Get ready for a Long Depression

Australian Federal, State and Local Politics
Forum rules
Don't poop in these threads. This isn't Europe, okay? There are rules here!
User avatar
IQSRLOW
Posts: 1514
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:26 pm

Re: Get ready for a Long Depression

Post by IQSRLOW » Thu Jul 01, 2010 7:11 pm

Jovial Monk wrote:IQ is such a moron, most of the EZ problems happened under conservative govts, like in Greece. In Spain the problem was rampant real estate fluctuations, etc etc.
You are a fucking idiot. Which party in Greece dominated over the last 30 years? Yes- that's right...the Social democrats and how's the country doing so far? :lol:

Socky the Sock.

Re: Get ready for a Long Depression

Post by Socky the Sock. » Tue May 31, 2011 7:09 am

Sappho wrote:
JM wrote:A much more commonsense point of view would be to redirect spending to grow the economy which will grow the tax base and trade accounts. In areas like the PIIGS, Balts etc wholesale cultural change is needed and this takes decades not years--but in the meantime people need to live and the area should contribute to a vibrant Europe.
The whole point of austerity measures is to reduce govt. spending to the essentials so that any remaining money can be directing into debt repayment. Govt. cannot afford to default on debts... the chain of consequences were they to default is mind boggling. Much of the money owed in Europe is to France and Germany and neither nation is in any position to retire debt obligations... they have their nations to run and a continuing financial crisis to manage.

I expect China to continue inflating their yuan. The US wants it and the US will pay... literally... for such demands. As global demand shrinks, expect China to turn its attention onto its own people by raising their standards of living and buying power.

Be very worried about any further 'too big to fail' banks, brokers and insurers failing, for they may learn that they are not too big to fail after all. Govts. are no longer in a position to bail out these megaliths of capitalism gone awry. Govts. have their own debts to consolidate and repay.
So after one year of beating around the bush, it is finally made clear that, as many were expecting all along, the ultimate goal of the Greek "bailouts" is nothing short of the state's (partial for now) annexation by Europe. According to an FT breaking news article, "European leaders are negotiating a deal that would lead to unprecedented outside intervention in the Greek economy, including international involvement in tax collection and privatisation of state assets, in exchange for new bail-out loans for Athens. People involved in the talks said the package would also include incentives for private holders of Greek debt voluntarily to extend Athens’ repayment schedule, as well as another round of austerity measures." Thus Greece is faced with the banker win-win choice, of not only abandoning sovereignty, a first in modern "democratic" history, in the pursuit of "Greek" policies that are beneficial for Europe, or not get a bailout, which would only serve to prevent senior bondholder impairments. How could Greek leaders and its population possibly not accept such an attractive option which either leaves the country as another Olli Rehn protectorate, or forces it to not bailout Europe's overleveraged banker class. In essence Europe is now convinced, just like Hank Paulson was on September 14, 2008, that the downstream effects from letting Greece implode are manageable. But the key development is that the Greek bankruptcy, which from the beginning, and as Peter Tchir's note below demonstrates, was always simply a Greek choice, was just made that much easier.

source
Hmmm.... I'm not convinced that letting Greece fail is a manageable risk.

Jovial Monk

Re: Get ready for a Long Depression

Post by Jovial Monk » Tue May 31, 2011 7:58 am

No? Why not?

Leftwinger
Posts: 357
Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2010 9:43 pm

Re: Get ready for a Long Depression

Post by Leftwinger » Sat Jun 04, 2011 5:12 pm

Austerity by national governments will generally fail. Simple as that. As JM has already pointed out, the total government sector surplus/deficit equals the total private sector deficit/surplus. Put simply, if the sum of the government sector budget is in the black then the sum of the private sector budget is automatically in the red, barring a large external surplus.

This is not an opinion. This is not a theory. This is not a political stance of any kind - it is devoid of politics, left or right. It is a basic fact of accounting at the national level - it is not subject to debate. To debate this fact is the equivalent of debating whether or not two plus two equals four.

When the total government budget is in surplus and the external sector is in deficit (the normal situation in Australia for over 100 years) or a surplus that is insufficiently large, private sector growth overall can only continue via increasing leverage. You will note that the decade-long government surplus in Australia was mirrored by the biggest run-up in private sector debt in our history. This was also true of a large majority of modern economies. But the private sector cannot keep increasing the size of it's debt indefinately. Households must sooner or later repair their balance sheets. This is where government austerity fails because the private sector cannot return to overall surplus (the historically normal situation - the past 10-15 years stand out as starkly abnormal) while government is squeezing the flow of financial assets to it through austerity policies. The attempt will only worsen the economic situation.

We haven't even gotten to basic mechanical differences between the modern day fiat monetary systems of national governments such as those of Australia, the US etc and systems of days gone by, such as the Bretton woods system (gold exchange standard) and the gold standard that preceeded that and how completely different the monetary systems of countries such as Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, France, Germany etc are to our own but the fact remains - austerity policies will fail and will only prolong the suffering.

