The fundamental operating model of Australian politics is breaking down. The data, from the Australian Election Study (AES), reveals the dramatic polarisation of Australian politics over the last two decades. In 1996 more than one in three Australian politicians (37 per cent) rated themselves as “moderate” – that is, centre-left Liberal and centre-right Labor politicians. This share has shrunk dramatically. At the most recent federal election in 2016 only one in 10 politicians described themselves as moderate.
The AES data shows an unprecedented level of anger and frustration directed towards our politicians. More than half of all voters think politicians are out of touch – a record high in the survey’s history. Only a quarter them believe our elected leaders are doing the right thing – another all-time low.
So people like Juliar and Leftwhinger are in the vast minority. The problem remains though...
the tribal voters who even though they are angry and frustrated at our pollies, they none the less still vote for the same parties over and over again.
The political implications of increasing voter polarisation are profound: the fundamental operating model of Australian politics is breaking down. That operating model was based on the “median voter principle”, which assumes that the electorate is a continuum from conservatives on one side to progressives on the other. The combination of compulsory voting and a two-party system meant that the strategy to win the most votes in Australian politics was always to position your party as close to the median voter as possible.
As the electorate becomes more divided, this operating model isn’t working nearly as smoothly as it once did. More ideological voters don’t want centrist compromise, which is why they keep rewarding parties that decry it.
Yet given 2pp system where
voting is compulsory and preferences are compulsory we in the end give our votes on the whole to one of the two major parties. We do this because our vote is counted as invalid if we do not number all the boxes. hence we must give our vote to a party we might not wish it to go to.
There are occasional flashes of good news for the majors, like the recent strong showing in Tasmanian state election, but for the most part the majors have struggled to adapt. They are leaking votes to minor parties and facing an internal power shift from centrist factions to hard-line activists.
Ah yes those hard-line activist eh CFMEU.... Unions, Get Up, etc, etc, etc....
Major political parties will also need to adapt their structures. Over the last quarter century, they have allowed their membership to dwindle and their organisational wings to succumb to hyper-centralised control, opaque preselections, divvying out of political favours and dubious donations. In an increasingly ideological world, major parties can’t rely on compulsory voting to bring out their supporters. They will need to re-build their structures in ways that build respect, trust, authenticity, conviction and participation.
Whoever they vote for, people will also have to adjust the way they assess and reward politicians if they want our national parliament to function more effectively. Rather than reward absolutism, voters will need to reward politicians, and political parties, who can cooperate and achieve agreement across political battle lines. This will be a major adjustment for many voters steeped in the tribalism of post-war Australian politics.
Hope you got that CFMEU... I know you and your ALP identify to all the negatives mentioned. More than in any other political party.
Hundreds of readers responded to our invitation to discuss the failings of Australia's political system, following a thought-provoking essay and data analysis from Lachlan Harris and Andrew Charlton.
A large majority agreed with the premise that Australia’s democracy was broken, although there were several eloquent responses in its defence.
As for why the system was broken, numerous common themes emerged in the responses:
A belief politicians lacked real world experience and frequently put their own party’s interests ahead of the national good by adopting short-term policy stances.
Suspicion that the party preselection process fails to throw up people who understand the majority of voters' concerns.
Numerous concerns about our electoral system, including whether voting should indeed be compulsory, preferential (in the House) or whether the Senate has become too obstructionist and/or unrepresentative.
The effect of donations on politics and the concept that politicians are too beholden to big business and/or the unions.
Failures of the mainstream media, including focusing too heavily on conflict and negative news, being partisan, providing ‘clickbait’ or not sufficiently holding politicians to account.
Aussie always wants a sauce. 
