Hehehehehe
Rather, blame Newspoll, Morgan, Galaxy & AC Nielsen. Possum is a data miner, no Tassie data to mine! There is a polster in Tassie but with sample sizes typically of 200-400 not worth really considering.
Poll Tracking
Forum rules
Don't poop in these threads. This isn't Europe, okay? There are rules here!
Don't poop in these threads. This isn't Europe, okay? There are rules here!
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Jovial Monk
Re: Poll Tracking
Newspoll 55:45 dead cat bounce for Truffles re satisfaction/dissatisfaction
see it here
Essential Research here.
1/3 of Coalition voters think Truffles should be replaced
Both polls just recording movements within margin of error (MoE) the sampling error. Neither were huge samples either.
I think there is something internally inconsistent in thew Newspoll: the slight recovery in Turdbull's satisfaction ratings and most wanting someone else as leader. Next Newspoll will show a biggish move back to Labor.
see it here
Essential Research here.
1/3 of Coalition voters think Truffles should be replaced
Both polls just recording movements within margin of error (MoE) the sampling error. Neither were huge samples either.
I think there is something internally inconsistent in thew Newspoll: the slight recovery in Turdbull's satisfaction ratings and most wanting someone else as leader. Next Newspoll will show a biggish move back to Labor.
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Jovial Monk
Re: Poll Tracking
Am I good or am I good? Newpoll shows 3% lift in primary support for Labor washing into TPP of 57:43. Essential Research shows the same.
http://www.mumble.com.au/pdfs/federal/2 ... ollall.pdf
For once, just ONCE it looks like a Labor govt will be able to make major reforms and stay in govt afterwards.
Curtin, even in the darkest days of WWII, was thinking about postwar policies. The huge migration of the late 40s and 50's, the Snowy Mountain Scheme to employ the migrants and the demobilising servicemen and negotiated through a hostile Senate Bills that made the Reserve Bank answerable to govt (was still the CBA back then and Curtin remembered well its role in preventing Sculling spend to reduce the severity of the Great Depression.)
Curtin died in office and Chifley through ridiculous policies like bank nationalisation lost the '49 election and the long sleep began. Whitlam came into power in '72 and made major changes, big cut to tariffs, laid miles and miles and miles of sewerage pipes so raw sewerage no longer ran down the streets etc etc but ran a rather undisciplined cabinet (Rudd must have learned from that and runs the most disciplined govt ever) and lost in '75.
The Fraser govt then bumbled along until they got bundled out by Hawke. Keating especially made huge reforms to our economy but a recession that led in turn to a "jobless recovery" (Rudd has made sure that will not be the case with the GFC) saw him lose to Howard who had been a useless Treasurer to Fraser.
Howard & Costello benefitted from the recovery finally creating jobs and enough inflation that Howard could return bracket creep and pretend it was a tax cut to offset the GST. They then coasted on the back of the mining boom. No major reforms and while Fib supporters say Whitlam was a reckless spender Howard made Whitlam look like a miser: $400Bn wasted 2001-7.
But Rudd spent big and early, guaranteed bank wholesale funding and we never suffered a bank failure or 10% unemployment unlike many other places. He is in a strong position and will easily win the next election and by the time of the election after that the GFC will be but a memory and budgets will be in surplus with little govt debt left, so the next two elections should be a doddle--the Fibs and Nuts will be in dire straits with their high vote from the pre-boomer generation gone to the grave with the pre-boomers.
From Possum:
hehehehe in comments:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/20 ... -the-cprs/
The coalition is on the nose more and more with female voters. With older voters dying off over the next 15 years the coalitiuon cannot afford to put women offside but that is just what they are doing. Minor party status impossible for the Fibs? Really? They seem intent on going there!
Hummm, 16% PPM for Truffles, less than half of Coalition supporters want Truffles to lead them! He is still deep in negative approval figures (and this has proved fatal for other Op Leaders) with movements within MoE in sat/dissat. No policies have been developed, Truffles is still just opposing everything for oppositions sake. They will lose 20 seats at the next election.
http://www.mumble.com.au/pdfs/federal/2 ... ollall.pdf
For once, just ONCE it looks like a Labor govt will be able to make major reforms and stay in govt afterwards.
Curtin, even in the darkest days of WWII, was thinking about postwar policies. The huge migration of the late 40s and 50's, the Snowy Mountain Scheme to employ the migrants and the demobilising servicemen and negotiated through a hostile Senate Bills that made the Reserve Bank answerable to govt (was still the CBA back then and Curtin remembered well its role in preventing Sculling spend to reduce the severity of the Great Depression.)
Curtin died in office and Chifley through ridiculous policies like bank nationalisation lost the '49 election and the long sleep began. Whitlam came into power in '72 and made major changes, big cut to tariffs, laid miles and miles and miles of sewerage pipes so raw sewerage no longer ran down the streets etc etc but ran a rather undisciplined cabinet (Rudd must have learned from that and runs the most disciplined govt ever) and lost in '75.
The Fraser govt then bumbled along until they got bundled out by Hawke. Keating especially made huge reforms to our economy but a recession that led in turn to a "jobless recovery" (Rudd has made sure that will not be the case with the GFC) saw him lose to Howard who had been a useless Treasurer to Fraser.
