Upper Hunter By-Election

[Black Orchid]

D-day has arrived in the NSW Upper Hunter, as voters head to the polls for a by-election that could steal the Berejiklian government's majority or topple the opposition leader.

Polling stations in the Upper Hunter electorate opened at 8am on Saturday, with 13 would-be parliamentarians on the ballot.

Candidates and leaders are scurrying around the NSW electorate in a bid to shore up votes, with recent polling suggesting a tight race between Nationals candidate David Layzell and Labor's Jeff Drayton.

More than 40 per cent of the electorate had already made their minds up before Saturday, with some 23,000 votes cast early.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/voters-head ... t-for-coal

Coal mining is the life blood of the Upper Hunter and Nationals have held the seat for 90 years. A must win for both Gladys and McKay.

[Redneck]

I am a member of ALP with lots of connections to the Hunter Valley and would like them to win, however that seems unlikely!

One good thing may result if they lose, Jodi McKay might be booted as leader.

[Black Orchid]

I'd like to see McKay booted and just don't like her at all. Chris Minns would have been a far better choice to lead and I feel McKay got the job just because she is a woman. She's useless and no match for Gladys.

[Black Orchid]

Nationals win easily. Labor polled very poorly. One Nation surprised everyone.

A huge sigh of relief for the government. It held the seat and managed a swing in its favour, which will deflect any questions about its low first preference vote. The government will feel more confident if it is forced to by-elections in either Drummoyne or Kiama, the seats held by Liberals turned Independent members.

Upper Hunter is not a Labor seat, but they would have expected a better result. The fact its vote was down the most in polling places where One Nation did best will be a concern for the party. No doubt there will now be rumbles about Jodi McKay's leadership, but Labor's poor result is about more than just the leader's image.

When One Nation first emerged in the period 1998-2001, its vote seemed to be at the expense of the Liberal Party. One Nation often polled well in Labor seats, but mainly by splitting the vote of the lower polling Liberal Party. The trend seems to have changed in the last few years, with the One Nation results at the 2019 Federal election, and at this by-election, seemingly drawn more from Labor's vote.

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers have done well at NSW by-elections since their breakthrough win at the 2016 Orange by-election, and also gained two seats at the 2019 state election. But this was without competition from One Nation. Under the NSW system of optional preferential voting, the SFF and One Nation will ruin each others chances without an agreement not to contest against each other.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/u ... commentary

[Gordon]

I am a member of ALP with lots of connections to the Hunter Valley and would like them to win, however that seems unlikely!

One good thing may result if they lose, Jodi McKay might be booted as leader.

As BO said below, Chris Minns seems like a decent bloke. Glady is still doing a great job but all Govts need an effective opposition and NSW Labor have been dead for 10 years. LOL remember Luke Foley....!!