Abbott what next?

[Rorschach]

meanwhile back on topic Poxy troll..

Coalition must make room for Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott
The Australian
December 7, 2015 12:00AM
Greg Sheridan
Foreign Editor

Malcolm Turnbull needs Tony Abbott. He would best serve his government’s interests if he persuaded Abbott to come back to the cabinet.

The surely inevitable demise of Mal Brough might offer that opportunity, even though Brough is not a member of cabinet. Abbott could replace Brough and the position could be elevated to cabinet.

On the other hand, it may be too early for such a bold move. But the success of centre-right politics may yet depend on a reconciliation between Abbott and Turnbull. For in the long run, Abbott also certainly needs Turnbull.

In the medium term, one of Turnbull’s most mortal dangers is on the Right: the restiveness in Queensland, the defection of Ian Macfarlane, the agitation of the Nationals and the ongoing arguments about Abbott’s legacy and the treatment of him in his last days as prime minister.

At the same time, Abbott needs Turnbull if he is to have a constructive future. He can only come back to a big position in Australian politics if he commits himself to working constructively for the re-election of Turnbull as Prime Minister.

As John Howard has many times pointed out, the Liberal Party can succeed only when it embraces both the liberal and conservative streams in Aus­tralian politics.

Turnbull and Abbott are the two most substantial figures in Liberal politics over the past decade. One has come to embody the small “l” liberal strain in the party, the other the conservative strain.

The two have known each other for nearly 40 years and the relationship has a surplus of scar tissue, dating back to their mutual opposition during the republican debate.

When Turnbull lost the Liberal leadership in 2009, Abbott would have liked him to leave politics ­altogether. Now that Abbott has lost the prime ministership, Turnbull would like Abbott to leave politics altogether.

It was Howard who understood the Liberal Party would be stronger with Turnbull in the tent. In the long years in opposition, Turnbull argued persuasively that it was a signal strength of the Liberal Party that if you identified with his tradition in politics, if you liked Turnbull, you got him as part of the Abbott package.

This argument now applies with equal force to Abbott. Turnbull may never have peace with the conservative side of centre-right politics unless he harnesses Abbott’s formidable strengths, and formidable political skills, in the service of his government.

Howard advised Abbott as prime minister to make Turnbull the treasurer in his government. Turnbull was potentially the government’s most eloquent communicator, he had traction with constituencies beyond those of other Liberal heavyweights. Harnessing him fully for the main purposes of the government would have been the best solution.

Exactly the same considerations should apply to Turnbull’s treatment of Abbott. Turnbull has spoken well of Abbott.

If some of Turnbull’s senior colleagues and closest supporters would speak with as much dis­cipline about ­Abbott, there would be less ­trouble with Liberal ­conservatives.

It may be too soon and the feelings too raw, but the sooner these two Liberal lions can make peace the better for everyone.

Turnbull and Abbott need each other. Their party needs both of them. And the nation needs a successful Liberal-Nationals government, attuned to economic ­reform and strong on national ­security.

It is a great thing for Turnbull that he is doing so well in the polls. His early performance as Prime Minister has been very good, but his position is much more fragile than it seems.

The government has not yet taken any tough economic decisions, but Australia’s circumstances surely require this. Turnbull’s political circumstance in some ways resembles Kevin Rudd’s. His legitimacy rests ­entirely on the polls. Newspoll is his base. If the polls ever go sour, the problems within the centre-right of Australian politics will multiply, perhaps explosively.

Although Turnbull has been deft and disciplined in his policy positioning, it is still not clear that he is conservative enough to run centre-right politics in Australia.

Australia is unusual in that our centre-right politics has not fractured. But it has come close. Howard’s defeat in the 1987 election owed a lot to the push by Joh ­Bjelke-Petersen to run for prime minister from Queensland. Pauline Hanson destroyed a conservative Queensland government and caused massive headaches for Howard as prime minister. Clive Palmer, another eruption on the Queensland Right, helped ­destroy another conservative Queensland government and helped make the Senate an ­institution of negativity and blind obstruction.

Abbott lost the Liberal leadership 54 votes to 44 votes. Given that there were 20 Nationals MPs who probably overwhelmingly supported him but could not vote in the leadership ballot, it may well be that a prime minister who commanded majority support in the governing coalition parties nonetheless lost the leadership.