Jovial Monk

Re: Get ready for a Long Depression

Post by Jovial Monk » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:17 pm

Postal Service Is Nearing Default as Losses Mount

The United States Postal Service has long lived on the financial edge, but it has never been as close to the precipice as it is today: the agency is so low on cash that it will not be able to make a $5.5 billion payment due this month and may have to shut down entirely this winter unless Congress takes emergency action to stabilize its finances.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/05/busin ... s&emc=tha2

And the Long Depression inches closer!

Jovial Monk

Re: Get ready for a Long Depression

Post by Jovial Monk » Tue Sep 06, 2011 10:31 am

I don't know if anyone remembers the Convoy of No Confidence? It was organised in fact by Jo Nova who has connections to the Heartland Institute (this is denied by Jo but is documented on wiki.) Anyway, I posted on Jo's site with some real, not right wingers as such, but complete fucking idiots including some yank Tea Baggers (I used to get censored a lot calling them that :bgrin ) Also for calling AGW deniers 'deniers.' Apparently that meant I was saying they were calling them Holocaust deniers

Wow, these people have only a tenuous connection with reality but they vote, oh yes they vote regardless of compulsory or voluntary voting. Very christian, very fundamentalist in christian and political beliefs. US unemployment is 9.9% but abortion and cutting spending are the urgent priorities. Just look at that Texan idiot running for President!

If the Teabaggers capture the White House next year and even the Senate then wow! Unemployment will shoot to 20, 30% enough so that means China will be in trouble. China is having trouble combating inflation and a real estate bubble anyway and their fixed exchange rate makes all that more difficult.

So that brings the next Long Depression even closer in big steps rather than the inching to it happening now.

The RBA board is sitting right now deciding whether to raise rates (they still consider that every meeting!) or leave them steady. I very much hope they will consider and act to cut rates. If not now then next month—they won't want to have to cut on the anniversary of their last, mistaken hike last November.

Jovial Monk

Re: Get ready for a Long Depression

Post by Jovial Monk » Wed Sep 07, 2011 10:55 pm

UNCTAD confirms the theme of this thread (and the much longer Austerity thread on my board:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/0 ... 50551.html

U.N. Study: Austerity Measures Pushing World Economy Toward Disaster
First Posted: 9/6/11 12:46 PM ET Updated: 9/6/11 02:06 PM ET

GENEVA (Tom Miles) - The pursuit of austerity measures and deficit cuts is pushing the world economy toward disaster in a misguided attempt to please global financial markets, the annual report of the United Nations economic thinktank UNCTAD said on Tuesday.

The report, entitled "Post-crisis policy challenges in the world economy," savaged U.S. and European economic policies and called for wage increases, stricter regulation of financial markets, including a return to a system of managed exchange rates, and a conscious break with market-led thinking.

"The message here is very pragmatic: we need to reverse our course quickly," said UNCTAD Secretary General Supachai Panitchpakdi.

Supachai, a former head of the World Trade Organization, said the policy response to the crisis, with an emphasis on fiscal tightening, was misconceived and inept.

The report's lead author Heiner Flassbeck said the global economic situation was extremely dangerous and, without more stimulus, a decade of stagnation was the best-case scenario.
Decade of stagnation is putting it mildly. Great bloody Depression more like! If Abbot gets in and they try and find their $100Bn of savings we will join the rest of the world in ever deceasing employment and ever increasing deficit!

Jovial Monk

Re: Get ready for a Long Depression

Post by Jovial Monk » Fri Sep 09, 2011 1:35 pm

HMMM Obama has been reading my posts :bgrin :bgrin :bgrin
Urging Congress to "stop the political circus," President Obama on Thursday night called for immediate action on a $447 billion package of spending initiatives and tax cuts designed to jump-start the stalling economy.

"The people of this country work hard to meet their responsibilities. The question tonight is whether we'll meet ours," Mr. Obama said in a fiery speech before a rare joint session of Congress. "The question is whether, in the face of an ongoing national crisis, we can stop the political circus and actually do something to help the economy."

In the face of the worst recovery from a recession in the nation's history, a stubborn unemployment rate hovering around 9 percent and zero job growth in the month of August, the pressure is on the president to take action. The challenges remain daunting, however, as Republicans in Congress are taking a combative stance against the president's policies, with 14 months to go before the 2012 elections.

Dubbed the "American Jobs Act," the plan Mr. Obama is sending to Congress is larger than many expected. More than half of the plan is tax cuts for working Americans and small businesses. It also includes spending initiatives in areas like infrastructure. While a package that costs hundreds of billions may be hard to swallow for a Congress that's been more focused this year on deficit reduction, the president is signaling to Republicans that they're also responsible for the poor economy.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162- ... 03544.html

Don't like the personal tax cuts, absolutely minimal stimulus value. Need to undo the Bush tax cuts that are killing the fucking Budget!

One of the measures is work at 35,000 schools! Wonder who told him about our brilliant BER program?

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 50 guests