Howard & Costello benefitted from the recovery finally creating jobs and enough inflation that Howard could return bracket creep and pretend it was a tax cut to offset the GST. They then coasted on the back of the mining boom. No major reforms and while Fib supporters say Whitlam was a reckless spender Howard made Whitlam look like a miser: $400Bn wasted 2001-7.
But Rudd spent big and early, guaranteed bank wholesale funding and we never suffered a bank failure or 10% unemployment unlike many other places. He is in a strong position and will easily win the next election and by the time of the election after that the GFC will be but a memory and budgets will be in surplus with little govt debt left, so the next two elections should be a doddle--the Fibs and Nuts will be in dire straits with their high vote from the pre-boomer generation gone to the grave with the pre-boomers.
From Possum:
hehehehe in comments:
Questions were also asked about the CPRSAnd Alex every time they let People Skills near a TV camera the demographic gets more certain of its feelings and the baton is past to future generations. A friend told me the other day that People Skills now scares her 4 year old daughter more effectively than Severus Snape. The good news for the coalition is that Joe Hockey makes the same 4 year old giggle.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/20 ... -the-cprs/
The coalition is on the nose more and more with female voters. With older voters dying off over the next 15 years the coalitiuon cannot afford to put women offside but that is just what they are doing. Minor party status impossible for the Fibs? Really? They seem intent on going there!
Hummm, 16% PPM for Truffles, less than half of Coalition supporters want Truffles to lead them! He is still deep in negative approval figures (and this has proved fatal for other Op Leaders) with movements within MoE in sat/dissat. No policies have been developed, Truffles is still just opposing everything for oppositions sake. They will lose 20 seats at the next election.
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Leftofcentresalterego
Poll tracking
I have this recurring dream where Turnbull gets stabbed to death by an insane bloke in a monk's outfit (not, not JM 
) who then steals his leadership.
A premonition maybe?
) who then steals his leadership.A premonition maybe?
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Jovial Monk
Re: Poll Tracking
hahahahahaha yup the Mad Monk is clearly positioning himself for a run at the Leadership.
They should have put him in first to kick heads until the party accepted the defeat (which they still don't) got rid of lots of deadwood and brought in fresh talent. THEN they could have put Attabull in as plausible alternative PM--that would have been a feasible one-term strategy.
As it is, Attabull has shot his bolt, no fresh new blood is coming in, just party hacks, former staffers like Biggs in Mayo, they still have no new policy, have pissed of a lot of the female vote and will get THRASHED at the next election. And the preboomers will keep on dying off and taking their high coalition vote to the grave with them.
Fucking hopeless.
They should have put him in first to kick heads until the party accepted the defeat (which they still don't) got rid of lots of deadwood and brought in fresh talent. THEN they could have put Attabull in as plausible alternative PM--that would have been a feasible one-term strategy.
As it is, Attabull has shot his bolt, no fresh new blood is coming in, just party hacks, former staffers like Biggs in Mayo, they still have no new policy, have pissed of a lot of the female vote and will get THRASHED at the next election. And the preboomers will keep on dying off and taking their high coalition vote to the grave with them.
Fucking hopeless.
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Jovial Monk
Re: Poll Tracking
Latest Essential Research’s TPP: 59-41. Last week: 56-44.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ ... 030809.pdf
And Utegate about to be revisited!
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ ... 030809.pdf
And Utegate about to be revisited!
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Leftofcentresalterego
Poll tracking
This is normally JM's forte'.
I don't have the figures at hand but I have heard that no previous government has ever achieved such a level of popularity for such an extended period after first being elected. The opposition meanwhile, has sucked so badly in the polls for so long that I get the feeling that they may be in danger of not merely being reduced to a rump at the next election (although they seem to be in that territory now ) but of actually falling to true minor party status.
Quite amusing really
I don't have the figures at hand but I have heard that no previous government has ever achieved such a level of popularity for such an extended period after first being elected. The opposition meanwhile, has sucked so badly in the polls for so long that I get the feeling that they may be in danger of not merely being reduced to a rump at the next election (although they seem to be in that territory now
) but of actually falling to true minor party status.Quite amusing really
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Jovial Monk
Re: Poll Tracking
It is so bad (good!) that another Essential at 60:40 or another Newspoll 55:45 is greeted with merely a yawn. The remnants of the Rodent's govt are a rabble with no vision, no ideas, no idea and lousy PR/media management. (Rudd is excellent at all of these, his speech at Paul Kelly's book launch got Howard & Costello to screech a protest and Truffles to screech in sympathy, reminding the voters of just why they loathed Howard.)
And there is still that demographic trap awaiting the Fibs/Nuts: the pre boomers dying off and taking their high coalition vote with them to the grave. They have to get their act together real soon, get some vision and policy out there, some decent tactics, get some unity instead of the present internecine warfare or Lefty's minor party status prediction might well be true after the election after next.
Heh, I see the cretin who replied to your post has no idea about politics, demographics etc.
And there is still that demographic trap awaiting the Fibs/Nuts: the pre boomers dying off and taking their high coalition vote with them to the grave. They have to get their act together real soon, get some vision and policy out there, some decent tactics, get some unity instead of the present internecine warfare or Lefty's minor party status prediction might well be true after the election after next.
Heh, I see the cretin who replied to your post has no idea about politics, demographics etc.
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