For all that, Abbott would need to make massive psychological and stylistic changes to make any rapprochement work.

Abbott has to own the mistakes that he made in government, own them psychologically and politically. He was subject to brutally unfair media treatment and treachery from his colleagues, but he also made massive mistakes that cost his government dear.

He must disassemble the sense of a leader’s court in exile involving his former senior staff.

He needs to do far fewer doorstop interviews and make his ­interventions on policy through substantial speeches and opinion articles, although he should in time resume his old pre-leadership practice of appearing on programs such as Q&A. He should resume his old identity of the happy warrior, the cheerful conservative, the friend to all.

Abbott is not popular now, so he has no chance of a return to the leadership any time soon. Any ­return is a long shot and he would be well served by declaring publicly, and at least semi-honestly, that he has no such ambitions.

Howard and Turnbull were both very unpopular when they lost the Liberal leadership. They both declared they no longer had any interest in the leadership. It was the better part of a decade, and several political cycles later, before their respective resurrections made them viable leaders.

It is noteworthy that President Barack Obama, in dispatching special forces to Syria, is following exactly the suggestion Abbott made in a policy intervention that Julie Bishop and Marise Payne foolishly denounced.

Abbott’s appeal to certain sectors of the electorate — older Australians, bushies, Queensland Nats, social conservatives — complements Turnbull’s.

Those conservative Liberals who think that if Turnbull wins the next election it will be a reward for treachery are crazy. Almost every modern political leader has come to office in a partyroom challenge to their predecessor.

Those small-“l” Liberals who think that Abbott is permanently toxic and must be destroyed have no understanding of the structures of their own side of politics.

Greg Hunt has shown in ­climate policy the power of ­uniting Abbott and Turnbull in a common purpose.

The Liberal Party cannot base its future on a repudiation of everything Abbott stands for. ­Remember the scale of Abbott’s political achievements. In the long run, the Turnbull government would be much stronger with ­Abbott in the cabinet.

[Neferti]

So? No comment from you about the "opinion" article you posted, Rorschach?

Do you agree or disagree?

[Rorschach]

Did you miss the bold and large Nef... the article is self explanatory... I made my position clear earlier.
Sometimes I just post info, sometimes I just post info that backs me up.

[mantra]

Abbott is not popular now, so he has no chance of a return to the leadership any time soon. Any ­return is a long shot and he would be well served by declaring publicly, and at least semi-honestly, that he has no such ambitions.

I hope he keeps nipping at Turnbull's heels. Turnbull's policy decisions are worrying. He lacks integrity unfortunately - Abbott doesn't - no matter how misguided he is. He mightn't have a chance of returning in the next couple of years, but Abbott can afford to wait. He's healthy and he's younger than Turnbull who seems to have aged a decade in less than a year.

[boxy]

Liberals wouldn't stoop to that sort of stuff. The adults are in charge now, Mantra.

[mantra]

Liberals wouldn't stoop to that sort of stuff. The adults are in charge now, Mantra.

Haha. Shorten is starting to look good again and that's a worry.

[Rorschach]

Poxy writes crap and you post delusions mantra... when did Shorten start looking good? I must have missed that.

[mellie]

The best thing Turnbull can do is just continue being his acrid self.... Abbott knows where his loyalties lie (it's with his nation who are still counting on him) ...it's yet to be decided when it comes to Turncoat Turnbull...who is yet to be accepted by our nation's people.

Abbott was chosen by the Australian people...Turnbull forced his member in where it wasn't wanted or desired.

[mellie]

Poxy writes crap and you post delusions mantra... when did Shorten start looking good? I must have missed that.

Don't get me started about that dwarf -headed freak at AWU meetings with his little clip-board...and pathetically trying to recite each American state backwards in reverse alphabetical order.

I knew Bill before he screwed behind his wife's (Debbie) back with his junior staffer and knocked her up.

Most of us prefered Debbie to Bill.


I think this was the problem.

I have a fantastic memory...

[mellie]

Best of all...I have a few little Gems I have been saving for a rainy day.

Bring on' the' Bill.