Poll Tracking

[Jovial Monk]

Essential Research has 48:42 steady, and this question:



Essential poll: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/fi ... 191009.pdf

Question on handling og GFC:

The results followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to think the Rudd Government is addressing the crisis well (94%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think the Government is addressing it poorly (52%). However, 40% of Coalition voters think the Rudd Government is addressing the crisis well.

A huge chunk of Coalition supporter think Labor has done a good job with the economy. The Fibs have to be thinking of securing their base rather than trying to increase support.

If you read the report you will find that none of the Lib lines-debt, spending etc, are having any resonance out there. Essential Research is biased (in their sampling algorythm) to Labor but as we don't judge the state of things from one poll but from a trend over many polls that doesn't really matter. They do ask interesting questions, more than the others.

[Lefteee]

A beautiful set of numbers

Well, not if you're coalition. Current phone poll average: 109 seats to Labor (Possum)

[Lefteee]

Hmm. When not far short of half of your constituents think that the other mob are handling the economy well, then you're probably in poo up to your eyebrows.

[Jovial Monk]

Yeah, when you are frantically busy shoring up your base you can't go out and attract swingers to your side. And the demographic trainwreck for the Coalition means they MUST be out there garnering support from the young. They are fucked.

[Jovial Monk]

The Qld and NSW redistributions have been done and Antony Green has drawn the Electoral Pendulem. Possum has had a look at it.

The Libs are up shit creek. yet, as Possum points out, they aren't even doing the 1% things that do very little but in combination may save or win a seat or two. E.g. Fran Bailey is retiring, yet sits behind the dispatch box in QT where she gets good exposure? Don't they have someone in a marginal seat who would actually benefit from such exposure? (Yup, about 20 )

I think their advertising come the election will be all firewalling their safe seats, those over 6% margin!