Not only is Labor support starting to improve, almost imperceptibly improve, Abbott’s PPM and approval are tanking rapidly.
When replying to a pollster you can say you love LNP but hate Abbott. You cannot do that once an election is in sight. An unpopular LOTO cannot and has not won an election.
Already Tone is backtracking from his “the sky is falling in” re the carbon price to “it will be a python hug not a cobra strike.” What that means is all his crap re the “carbon tax” was a lie. That is really going to do wonders for his approval ratings, not! So the support for the govt will creep up a little faster after 1st July, as will approval and PPM for Gillard.
Tone’s whole approach was to go for a quick knockout blow, force a by election so he could slide into government sans policies, sans costings, sans savings and sans scrutiny. That is how he used to box at Oxford, no style no grace just go in like a whirling dervish and hit as hard as he could. So every non–sitting day another stunt, moving boxes, gutting fish and preaching that the sky will fall in. Thomson, Slipper—oops, gonna be a LOT of blowback on Tone from those two!
Then we had Run Rabbot Run:
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and now the retreat from the sky is falling and we can say Tone is finished, flat on his back on the floor of the ring and the referee is counting 5. .6. . but it will take quite a few months before the polls are dire enough for the Libs to seriously start contemplating a change of Leader, not that is there a lot of talent in the Howardista dregs that make up the Liberal Parliamentary Party.
Three polls, Newspol 32, Essential 33 and the Nielsen. Rejoice in the Nielsen if you like, I have pointed out the Green and Other support are way too high and that I think it too is in the 32-33 range. You might even find polls in the last week of June are a bit worse for Labor as some get last minute nerves about the carbon price but after that there will be a remorseless tide of bad news for Lib supporters.
Complicating things for the Libs are that the MRRT and NBN are very popular and Turnbull is not fooling nobody with his stupid NBN criticisms and replacements—those that have the NBN have signed up overwhelmingly for the 100/40 or the 50/20 plans. The NBN is no white elephant.
Even if Labor is still way behind with the election near I would still be confident—Tone is going to have to explain all his costings and savings for rescinding the CP/NBN/MRRT and restoring the private insurance health rebate etc etc and show a surplus and all that. Can’t be done.
Oh, and Nats numbers in Parliament might gradually decline, with Greens and Katter’s Party taking Nationals’ seats. Might be a VERY long time before a right of centre party form government again.