom and strong banking sector Australia's economic growth has been consistently vigorous, while other nations have been limping along, many of them in recession. Unemployment is sitting close to 5 per cent, while other nations are well into double figures. Personally I think that figure (5%) is wrong.

Youth unemployment in some parts of Europe is, tragically, higher than 50 per cent. Inflation here is tamed. Australia's public debt is one of the lowest in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the rich nations' club. We have debt over our heads and Labor has created it. Otherwise we are just doing ok, when the other countries come out of their funk we will still just be doing ok.

The federal budget is in balance; many other wealthy nations are running chronic, massive deficits that are adding to already bloated debt levels and further shackling economic growth.

Beyond all that, Tony Abbott and his team have largely failed to present ideas, let alone policies. Rubbish, go and do your homework and puhlease don't spread the crap re policy releases before an election we are all sick of it. Yes, Abbott is described as one of the most effective opposition leaders in contemporary history, but negativity will become less and less potent as the election approaches. You mean the government will stop being negative, will stop obsessing over and personally attacking Abbott, will come up with positive polices that don't tax us into our graves? Unless the Coalition starts presenting costed policies soon, it risks a community backlash. Further, there appears to be widespread, fundamental concern about Abbott's character, a well of distrust and dislike. Oh dear you had to jump on the bandwagon didn't you.

Given all of this - a strong legislative record, a shining set of economic numbers and an Opposition Leader who generates fear and loathing in many - you mean fear and loathing in progressive Leftards like yourself? it is amazing that Gillard and her government are travelling so poorly. It is testament either to the ineptitude of the Prime Minister and her senior colleagues, or faulty tactics - or both. Or the FACT that they are just a BAD Government.

Gillard this week took time out to mourn her father. It is a terribly sad and jarring time for her. Let's hope she used this break away from politics to recalibrate her political persona and change her ways. Julia did change her ways when she became PM.

There is something demeaning about political leaders being all over the news every day. Wearing fluorescent jackets and hard hats is not a bad idea from time to time - it as, after all, good to get out of Canberra and see the economy in action - but they should not be a regular part of a prime ministerial wardrobe.

Gillard might do well to line up a few lunches with Keating and his predecessor, Bob Hawke. She clearly needs better advice, and these eminences grise would provide some sound guidance. Hawke is senile and Paul too arrogant.

In their day, they both would have made much of the elements of the tale Gillard could tell. But they'd have been lying too.

It is also fair to suggest the prime ministerial office is lacking wordsmiths. Keating had a cracker in Don Watson, who crafted some powerful speeches. Gough Whitlam, himself a fine orator, received added shine from one of Australia's great speechwriters, Graham Freudenberg.

Gillard needs to use the unfortunate interlude that has been her time of initial grief for her father as a political circuit-breaker. Many admire her sheer resilience, but her political performance has been woeful. She can hardly do any worse, although her deputy, Wayne Swan, makes her look positively eloquent and skilled. Amen to that, yet you still remain rusted-on.

I say all this not because I necessarily support either Gillard or Abbott; bullshit I am a swinging voter. Ah ha.. Left to Centre-Left no doubt, but always Progressive. My interest is in having a decent, ideas-driven political contest, rather than the endless slanging match that passes for politics at the moment. Then chat to labor and tell them to actually answer questions for a change and get rid of Albanese.

This Prime Minister, and all prime ministers, should try to rise above the often tawdry daily political battle. Gillard is debasing her own currency; she should speak less, and when she does speak she should have something well-crafted and substantial to say. But this is the way of the new Labor breed.

There is an elegant narrative waiting to be woven. Instead, we are being given a tacky comic book. bullshit... oh and good to see you are a swinging voter

Michael Short is editor of The Zone. Twitter: @shortmsgs

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politi ... z26UOeEM3y" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[AnimalMother]

Ah, the good old Fairfax press, ever so eager to push the Labor Party and the latest politically correct cause.

I'm glad I gave up reading their crap around fifteen years ago. I'm looking forward to their financial bankruptcy, which will likely follow their moral one.