Election 2013

[Rorschach]

Hmmm lots of denial there IQS.
Denial in the face of facts and reality must have a clinical designation.

[Mattus]

15% swing? Personal followings rarely amount to more than 2-3%, nice to have but not that huge.

I would be genuinely interested to know where the figures of 2 - 3 % for the local candidate have come from, I'm having trouble finding any data on that myself. I would agree that the party has more impact on voter decision making than the local candidate, but I'm sure it's not as trivial as 2 - 3%. Although I can't lay my hands on it now, I seem to recall a survey showing 2 out of 3 voters would rank the party affiliation as more important in heir decision making than the quality of the local candidate, but that means 1 in 3 vote the candidate over the party!

I would have thought that would be even more influential where the local candidate is a high profile front bencher being replaced by a complete nobody, as is the case here. So yeah, a 15% swing is not out of he question.

But I think one or two seats could fall to Labor in WA, going by reports from people living there.

Which two? Are the people in those electorates?

I can't believe that Hasluck will fall. It's been a bit of a promiscuous seat in the past but Wyatt, australia's first aborignal member of parliament has been very popular there. What's more, labor didn't even have a candidate in Hasluck when Gilliard first called he election. So it just ain't going to happen. Hasluck stays liberal.

Canning and Swan would each require a near 3% swing away from the incumbent to fall to labor. Steve Irons should hold Swan. Don Randall's "Gay-BC" and "pussy whipped" gaffes are unfortunately probably only going to win him votes in Canning. Though I would love to see him out on his arse. Unfortunately the ALP haven't followed up on the gaffes, and again haven't even selected an ALP candidate to run in Swan or Canning until relatively recently.

I think more likely is that Perth will swing away from labor with Stephen Smith not re-contesting. Alannah McTiernan is a great local candidate, but has a long and mixed history in WA politics.

Most West Australians I know have conceded it will be another Labor collapse at he election, and are more interested in the Liberal vs National side show in O'Conner and Durack. Nationals could very well be the new opposition in WA.

[Neferti]

[Jovial_Monk]

Mattus asked:

would be genuinely interested to know where the figures of 2 - 3 % for the local candidate have come from, I'm having trouble finding any data on that myself. I would agree that the party has more impact on voter decision making than the local candidate, but I'm sure it's not as trivial as 2 - 3%.

Basically, it comes from 40 years of election watching. True, it can be more like 10% for an MP who has worked his electorate well for decades.

Re WA, I was told Swan definitely and even Hasluck. I am not from WA so wouldn’t stake my life on the result on 7/9.

[Jovial_Monk]

Thanks for the cartoon, Naffy! I have quite a collection in the Sand Pit, will ask Annie to move them into the Election 2013 subforum after the election.

[IQS.RLOW]

Mattus asked:

would be genuinely interested to know where the figures of 2 - 3 % for the local candidate have come from, I'm having trouble finding any data on that myself. I would agree that the party has more impact on voter decision making than the local candidate, but I'm sure it's not as trivial as 2 - 3%.

Basically, it comes from 40 years of election watching. True, it can be more like 10% for an MP who has worked his electorate well for decades.

Re WA, I was told Swan definitely and even Hasluck. I am not from WA so wouldn’t stake my life on the result on 7/9.

I wouldn't be too sure about Swan.
Whitely was very active in the community and most resent parachuting union parasites.

Ask Carpenter how that worked for him at a state level.

[Black Orchid]

Former Labor leader Mark Latham says Tony Abbott must have been drunk to find sex appeal in a "plain" Liberal colleague.

Mr Abbott was hoping to have buried his gaffe, writing it off on Wednesday as a "daggy dad" moment, but his reference to the "sex appeal" of Liberal candidate for Lindsay Fiona Scott has led to further controversy.

Mr Latham told Fairfax Media in Melbourne he thought Ms Scott was plain and Mr Abbott must have been wearing "beer goggles" when highlighting her sex appeal.

"She's a rather plain, ordinary-looking woman," Mr Latham said.

"(Mr Abbott) must have had the beer goggles on because she's not that good a sort and I'd rather have an aspirant for the prime ministership who is a good judge when it comes to checking out the good sorts as many Australian men do."

It was then Mr Latham who copped the flack.

"He engaged in what seems to have been some really outrageous and obscene behaviour ... and it's totally inappropriate," Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey told Sky News of Mr Latham's comments.

Earlier on Wednesday, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd weighed into the issue, saying there was no place for sexism in modern Australia.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/election/a/-/a ... eal-gaffe/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Labor's last 'messiah' still hasn't learned to keep his mouth shut. They sure know how to pick them

[Jovial_Monk]

[Rorschach]

Seems the following is just too much for most labor supporters to understand.

[Neferti]

I am not voting at all this election. Doesn’t stop me discussing the issues, moron!

And Abbott is just as bad. Would be a disaster as PM, especially as related to the economy as I have stated many times before.

Illegal not to vote... you wouldn't do anything illegal would you?

No it's not.
It's not illegal not to vote. Its an offence not get your name marked off the roll, doesn't mean you have to fill in a ballot paper though.

I'd hardly call a $20 fine for not having your name marked off the Roll an "offence". It is, however, an offence to NOT put yourself on the roll when you turn 18 ... a much larger fine, $150 (I think). That is the compulsory part ... getting on the roll in the first instance!

If Monk has decided not to front up and get his name marked off (in PROTEST at Gillard's stabbing) and to pay the $20 fine, good for him.

I did that once for a local ACT by-election. There was no Liberal candidate (I rang to find out), so I decided to "test" the system and, sure enough, a couple of weeks later got a letter from the Electoral Commission warning me that if I didn't pay the 20 buck fine I would be taken to Court and it could cost me $50. I wrote a cheque.

Then there were the many times I turned up to vote and found my name was NOT on the Roll ... I had NOT moved house. So I couldn't vote without filling out a bunch of papers. I told them to stuff it. Federal Elections I think are very important, the ACT Elections are like voting for the local Council ... a waste of time.